Browsing by Author "Horn, Carsten"

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    An exploratory study into select technical key performance Indicators and estimated transfer fees in the 2nd division of the German Bundesliga
    (Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 2023-03) Horn, Carsten; Jacobs, Shaundre; Lamberts, Robert; Meyer, Tim; Stellenbosch University. Faculty of Medical and Health Sciences. Dept. of Exercise, Sport and Lifestyle Medication.
    ENGLISH ABSTRACT: In light of the escalating transfer fees in professional football, an inflated market and clubs having to adjust their budgets due to the ongoing restrictions resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic, accurate financial management of sporting organisations is required. This especially applies to football clubs playing outside Europe’s big five leagues, as well as those in the lower divisions of professional football. The overall aim of this MSc project was to shed light on a second division league which has previously received less attention than first divisions. More specifically, the current study assessed how a player’s performance in the season immediately before his transfer influenced his transfer fee. This was done through the lens of the Moneyball approach, which states that specific characteristics and/or skills are being undervalued by the labour market. As transfer fees can rise to millions of euros paired with clubs being under financial pressure, quantitative rather than intuitive decision-making is required. This study assessed the relationship between select technical key performance indicators (KPIs) and their relationship to estimated transfer fees in the 2nd division of the German Bundesliga, using publicly available data. The selected KPIs for defenders, midfielders and strikers were tackles and interceptions, tackles and assists, and goals and assists, respectively. A statistician was consulted for a sample size calculation and revealed a minimum of 12 participants per position (defender, midfielder, striker) were required. Statistical analysis was performed with the use of GraphPad Prism (Version 9.3.1, GraphPad Software, LLC, USA). Prior to statistical analyses, normality tests were conducted using the Kolmogorov-Smirnoff and Shapiro-Wilk tests. A Kruskal Wallis test was employed to assess the differences between the various player positions. Where significant differences were found, a Dunn’s post hoc test was performed. Associations between variables were tested for by means of Spearman correlations. All data are presented as median, and significance was set at p < 0.05. Analyses revealed that interceptions have no association with the transfer fees of defenders (rs=0.06, p=0.76). Tackles were found to be negatively associated with the transfer fees of defenders (rs=-0.41, p=0.03), while no association was found between tackles and the transfer fees of midfielders (rs= 0.17, p=0.24). Midfielders’ transfer fees displayed a positive association with assists (rs=0.44, p=0.00), while no association was found between the transfer fees of strikers and assists (rs=0.15, p=0.34). In addition, strikers’ transfer fees also did not display any association with goals (rs=0.22, p=0.16). As interceptions were found to be negatively associated with the transfer fees of defenders, it is possible that interceptions are being undervalued. However, as more successful teams tend to dominate ball possession, it is likely that players from less successful teams have more opportunity to intercept a ball, and, as less success reduces transfer fees, this would explain this association. Tackles, on the other hand, may display a negative association with transfer fees of defenders as tackles may be a sign of an error prone and/or tactically inapt player, as tackles may be used to recover from tactical and/or technical errors. Assists’ positive association with the transfer fees of midfielders is explained by the increased chances of success with an increased number of assists. Consequently, one would also expect such an association for strikers. However, previous studies have found that the transfer fees of strikers in higher divisions are associated with a publicity premium. Consequently, it is hypothesised, that due to the reduced media attention in the lower leagues, this publicity premium only exists to a much smaller degree and thereby reduces the extend to which assists influence strikers’ transfer fees. The same reasoning applies to how goals influence a strikers transfer fees, as goals also did not show an association with the transfer fees of strikers. As the current study did not control for players moving up or down a division, results need to be interpreted with caution. The findings support previous research with tackles displaying a negative association with the transfer fees of defenders and assists displaying a positive association with the transfer fees of midfielders. However, as opposed to most other leagues, goals are not the determining factor for the transfer fees of strikers transferring to or within the 2nd division of the Bundesliga. This implies that other characteristics and/or KPIs may be at play that impact the transfer fees of strikers significantly more than the selected ones, and future research is tasked with identifying these.