Extending freight flow modelling to Sub-Saharan Africa to inform infrastructure investments : trade data issues
Date
2012-11
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
AOSIS OpenJournals
Abstract
This paper highlights the first attempt by researchers at Stellenbosch University to model
freight flows between and for 17 countries in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). The model will
be informed by and linked to the South African surface Freight Demand Model (FDM)
given these dimensions. By analysing and collating available datasets and developing
a freight flow model, a better understanding of freight movements between countries
can be obtained and then used for long-term planning efforts. A simple methodology
is envisaged that will entail a high-level corridor classification that links a major district
in the country with a similar district in another country. Existing trade data will be used
to corroborate new base-year economic demand and supply volumetric data that will
be generated from social accounting matrices for each country. The trade data will also
provide initial flow dynamics between countries that will be refined according to the new
volumes. The model can then generate commodity-level corridor flows between SSA
countries, and between SSA countries and the rest of the world, as well as intra-country
rural and metropolitan flows, using a gravity-based modelling approach. This article
outlines efforts to harmonise trade data between the 17 countries identified, as well as
between these countries and the rest of the world as a first step towards developing a
freight demand model for sub-Saharan Africa.
Description
The original publication is available at http://www.jtscm.co.za/index.php/jtscm/article/view/60
Keywords
Freight and freightage -- Africa, Sub-Saharan
Citation
Havenga, J.H. et al. 2012. Extending freight flow modelling to Sub-Saharan Africa to inform infrastructure investments: trade data issues. Journal of Transport and Supply Chain Management, 6(1):192-206, doi: 10.4102/jtscm.v6i1.60.