Browsing by Author "Blanchard, Ryan"

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    An assessment of the potential biodiversity impacts from biofuel production in South Africa
    (Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 2014-12) Blanchard, Ryan; Richardson, David M.; O'Farrell, Patrick J.; Stellenbosch University. Faculty of Science. Dept. of Botany and Zoology.
    ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Biofuels are being promoted as a global necessity to meet climate change targets through the replacement of fossil fuels. Many countries have identified biofuels as a potential mechanism to meet these challenges, with policy directives driving biofuel production. The South African government has proposed that biofuels form part of the country’s future renewable energy and has proposed a draft biofuel strategy. This study aims to investigate appropriate approaches to determine potential biodiversity impacts from biofuel production. Since biofuels are not currently grown to any large extent in South Africa, impact was modelled using future scenarios of converting available land within the Eastern Cape Province of South Africa. Suitable species were identified using the species distribution modelling programme MaxEnt. Some of the proposed biofuel crops were considered as invasive (i.e. they spread from sites where they are cultivated) or are very likely to be invasive in South Africa. This study also highlighted the considerable overlap between suitable growing areas and areas considered important for future biodiversity conservation. The biodiversity intactness index (BII), a broad based biodiversity indicator, was used to assess the biodiversity implications of transforming available land to biofuels. The BII indicates losses of biodiversity between 17.6% and 42.1% for the land use scenarios identified. An important finding was that excluding important biodiversity areas that occur outside of protected areas can reduce biodiversity losses by as much as 13% and maintain an overall intactness of ~70%. Currently the BII does not account for fragmentation or landscape configuration. This was addressed by developing a revised biodiversity intactness index (R-BII) which included the effect of patch-size and habitat fragmentation on biodiversity intactness. This study found that although the original BII reported on the biodiversity trends of large-scale shifts in land-use across multiple scales it could not detect changes in landscape configuration which was reflected by the R-BII. Land-use change can impact on ecosystem processes that underpin the provisioning of ecosystem services by changing the combinations of species and the plant functional traits within communities. The impacts of cultivating potential biofuel species (Acacia mearnsii, Sorghum halepense and Eucalyptus species) were investigated using a plant functional traits approach. These species were shown to affect the leaf nitrogen content, leaf phosphorous content and leaf dry matter content associated with important ecosystem functions within an ecosystem service hotspot in the Eastern Cape. A decline in functional diversity was reported for all transformed land-uses by as much as ~40%. These shifts may be used to identify potential changes to ecosystem services associated with natural vegetation. The methods used in this thesis highlight the overall relevance of this work and its importance to minimising biodiversity resulting from biofuel production. Some of the key findings address resolving spatial conflict, using biodiversity indicators, assessing impacts of potential invasive species and planning for ecosystem services. New drivers of change to land-use, such as biofuel production, are a major challenge to conservation biologists and planners and the insights derived in from this study can be successfully applied to guide biofuel production.
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    Biofuels and biodiversity in South Africa
    (ASSAF -- Academy of Science of South Africa, 2011-03) Blanchard, Ryan; Richardson, David M.; O'Farrell, Patrick J.; Von Maltitz, Graham P.
    The South African government, as part of its efforts to mitigate the effects of the ongoing energy crisis, has proposed that biofuels should form an important part of the country's energy supply. The contribution of liquid biofuels to the national fuel supply is expected to be at least 2% by 2013. The Biofuels Industrial Strategy of the Republic of South Africa of 2007 outlines key incentives for reaching this target and promoting the development of a sustainable biofuels industry. This paper discusses issues relating to this strategy as well as key drivers in biofuel processing with reference to potential impacts on South Africa's rich biological heritage. Our understanding of many of the broader aspects of biofuels needs to be enhanced. We identify key areas where challenges exist, such as the link between technology, conversion processes and feedstock selection. The available and proposed processing technologies have important implications for land use and the use of different non-native plant species as desired feedstocks. South Africa has a long history of planting non-native plant species for commercial purposes, notably for commercial forestry. Valuable lessons can be drawn from this experience on mitigation against potential impacts by considering plausible scenarios and the appropriate management framework and policies. We conceptualise key issues embodied in the biofuels strategy, adapting a framework developed for assessing and quantifying impacts of invasive alien species. In so doing, we provide guidelines for minimising the potential impacts of biofuel projects on biodiversity. © 2011. The Authors.
