Browsing by Author "Cronje, Barend Jacobus"
Now showing 1 - 1 of 1
Results Per Page
Sort Options
- ItemA framework to support the decision-making process for modelling of communicable diseases(Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 2019-04) Cronje, Barend Jacobus; Bam, Louzanne; Stellenbosch University. Faculty of Engineering. Dept. of Industrial Engineering.ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Infectious disease outbreaks have the potential to disrupt and strain the global health care system, even more so when a localised disease outbreak propagates rapidly to a large area. Such a disease outbreak is referred to as a pandemic disease outbreak. Pandemic outbreaks often inspire global collaboration between researchers and modelling practitioners with a view to devise strategies, disease propagation models and actions on how to address the outbreak. Modelling of infectious disease is a complex endeavour. The literature on the available modelling approaches and general application to disease modelling is well documented in the literature. What is, however, less evident, especially to a modelling practitioner with less rigorous modelling experience, is the selection and consideration of modelling considerations based on the specific context of the disease outbreak. To address this challenge, a modelling support framework is designed in this research project, with a view to formalise the most salient universal modelling steps and assist novice modelling practitioners in the consideration and selection of appropriate approaches for modelling infectious diseases. The research consists of three phases, namely the design and execution of a structured literature review, analysis of the findings of the literature review, and the construction of a modelling support and guidance framework. During the first phase of the research, the chain of infection is used as an overarching metaphor to guide the process in identifying relevant considerations, disease characteristics and contextual factors which may potentially affect disease propagation, and this is used as the basis for determining the scope of the structured literature review. The review is designed to construct a sufficiently detailed dataset which is well representative of the various modelling approaches as applied in literature. The 283 identified literature pieces are methodically analysed and the relevant modelling considerations, disease characteristics and contextual factors from each of the pieces are captured to the dataset. During the second phase of the research the dataset is analysed. The modelling considerations are analysed in relation to the disease transmission mode, and the relationship between modelling considerations are also analysed. In general, the selection of modelling approaches and considerations were not reducible to a single factor. This suggests that numerous factors must be considered in the model decision making process, and additionally, it highlights the importance of contextualising the disease outbreak. The third phase of the research consists of the framework construction. Both the first and the second phases of the research are used to inform and guide the framework construction. The framework is constructed with two goals in mind, namely to inform modelling considerations from a holistic viewpoint and to aid in the selection of the relevant modelling considerations. The framework use is verified with an illustrative case study and validated with semi-structured interviews that are conducted with external subject matter experts with a background in engineering and health care modelling.