Quantification of transport demand of hybrid lighter than air in Rwanda through stated preference methods

Rwunguko, Jean d'Amour (2015-03)

Thesis (MSc)-- Stellenbosch University, 2015.

Thesis

ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Today, development of innovative modes of transport is taking place in order to accelerate the economic growth of transport users as well as reducing the environmental pollution, through an improved transport system. These new transport modes are associated with advances in modern technologies that are able to provide solutions to different problems in the transport industry of developing countries. This research was motivated by the cost reduction and environmental benefits, accruing from the use of new technology of Hybrid Lighter Than Air (HLTA) transport mode. The intention then, was to evaluate the modes choice preference of transport users in the case where the HLTA is introduced in Rwanda. The new mode of HLTA is believed to make a contribution in solving transport challenges stemming from the fact that Rwanda is a landlocked country. The landlockedness is associated with lack of access to seaports, remoteness and isolation from major markets. This continues to impede the development of the country and the problem is exacerbated by the fact that, road transport mode dominates the transport operations in Rwanda. From an economic point of view, road transport causes high transport economic costs for both passengers and freight, and increases, to a large extent, environmental pollution. In order to achieve the transport users’ modes choice preferences, this study has developed and used an efficient survey design process of Stated Preference. Drawing from current literature, Stated Preference is an accurate tool for data collection of studies that relate to choice preferences. This technique made it possible to design questionnaires by hypothetically creating choice games using three attributes; i.e. In Vehicle Travel Time, Waiting Time and Travel Cost for available alternative modes of transport. Thereafter, the collection of data took place by interviewing the transport users of three routes that accommodate heavy traffic in the study area, Rwanda. The SPSS version 21 computer programme was used to analyse mode choice preference data and then for a matter of checking the results, STATA S/E 11.1 was used. Among the results, these computer programmes reported coefficients of attributes and these were applied in the Binomial logistic regression mathematical structure in the model building process. The model refinement and validation processes that followed, have suggested a removal of Waiting Time from the explanatory variables. This was due to poor performance that Waiting Time has demonstrated in terms of prediction and significance. Then, magnitudes of utilities of models were determined based on the two remaining variables. The choice probability value of each alternative on different routes was calculated; and thus transport demand of each mode was quantified. According to the results, transport users in Rwanda would prefer and use HLTA in case it starts operating. For both cargo and passenger transport, HLTA was chosen above other modes set into choice process, with probabilities of 79.7%, 86.1%, and 58% for HLTA-Passenger on long, medium and short routes respectively and 71%, 56% and 77% for HLTA-Cargo on long, medium and short route respectively. The passenger transport volume share of HLTA-Passenger projected in the year 2014 was found to be 6269256 passengers against a total annual passenger traffic demand of 7941752 passengers on the three routes considered. The annual freight volume of HLTA-Cargo was 10947921 tonnes against a total of 16935637 tonnes on all the routes considered. These high demand volumes of HLTA were due to high choice probabilities which in turn, were due to small values of attributes that HLTA has got compared to those of other modes. It is, therefore, proposed that more research should be conducted to study the viability of HLTA use in Rwanda. While doing so, such studies should consider issues of economic viability, environmental benefit research and other studies engaging demand data, since these data items would be published as the main results of this current work.

AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die ontwikkeling van innoverende vervoermiddels vind deesdae plaas ten einde die ekonomiese groei van die gebruikers van vervoer te versnel, asook om maniere te soek om omgewingsbesoedeling te bekamp deur die verbetering van vervoerstelsels. Hierdie nuwe vervoermiddels word geassosieer met vooruitgang in moderne tegnologie, wat ten doel het om oplossings te voorsien vir verskeie probleme in die vervoerindustrie van ontwikkelende lande. Hierdie navorsing is gemotiveer deur kostevermindering en omgewingsvoordele, wat uit die gebruik van die nuwe tegnologie van Hibriede Ligter as Lug vervoermiddels (lugskip) voortspruit. Die bedoeling was dan om die keuse van vervoermiddelvoorkeure deur gebruikers, te evalueer ingeval die bogenoemde lugskip in Rwanda as vervoermiddel implementeer sou word. Daar word beweer dat hierdie nuwe lugskip vervoermiddel ‘n aandeel sal hê om die vervoeruitdagingsprobleme van Rwanda, wat landingeslote is, te help oplos. Hierdie landingeslotenheid word geassosieer met ‘n gebrek aan toegang tot seehawens, afstand en afsondering van groot markte. Voorts belemmer dit die ontwikkeling van die land en die probleem word vererger deur die feit dat padvervoer die vervoer bedrywighede in die land oorheers. Padvervoer veroorsaak hoë vervoer onkoste in die land se ekonomie, vir beide passasiers- en vragvervoer, en daar is ‘n aansienlike toename in omgewingsbesoedeling. Ten einde die vervoergebruikers se vervoermiddelkeuse voorkeure te bereik, het hierdie studie 'n doeltreffende opname-ontwerp proses van Verklaarde Voorkeur ontwikkel en gebruik. Uit kennis van huidige literatuur, word aanvaar dat Verklaarde Voorkeur 'n akkurate instrument is vir data-versameling vir studies wat verband hou met die keuse van voorkeure. Hierdie tegniek het dit moontlik gemaak om vraelyste te ontwerp deur die hipotetiese skepping van keuse speletjies wat drie eienskappe gebruik, naamlik In-Voertuig Reistyd, Wagtyd en Reiskoste vir beskikbare alternatiewe vervoermiddels. Daarna het dataversameling plaasgevind deurdat onderhoude met vervoergebruikers van drie swaarverkeerroetes in Rwanda gevoer is. Die SPSS weergawe 21 rekenaarprogram is gebruik om die vervoermiddel-keuse voorkeurdata te analiseer, en daarna, ten einde die uitslae te ondersoek, is die STATA S/E 11.1 program gebruik. As deel van die uitslae het hierdie rekenaarprogramme berig oor eienskappe van koëffisiënte. Hierdie uitslae is toegepas in die Binomiale logistieke regressie wiskundige struktuur in ‘n modelbou-proses. Die model validasieproses wat gevolg het, het voorgestel dat wagtyd weggelaat word as een van die verklarende veranderlikes. Dit was as gevolg van swak prestasie wat wagtyd getoon het in terme van voorspelling en betekenis. Daarna is groottes van modelle se nuttigheid bepaal op grond van die twee oorblywende veranderlikes. Laastens is die keuse waarskynlikheidswaardes van elke alternatief op verskillende roetes bereken, en sodoende is die vervoeraanvraag van elke vervoermiddel gekwantifiseer. Volgens die uitslae sou vervoergebruikers in Rwanda die lugskip as vervoermiddel verkies en gebruik, indien dit implementer sou word. Vir beide vrag- en passasiersvervoer, is die lugskip bo ander vorme gekies wat in die keuse proses beskikbaar was, met waarskynlikhede van 79.7%, 86.1%, en 58 vir lugskip-passasier op 'n lang, medium en kort roete onderskeidelik, en waarskynlikhede van 71%, 56% en 77% vir lugskip-vrag op die lang, medium en kort roetes onderskeidelik. Die projeksie van die passasier vervoer volume gedeelte van lugskip-passasier vir die jaar 2014 het bevind dat 6269256 passasiers uit 'n totale passasiersverkeer aanvraag van 7941752, geprojekteer vir 2014, op die drie oorweegde roetes voorspel was. Die vrag volume van lugskip-vrag was 10947921 ton, teenoor 'n totaal van 16935637 ton op al die oorweegde roetes. Hierdie hoë aanvraag volumes van lugskip vervoer was as gevolg van hoë keuse waarskynlikhede wat op hul beurt, as gevolg van die klein waardes van eienskappe van die lugskip in vergelyking met dié van ander vervoermiddels veroorsaak is. Die voorstel is dus dat meer navorsing gedoen moet word om die lewensvatbaarheid van die gebruik van lugskip vervoer in Rwanda te bestudeer. Terselfdertyd moet sodanige studies kwessies oorweeg wat die ekonomiese lewensvatbaar van die vervoermiddel ondersoek, voordele vir die omgewing inhou en ander studies waar aanvraagdata oorweeg word, aangesien sulke data alreeds gepubliseer sal wees as die belangrikste resultate van hierdie huidige studie.

Please refer to this item in SUNScholar by using the following persistent URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/96931
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