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    Biofuels and biodiversity in South Africa
    (Academy of Science of South Africa, 2011-05-03) Blanchard, Ryan; Richardson, David M.; O'Farrell, Patrick J.; Von Malititz, Graham P.
    ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The South African government, as part of its efforts to mitigate the effects of the ongoing energy crisis, has proposed that biofuels should form an important part of the country’s energy supply. The contribution of liquid biofuels to the national fuel supply is expected to be at least 2% by 2013. The Biofuels Industrial Strategy of the Republic of South Africa of 2007 outlines key incentives for reaching this target and promoting the development of a sustainable biofuels industry. This paper discusses issues relating to this strategy as well as key drivers in biofuel processing with reference to potential impacts on South Africa’s rich biological heritage. Our understanding of many of the broader aspects of biofuels needs to be enhanced. We identify key areas where challenges exist, such as the link between technology, conversion processes and feedstock selection. The available and proposed processing technologies have important implications for land use and the use of different non-native plant species as desired feedstocks. South Africa has a long history of planting non-native plant species for commercial purposes, notably for commercial forestry. Valuable lessons can be drawn from this experience on mitigation against potential impacts by considering plausible scenarios and the appropriate management framework and policies. We conceptualise key issues embodied in the biofuels strategy, adapting a framework developed for assessing and quantifying impacts of invasive alien species. In so doing, we provide guidelines for minimising the potential impacts of biofuel projects on biodiversity.
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    A continental-scale validation of ecosystem service models
    (Springer, 2019-04-22) Willcock, Simon; Hooftman, Danny A. P.; Balbi, Stefano; Blanchard, Ryan; Dawson, Terence P.; O’Farrell, Patrick J.; Hickler, Thomas; Hudson, Malcolm D.; Lindeskog, Mats; Martinez-Lopez, Javier; Mulligan, Mark; Reyers, Belinda; Shackleton, Charlie; Sitas, Nadia; Villa, Ferdinando; Watts, Sophie M.; Eigenbrod, Felix; Bullock, James M.
    Faced with environmental degradation, governments worldwide are developing policies to safeguard ecosystem services (ES). Many ES models exist to support these policies, but they are generally poorly validated, especially at large scales, which undermines their credibility. To address this gap, we describe a study of multiple models of five ES, which we validate at an unprecedented scale against 1675 data points across sub-Saharan Africa. We find that potential ES (biophysical supply of carbon and water) are reasonably well predicted by the existing models. These potential ES models can also be used as inputs to new models for realised ES (use of charcoal, firewood, grazing resources and water), by adding information on human population density. We find that increasing model complexity can improve estimates of both potential and realised ES, suggesting that developing more detailed models of ES will be beneficial. Furthermore, in 85% of cases, human population density alone was as good or a better predictor of realised ES than ES models, suggesting that it is demand, rather than supply that is predominantly determining current patterns of ES use. Our study demonstrates the feasibility of ES model validation, even in data-deficient locations such as sub-Saharan Africa. Our work also shows the clear need for more work on the demand side of ES models, and the importance of model validation in providing a stronger base to support policies which seek to achieve sustainable development in support of human well-being.
