Doctoral Degrees (Forest and Wood Science)

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Browsing Doctoral Degrees (Forest and Wood Science) by Author "Brink, Michal"

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    Development of a method to forecast future systems in the forest engineering value chain
    (Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 2001-12) Brink, Michal; Kellogg, L. D.; Uys, H. J. E.; Buys, A.; Stellenbosch University. Faculty of AgriSciences. Dept. of Forest and Wood Science.
    ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The objective of this study is to develop a new method which can be used to forecast the Forest Engineering value chain. The method is then applied in the South African context in order to validate the use thereof. Finally, the South African results are used to propose strategies, which the industry should pursue in the future. To forecast the future an understanding of the past is required. To this end, the historical development of Forest Engineering is discussed, both globally and in South Africa. The current status quo in Forest Engineering in South Africa was determined through a national survey of plantations larger than 200 ha. The results are reflected in Chapter 2. Because of the importance of globalisation and technology, Chapter 3 gives a literature review of relevance of technology in today's business world, including various forecasting techniques that are relevant to the study. These techniques are a combination of traditional forecasting methods, technology forecasting methods and strategic planning methods. Various approaches to financial analysis have also been discussed, in order to determine the soundest method of comparing various forest engineering systems with each other. This includes an overview of traditional machine cost calculations. The core of the study lies in the combination of these methodologies into a useful method, which is particularly suited to forecasting the Forest Engineering value chain. Such a method is developed in Chapter 4, based on the literature review of forecasting methodologies. The method is then validated in Chapter 5, through the application thereof in the South African forestry industry. Global trends are established with the use of a Delphi study. This technique uses a panel of experts who give their views on future developments on a multiple round basis. The study then evaluates 14 Forest Engineering systems for pine sawtimber, pine pulpwood and Eucalyptus pulpwood, based on various scenarios of the future. The scenario matrix is based on the future cost of labour vs. the future cost of machinery. Finally, a strategy is proposed on how the South African forestry industry should prepare itself for the future.