Browsing by Author "Flores Quiroz, Natalia"
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- ItemFire Investigations for Informal Settlements(Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 2021-12) Flores Quiroz, Natalia; Walls, Richard Shaun; Stellenbosch University. Faculty of Engineering. Dept. of Civil Engineering.ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Fires in informal settlements (IS) are a significant problem in developing countries. According to the South African national statistics, 5544 IS fire incidents were reported during 2019. Although informal settlement fires only account for 11.6% (on average) of all fires, they cause approximately 40% of the total number of fatalities. It is with this backdrop that this dissertation seeks to develop an understanding of real IS fires. We need to know: what is causing fires? How do fires spread? What stops fires from spreading? How are fires put out? How many people are affected in an incident? How do inhabitants respond during an incident? To start answering these this work considers (a) the development of a framework for fire investigations in informal settlements (FFIIS), (b) the analysis of a real IS fire incident, (c) the application of the FFIIS to large post-flashover IS fires, and (d) work to understand the fire causes in IS fires. First, the FFIIS that applies well-known forensic fire investigation principles and guidelines is developed in order to (a) identify the fire origin and the fire cause, (b) obtain data on human behaviour in fire, (c) understand the fire spread sequence, and (d) evaluate the effectiveness of suppression and response efforts. Then, a real IS fire that was recorded by a transit CCTV camera is analysed. The analysis allows for the study of (a) the fire spread, (b) the human behaviour, and (c) firefighters’ response and operations. After this, the FFIIS is applied to three real fire events. The application of the FFIIS allows one to develop hypotheses that more accurately define the area of fire origin and pattern formation sequence. Understanding the limitations and the quality of the information that can be obtained when applying the FFIIS is fundamental to improve the guidelines proposed. The work carried out reveals the difficulty in obtaining information pertaining to the fire cause of IS fires. Hence, to gain a better understanding of this topic a different approach was taken, whereby the fire risk perception of IS inhabitants is analysed. The analysis suggests that (a) the survey’s risk target had a strong influence on the risk perception, (b) the inhabitants’ fire risk perception of their settlement is similar to that of firefighters in previous research, (c) the risk mitigation proposals are mainly focused on decreasing the consequences of the fire, (d) the national fire statistics are not capturing the causes of real fire incidents, and (e) improvement of the documentation process after a fire event could provide critical information to implement prevention measures. A better understanding on IS fires, through the investigation of past fire events, can be used to facilitate the design of prevention plans that respond specifically to informal settlements requirements, develop or validate fire spread models, enhance firefighter response and training, plan for incidents, and develop community fire awareness. This work may be applicable to other low- income communities such as refugee camps, markets, IS in other countries with different conditions, and similar settlements.