Quantifying system reliability in rail transportation in an aging fleet environment

Conradie, Pieter Daniel Francois (2015-03)

Thesis (MEng)--Stellenbosch University, 2015.

Thesis

ENGLISH ABSTRACT: In recent years, the management of physical assets has become increasingly important, even more so, in asset intensive organisations. This research work presents an overall approach to quantify reliability of rolling stock assets in the rail environment. The current maintenance management system in the case studied is over-reliant on cancellations and delays as reliability measure. The objectives of this study were, therefore, to develop a scientific approach to quantify the reliability of the rolling stock fleet and to develop a maintenance planning model based on system reliability. The research methodology followed made use of failure statistics, failure distributions and the interdependence of different systems to determine the impact of component failures on the overall system reliability. This could then be used to determine the reliability of individual train sets in order to better understand their performance. The reliability measure could be used for predicting component and train set failures as well as to better understand the contribution of maintenance towards reliability, hence the term Reliability Based Maintenance. The model, validated with real data, illustrates how the reliability measure can be used to determine maintenance intervals of different train sets. Based on the results, recommendations are made in relation to future planning of the maintenance strategy.

AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die bestuur van fisiese bates het in die afgelope tyd meer belangrik geword, veral in organisasies wat afhanklik is van hulle fisiese bates. Hierdie navorsing stel ‘n metode voor wat die betroubaarheid van rollende materiaal bates in die spoor bedryf kwantifiseer deur gebruik te maak van falingstatistiek. In die huidige instandhouding bestuurstelsel van die gevallestudie word daar te veel gesteun op kansellasies en vertragings van treine as ‘n betroubaarheids meting. Daarom was die doelwitte van die navorsing om ‘n wetenskaplike benadering te ontwikkel om betroubaarheid van rollende materiaal the kwantifiseer, en om ‘n instandhouding beplannings model voor te stel, gebaseer op sisteem betroubaarheid. Die navorsingsmetodologie is gebaseer op falingstatistieke, falingverspreidings, en die interafhanklikheid van stelsels word gebruik om die invloed van komponent falings op die betroubaarheid van die totale stelsel te bepaal. Hierdie benadering word dan gebruik om die betroubaarheid van individuele treinstelle en die werksverrigting van individuele trainstelle te bepaal. Hierdie instandhouding meting kan gebruik word om falings van komponente en treinstelle te voorspel, asook om die bydrae van instandhouding tot betroubaarheid beter te verstaan, daarom genoem Betroubaarheids Gebaseerde Instandhouding. Dit is ook geïllustreer hoe die betroubaarheid meting gebruik kan word om instandhouding intervalle te bepaal. Die betroubaarheid model is met werklike data gevalideer en aanbevelings word gemaak hoe om betroubaarheid te gebruik om die toekomstige beplanning van instandhouding te doen.

Please refer to this item in SUNScholar by using the following persistent URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/96836
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