Browsing by Author "Forest, Felix"

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    Consistent phenological shifts in the making of a biodiversity hotspot : the Cape flora
    (BioMed Central, 2011-02) Warren, Ben H.; Bakker, Freek T.; Bellstedt, Dirk U.; Bytebier, Benny; Claszen-Bockhoff, Regine; Dreyer, Leanne L.; Edwards, Dawn; Forest, Felix; Galley, Chloe; Hardy, Christopher R.; Linder, H. Peter; Muasya, A. Muthama; Mummenhoff, Klaus; Oberlander, Kenneth C.; Quint, Marcus; Richardson, James E.; Savolainen, Vincent; Schrire, Brian D.; Van der Niet, Timotheus; Verboom, G. Anthony; Yesson, Christopher; Hawkins, Julie A.
    ABSTRACT: Background: The best documented survival responses of organisms to past climate change on short (glacial-interglacial) timescales are distributional shifts. Despite ample evidence on such timescales for local adaptations of populations at specific sites, the long-term impacts of such changes on evolutionary significant units in response to past climatic change have been little documented. Here we use phylogenies to reconstruct changes in distribution and flowering ecology of the Cape flora - South Africa's biodiversity hotspot - through a period of past (Neogene and Quaternary) changes in the seasonality of rainfall over a timescale of several million years. Results: Forty-three distributional and phenological shifts consistent with past climatic change occur across the flora, and a comparable number of clades underwent adaptive changes in their flowering phenology (9 clades; half of the clades investigated) as underwent distributional shifts (12 clades; two thirds of the clades investigated). Of extant Cape angiosperm species, 14-41% have been contributed by lineages that show distributional shifts consistent with past climate change, yet a similar proportion (14-55%) arose from lineages that shifted flowering phenology. Conclusions: Adaptive changes in ecology at the scale we uncover in the Cape and consistent with past climatic change have not been documented for other floras. Shifts in climate tolerance appear to have been more important in this flora than is currently appreciated, and lineages that underwent such shifts went on to contribute a high proportion of the flora's extant species diversity. That shifts in phenology, on an evolutionary timescale and on such a scale, have not yet been detected for other floras is likely a result of the method used; shifts in flowering phenology cannot be detected in the fossil record.
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    Extinction risk and diversification are linked in a plant biodiversity hotspot
    (Public Library of Science, 2011-05) Davies, T. Jonathan; Smith, Gideon F.; Bellstedt, Dirk U.; Boatwright, James S.; Bytebier, Benny; Cowling, Richard M.; Forest, Felix; Harmon, Luke J.; Muasya, A. Muthama; Schrire, Brian D.; Steenkamp, Yolande; Van der Bank, Michelle; Savolainen, Vincent
    It is widely recognized that we are entering an extinction event on a scale approaching the mass extinctions seen in the fossil record. Present-day rates of extinction are estimated to be several orders of magnitude greater than background rates and are projected to increase further if current trends continue. In vertebrates, species traits, such as body size, fecundity, and geographic range, are important predictors of vulnerability. Although plants are the basis for life on Earth, our knowledge of plant extinctions and vulnerabilities is lagging. Here, we disentangle the underlying drivers of extinction risk in plants, focusing on the Cape of South Africa, a global biodiversity hotspot. By comparing Red List data for the British and South African floras, we demonstrate that the taxonomic distribution of extinction risk differs significantly between regions, inconsistent with a simple, trait-based model of extinction. Using a comprehensive phylogenetic tree for the Cape, we reveal a phylogenetic signal in the distribution of plant extinction risks but show that the most threatened species cluster within short branches at the tips of the phylogeny—opposite to trends in mammals. From analyzing the distribution of threatened species across 11 exemplar clades, we suggest that mode of speciation best explains the unusual phylogenetic structure of extinction risks in plants of the Cape. Our results demonstrate that explanations for elevated extinction risk in plants of the Cape flora differ dramatically from those recognized for vertebrates. In the Cape, extinction risk is higher for young and fast-evolving plant lineages and cannot be explained by correlations with simple biological traits. Critically, we find that the most vulnerable plant species are nonetheless marching towards extinction at a more rapid pace but, surprisingly, independently from anthropogenic effects. Our results have important implications for conservation priorities and cast doubts on the utility of current Red List criteria for plants in regions such as the Cape, where speciation has been rapid, if our aim is to maximize the preservation of the tree-of-life.