Browsing by Author "Coetzee, Lezanie"

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    Modelling Drug Abuse and Drug-related Crime: A Systems Approach
    (Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 2015-12) Coetzee, Lezanie; Nyabadza, Farai; Stellenbosch University. Faculty of Science. Department Mathematical Sciences (Mathematics)
    ENGLISH ABSTRACT : In this study we look at the syndemic of substance abuse and drug-related crime in the Western Cape province of South Africa. The intent of this study is to provoke critical thinking about the possibilities systems thinking and system dynamics posses for social and health challenges in a diverse and complex environment like that of South Africa, especially the Western Cape. This study ventures into cross-discipline work between Epidemiology, Biomathematics and System Dynamics, with the hope of encouraging researchers from different fields to collaborate in order to curb the scourge of substance abuse and drug-related crime in South Africa. Substance abuse and the associated health and social hazards such as drug-related crime is a major problem in the Western Cape. Drug-related crime cases reported by the South African Police Services (SAPS) for the Western Cape exhibited a 311.5% growth in the past decade. This highlights how the reduction of substance abuse and drug-related crime within theWestern Cape province, will be an elixir for the safety and development of the communities. The fight against substance abuse has been driven by a multi-sectorial approach involving several government departments, non-governmental organisations and communities. With systems thinking the assumption is that the world is systemic, which means that phenomena is understood to be an emergent property of the interrelated whole. Firstly, using non-linear ordinary differential equations, we formulate a deterministic mathematical model for the substance abuse and drug-related crime syndemic, evaluate the threshold number and use sensitivity analysis to analyze the model. Secondly, a dynamic system, called the Substance Abuse and Drug-related Crime in theWestern Cape (SADC-WC) system is constructed using the STELLA in order to explore and classify the underlying relationships and structures within the substance abuse and drug-related crime system. Both the sensitivity analysis, and the simulations of the SADC-WC system indicate that an increase of successful convictions will have a significant influence on the syndemic, and promise to reduce drug-related crime cases.
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    A systems dynamic model for drug abuse and drug-related crime in the Western Cape Province of South Africa
    (Hindawi Publishing Corporation, 2017) Nyabadza, Farai; Coetzee, Lezanie
    The complex problem of drug abuse and drug-related crimes in communities in the Western Cape province cannot be studied in isolation but through the system they are embedded in. In this paper, a theoretical model to evaluate the syndemic of substance abuse and drug-related crimes within the Western Cape province of South Africa is constructed and explored. The dynamics of drug abuse and drug-related crimes within the Western Cape are simulated using STELLA software. The simulation results are consistent with the data from SACENDU and CrimeStats SA, highlighting the usefulness of such a model in designing and planning interventions to combat substance abuse and its related problems.