Browsing by Author "Cloete, Johanna Cecilia"
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- ItemInvestigating farm-level exit decisions and exit rates in commercial agriculture in South Africa, an agent-based approach(Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 2022-04) Cloete, Johanna Cecilia; Hoffmann, Willem H.; Greyling, Jan C.; Mann, Stefan; Stellenbosch University. Faculty of Economic and Management Sciences. Dept. of Agricultural Economics.ENGLISH SUMMARY : Land supply is an undeniable but neglected component in the agriculture transformation debate, with discussions on and research in the field of structural change in the sector considered overdue. The structural transformation of the agricultural sector rests on the interplay between exogenous and endogenous decisions in the agricultural sector that feed back into the sector’s operations, as a collective, and the role players within it as individuals. Ignoring the factors that motivate commercial producers to exit farming has resulted in a substantial gap in the literature regarding this important component of land reform. This study aimed to uncover the reasons that lead to decisions to exit or stay by making use of an analytically rigorous process to bridge the land supply literature gap. Considering the ex-post review of commercial agriculture over the last 100 years and its learnings, this study explores how an ex-ante modelling analysis approach to the planned and potential effects on producer numbers over the next ten years can enhance land-use planning. A core outcome of this study is the creation of a baseline projection for remaining in or exiting from primary agriculture, and how the exploration of the underlying factors in individuals’ strategic decision-making can inform policy and affect structural change. Three methods are applied in this study. The characteristics of producers planning to exit were identified through clustering. A consequent regression analysis determined the drivers of the ex-ante decision to exit or remain in agriculture, highlighting the interplay between business climate and capital invested. An agent-based model was constructed to create a virtual laboratory in which the output provides insight into how the structure of the sector – demographics, land use, production output, farm size and numbers – will change as the aggregate of the decisions made at the individual farm level drives the structural change at a sector level. Findings from the cluster analysis show that farm exit decisions are affected by financial problems, access to dependable labour, uncertainty regarding land reform policy and concerns about rural safety. In the subsequent regression analysis that was performed to order the key drivers, age (as a categorical variable), cost of investment and financial constraints feature most prominently in the decision to exit, whilst the presence of production loans and business confidence are significant in countering the decision to exit. From the cluster and regression analyses, two alternative scenarios were constructed in which some factors that appear to keep producers locked in were removed. The outcomes thereof were then compared to the baseline exit rate from the extrapolated and upscaled survey data. The baseline and two alternative scenarios in the agent-based model provided exit rates of 22.43%, 25.63% and 34.81%, respectively over ten-year periods, with the structural effects of the different rates discussed at a sub-sector level. Consideration is given to the barriers to exit, which subsequently limit the opportunities and scope for new entrants into commercial agriculture. This output is a critical element in the continued interaction between demand for and supply of land in the land reform debate.
- ItemDie rol van waardetoevoeging in die produksie, verwerking en verspreiding van rooivleis in die Langeberg(Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 2012-03) Cloete, Johanna Cecilia; Vink, N.; Stellenbosch University. Faculty of AgriSciences. Dept. of Agricultural Economics.ENGLISH ABSTRACT: This study investigates, primarily, value adding in the red meat value chain, and secondary, the scope of red meat consumption in the Langeberg on a formal level. The value chain is proposed as a value system, since the latter dispose of feedback capacity. This ability of a system means that the elements identified can change and influence each other, unlike a value chain, where information is traditionally sent linearly. Vanaf a systems approach, the production, processing and distribution of red meat are investigated by means of a qualitative and quantitative analysis of data. Critical points of change are identified to improve resource use within the value chain in order to decrease the price of meat. Changes in the red meat industry over the past 80 years had a distinct influence on the current structure of the red meat value chain. It is therefore necessary to understand the history in order to predict the future. Vanaf this viewpoint the Red Meat Scheme is discussed, as well as the typical structure of the value chain, which serves as a benchmark for the analysis to follow. Red meat refers to beef, sheep/lamb and pork. The analysis of data is done using Interactive Qualitative Analysis© and descriptive statistics. Open and close ended questions are included in questionnaires for the interviews. Respondents included are role players in the Langeberg red meat industry which are situated in the area as well as those who are directly involved, but not situated in the area. Role players in the Langeberg include producers, feedlots, agents, abattoirs, supermarkets and butcheries, while wholesalers vanaf outside who are involved in the area, are also contacted. Some interesting finding vanaf the quantitative analysis include 1) supermarkets and butcheries in the Langeberg differ, on average, only 29c/kg on a selection of meat cuts, 2) labour is the single largest expense for the majority of respondents, and 3) the per capita consumption of red meat in the area is considerably lower that the national norm: 15.78kg versus 25.39kg. If is apparent that the role of the informal market cannot be ignored and questions arise about the validity of the national norm. After analysing around 700 data cards the Red Meat Value System of the Langeberg were constructed. The most important characteristics of the system are that government regulations and supermarket standards seems to be the largest driver of change within the system, while price is the biggest receiver of influence (and therefore the largest “variable”). Recommendation that are supported by the analysis: Increase in genetic material of weaned animals leads to better quality meat; Direct supply by abattoirs to retailers increase both parties‟ ability to add value; Vertical integration in the value chain can increase the viability of enterprises; Availability of meat of different grading on retail level can increase the quality of carcasses within a given grading level; The regressive nature of VAT can decrease with the abolition of VAT on lower graded carcasses, while total abolition will benefit both the industry and consumers.