Browsing by Author "Dullinger, Stefan"

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    An integrated, spatio-temporal modelling framework for analysing biological invasions
    (Wiley, 2018) Mang, Thomas; Essl, Franz; Moser, Dietmar; Kleinbauer, Ingrid; Dullinger, Stefan; Lahoz-Monfort, Jose J.
    Aim: We develop a novel modelling framework for analysing the spatio-temporal spread of biological invasions. The framework integrates different invasion drivers and disentangles their roles in determining observed invasion patterns by fitting models to historical distribution data. As a case study application, we analyse the spread of common ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia). Location: Central Europe. Methods: A lattice system represents actual landscapes with environmental heterogeneity. Modelling covers the spatio-temporal invasion sequence in this grid and integrates the effects of environmental conditions on local invasion suitability, the role of invaded cells and spatially implicit “background” introductions as propagule sources, within-cell invasion level bulk-up and multiple dispersal means. A modular framework design facilitates flexible numerical representation of the modelled invasion processes and customization of the model complexity. We used the framework to build and contrast increasingly complex models, and fitted them using a Bayesian inference approach with parameters estimated by Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). Results: All modelled invasion drivers codetermined the A. artemisiifolia invasion pattern. Inferences about individual drivers depended on which processes were modelled concurrently, and hence changed both quantitatively and qualitatively between models. Among others, the roles of environmental variables were assessed substantially differently subject to whether models included explicit source-recipient cell relationships, spatio-temporal variability in source cell strength and human-mediated dispersal means. The largest fit improvements were found by integrating filtering effects of the environment and spatio-temporal availability of propagule sources. Main conclusions: Our modelling framework provides a straightforward means to build integrated invasion models and address hypotheses about the roles and mutual relationships of different putative invasion drivers. Its statistical nature and generic design make it suitable for studying many observed invasions. For efficient invasion modelling, it is important to represent changes in spatio-temporal propagule supply by explicitly tracking the species’ colonization sequence and establishment of new populations.
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    Projecting the continental accumulation of alien species through to 2050
    (John Wiley & Sons, 2020) Seebens, Hanno; Bacher, Sven; Blackburn, Tim M.; Capinha, Cesar; Dawson, Wayne; Dullinger, Stefan; Genovesi, Piero; Hulme, Philip E.; Van Kleunen, Mark; Kuhn, Ingolf; Jeschke, Jonathan M.; Lenzner, Bernd; Liebhold, Andrew M.; Pattison, Zarah; Pergl, Jan; Pysek, Petr; Winter, Marten; Essl, Franz
    Biological invasions have steadily increased over recent centuries. However, we still lack a clear expectation about future trends in alien species numbers. In particular, we do not know whether alien species will continue to accumulate in regional floras and faunas, or whether the pace of accumulation will decrease due to the depletion of native source pools. Here, we apply a new model to simulate future numbers of alien species based on estimated sizes of source pools and dynamics of historical invasions, assuming a continuation of processes in the future as observed in the past (a business‐as‐usual scenario). We first validated performance of different model versions by conducting a back‐casting approach, therefore fitting the model to alien species numbers until 1950 and validating predictions on trends from 1950 to 2005. In a second step, we selected the best performing model that provided the most robust predictions to project trajectories of alien species numbers until 2050. Altogether, this resulted in 3,790 stochastic simulation runs for 38 taxon–continent combinations. We provide the first quantitative projections of future trajectories of alien species numbers for seven major taxonomic groups in eight continents, accounting for variation in sampling intensity and uncertainty in projections. Overall, established alien species numbers per continent were predicted to increase from 2005 to 2050 by 36%. Particularly, strong increases were projected for Europe in absolute (+2,543 ± 237 alien species) and relative terms, followed by Temperate Asia (+1,597 ± 197), Northern America (1,484 ± 74) and Southern America (1,391 ± 258). Among individual taxonomic groups, especially strong increases were projected for invertebrates globally. Declining (but still positive) rates were projected only for Australasia. Our projections provide a first baseline for the assessment of future developments of biological invasions, which will help to inform policies to contain the spread of alien species.
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    Role of diversification rates and evolutionary history as a driver of plant naturalization success
    (Wiley, 2020) Lenzner, Bernd; Magallon, Susana; Dawson, Wayne; Kreft, Holger; Konig, Christian; Pergl, Jan; Pysek, Petr; Weigelt, Patrick; Van Kleunen, Mark; Winter, Marten; Dullinger, Stefan; Essl, Franz
    ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Human introductions of species beyond their natural ranges and their subsequent establishment are defining features of global environmental change. However, naturalized plants are not uniformly distributed across phylogenetic lineages, with some families contributing disproportionately more to the global alien species pool than others. Additionally, lineages differ in diversification rates, and high diversification rates have been associated with characteristics that increase species naturalization success. Here, we investigate the role of diversification rates in explaining the naturalization success of angiosperm plant families. We use five global data sets that include native and alien plant species distribution, horticultural use of plants, and a time-calibrated angiosperm phylogeny. Using phylogenetic generalized linear mixed models, we analysed the effect of diversification rate, different geographical range measures, and horticultural use on the naturalization success of plant families. We show that a family's naturalization success is positively associated with its evolutionary history, native range size, and economic use. Investigating interactive effects of these predictors shows that native range size and geographic distribution additionally affect naturalization success. High diversification rates and large ranges increase naturalization success, especially of temperate families. We suggest this may result from lower ecological specialization in temperate families with large ranges, compared with tropical families with smaller ranges.