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    Exploring the usefulness of scenario archetypes in science-policy processes : experience across IPBES assessments
    (Resilience Alliance, 2019) Sitas, Nadia; Harmackova, Zuzana V.; Anticamara, Jonathan A.; Arneth, Almut; Badola, Ruchi; Biggs, Reinette, 1979-; Blanchard, Ryan; Brotons, Lluis; Cantele, Matthew; Coetzer, Kaera; DasGupta, Rajarshi; den Belder, Eefje; Ghosh, Sonali; Guisan, Antoine; Gundimeda, Haripriya; Hamann, Maike; Harrison, Paula A.; Hashimoto, Shizuka; Hauck, Jennifer; Klatt, Brian J.; Kok, Kasper; Krug, Rainer M.; Niamir, Aidin; O'Farrell, Patrick J.; Okayasu, Sana; Palomo, Ignacio; Pereira, Laura M.; Riordan, Philip; Santos-Martín, Fernando; Selomane, Odirilwe; Shin, Yunne-Jai; Valle, Mireia
    Scenario analyses have been used in multiple science-policy assessments to better understand complex plausible futures. Scenario archetype approaches are based on the fact that many future scenarios have similar underlying storylines, assumptions, and trends in drivers of change, which allows for grouping of scenarios into typologies, or archetypes, facilitating comparisons between a large range of studies. The use of scenario archetypes in environmental assessments foregrounds important policy questions and can be used to codesign interventions tackling future sustainability issues. Recently, scenario archetypes were used in four regional assessments and one ongoing global assessment within the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES). The aim of these assessments was to provide decision makers with policy-relevant knowledge about the state of biodiversity, ecosystems, and the contributions they provide to people. This paper reflects on the usefulness of the scenario archetype approach within science-policy processes, drawing on the experience from the IPBES assessments. Using a thematic analysis of (a) survey data collected from experts involved in the archetype analyses across IPBES assessments, (b) notes from IPBES workshops, and (c) regional assessment chapter texts, we synthesize the benefits, challenges, and frontiers of applying the scenario archetype approach in a science-policy process. Scenario archetypes were perceived to allow syntheses of large amounts of information for scientific, practice-, and policy-related purposes, streamline key messages from multiple scenario studies, and facilitate communication of them to end users. In terms of challenges, they were perceived as subjective in their interpretation, oversimplifying information, having a limited applicability across scales, and concealing contextual information and novel narratives. Finally, our results highlight what methodologies, applications, and frontiers in archetype-based research should be explored in the future. These advances can assist the design of future large-scale sustainability-related assessment processes, aiming to better support decisions and interventions for equitable and sustainable futures.
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    Human dependence on natural resources in rapidly urbanising South African regions
    (IOP Publishing, 2019-03-29) Balbi, Stefano; Selomane, Odirilwe; Sitas, Nadia; Blanchard, Ryan; Kotzee, Ilse; O’Farrell, Patrick; Villa, Ferdinando
    Enhancing the governance of social-ecological systems for more equitable and sustainable development is hindered by inadequate knowledge about how different social groups and communities rely on natural resources. We used openly accessible national survey data to develop a metric of overall dependence on natural resources. These data contain information about households' sources of water, energy, building materials and food. We used these data in combination with Bayesian learning to model observed patterns of dependence using demographic variables that included: gender of household head, household size, income, house ownership, formality status of settlement, population density, and in-migration rate to the area. We show that a small number of factors—in particular population density and informality of settlements—can explain a significant amount of the observed variation with regards to the use of natural resources. Subsequently, we test the validity of these predictions using alternative, open access data in the eThekwini and Cape Town metropolitan areas of South Africa. We discuss the advantages of using a selection of predictors which could be supplied through remotely sensed and open access data, in terms of opportunities and challenges to produce meaningful results in data-poor areas. With data availability being a common limiting factor in modelling and monitoring exercises, access to inexpensive, up-to-date and free to use data can significantly improve how we monitor progress towards sustainability targets. A small selection of openly accessible demographic variables can predict household's dependence on local natural resources.
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    Towards resilient African cities : shared challenges and opportunities towards the retention and maintenance of ecological infrastructure
    (Cambridge University Press, 2019) O’Farrell, Patrick; Anderson, Pippin; Culwick, Christina; Currie, Paul; Kavonic, Jessica; McClure, Alice; Ngenda, Gertrude; Sinnott, Eoin; Sitas, Nadia; Washbourne, Carla-Leanne; Audouin, Michelle; Blanchard, Ryan; Egoh, Benis; Goodness, Julie; Kotzee, Ilse; Sanya, Tom; Stafford, William; Wong, Gien
    There are significant challenges to retaining indigenous biodiversity and ecological infrastructure in African cities. These include a lack of formal protection and status for remnant ecologically functional patches rendering them open to ad hoc human settlement, which is in part linked to weak governance and management emerging from complex histories, and competing crisis-ridden demands. Persistent gaps in knowledge and practice mean that the social, economic, development and well-being benefits of ecological infrastructure are not understood or demonstrated. Addressing these challenges requires the adoption of multiple top-down government interventions and bottom-up community and neighbourhood actions. The development of detailed case studies that engage with knowledge generation and sharing at multiple scales through co-learning practices will also help create a much-needed deeper understanding of development options within this context.