A hierarchical Bayesian model of wildfire in a Mediterranean biodiversity hotspot : implications of weather variability and global circulation

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dc.contributor.authorWilson, Adam M.en_ZA
dc.contributor.authorLatimer, Andrew M.en_ZA
dc.contributor.authorSilander, John A.en_ZA
dc.contributor.authorGelfand, Alan E.en_ZA
dc.contributor.authorDe Klerk, Helen Margareten_ZA
dc.date.accessioned2011-06-06T13:03:49Z
dc.date.available2011-06-06T13:03:49Z
dc.date.issued2010
dc.descriptionThe original publication is available at www.elsevier.com.
dc.description.abstractIn this study we combined an extensive database of observed wildfires with high-resolution meteorological data to build a novel spatially and temporally varying survival model to analyze fire regimes in the Mediterranean ecosystem in the Cape Floristic Region of South Africa (CFR) during the period 1980-2000. The model revealed an important influence of seasonally anomalous weather on fire probability, with increased probability of fire in seasons that are warmer and drier than average. In addition to these local-scale influences, the Antarctic Ocean Oscillation (AAO) was identified as an important large scale influence or teleconnection to global circulation patterns. Fire probability increased in seasons during positive AAO phases, when the subtropical jet moves northward and low level moisture transport decreases. These results confirm that fire occurrence in the CFR is strongly affected by climatic variability at both local and global scales, and thus likely to respond sensitively to future climate change. Comparison of the modeled fire probability between two periods (1951-1975 and 1976-2000) revealed a four year decrease in an average fire return time. If, as currently forecasted, climate change in the region continues to produce higher temperatures, more frequent heat waves, and/or lower rainfall, our model thus indicates that fire frequency is likely to increase substantially. The regional implications of shorter fire return times include shifting community structure and composition, favoring species that tolerate more frequent fires.en_ZA
dc.format.extentp. 106-112 : ill., maps
dc.identifier.citationWilsona, A.M., Latimerb, A.M., Silander, J.A., Gelfandc, A.E. & De Klerk, H. 2010. A Hierarchical Bayesian model of wildfire in a Mediterranean biodiversity hotspot: implications of weather variability and global circulation. Ecological Modelling 221 (2010), 106–112, doi: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2009.09.016en_ZA
dc.identifier.issn0304-3800
dc.identifier.otherdoi:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2009.09.016
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/14994
dc.language.isoen_USen_ZA
dc.publisherElsevieren_ZA
dc.rights.holderElsevieren_ZA
dc.subjectFire regime -- South Africa -- Cape Floristic Regionen_ZA
dc.subjectFynbos -- South Africa -- Cape Floristic Regionen_ZA
dc.subjectClimate change -- South Africa -- Cape Floristic Regionen_ZA
dc.subjectHierarchical Bayesian modelen_ZA
dc.titleA hierarchical Bayesian model of wildfire in a Mediterranean biodiversity hotspot : implications of weather variability and global circulationen_ZA
dc.typeArticleen_ZA
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