Exploring the population and economic growth dynamics in former homeland settlements between 1996 and 2011.

Ngidi, Mawande S. Lindelo (2014-12)

Thesis (MPhil)--Stellenbosch University, 2014.

Thesis

ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Former homelands were established in order to create separate self-governed states for the black population of South Africa, the epitome of the Apartheid government policy of separate development and social engineering. After 1994 these areas were integrated with the rest of the administrative regions of South Africa. These largely rural areas have developed a variety of settlement types with varying levels of economic agglomeration and population concentration that are still faced with the legacy of unsustainable settlements. These areas mostly characterised with dense rural settlements and traditional land tenure have growing towns where economic activity still does not match the growth in population and are perceived to have struggling economies, high grant dependence and low urbanisation rates. This paper examines the population and economic growth, level of urbanisation and spatial agglomeration within former homelands using the three census years (1996, 2001 and 2011) as well as the proportion of social grant recipients across settlements in order to get a better understanding of the spatial development patterns in these areas. A weighted mean growth was used to determine the relative strength of spatial agglomeration and diffusion patterns and an age cohort analysis was used to indicate population movement. A simple linear regression was used to assess the relationship between population settlement patterns and economic growth on the prevalence of social grant recipients across settlements. The results indicate firstly a growth and increased concentration of population within settlements indicating that natural increase is outpacing the outmigration. Secondly; increased urbanisation and spatial agglomeration within former homeland urban centres is accompanied by a marginal economic growth which conforms to theoretical predictions. However, the economic growth in former homelands is happening at a slower pace than in the rest of South Africa. Thirdly, although having a higher proportion of grant recipients compared to the rest of South Africa, there is a negative correlation between the proportions of social grant recipients and spatial agglomeration. This indicates that the proportion of grant recipients are declining as economic activity and population agglomerates within former homeland urban centres.

AFRIKAANS OPSOMMING: Die voormalige tuislande is daar gestel om aparte en selfregerende state te vorm vir die swart bevolking van Suid Afrika. Hierdie was ‘n hoogte punt van die Apartheids regering se poging om aparte ontwikkeling vir verskillende rasse groepe af te dwing. Na 1994 is die state geintegreer met die res van die administratiewe areas (munisipaliteite) van Suid Afrika. Die grootliks landelike gebiede bestaan uit ‘n verskeindenheid van tipes nedersettings met verskillende vlakke van konsentrasie (agglomerasie) aangaande populasie en ekonomiese aktiwiteite. Daar is ook die algemene indruk dat die areas sukkelende ekonomieë het, grootliks afhanklik is van welsynstoelae, en met geen beduidende mate van verstedeliking nie. Die studie kyk na die ekonomiese en populasie groei, die vlak van verstedeliking en ruimtelike konsentrasie binne die voormalige tuislande gebaseer op die sensus data afkomstig van drie sensus jare (1996, 2001 en 2011), asook die proporsie persone afhanklik van welsynstoelae in die verskillende tipes nedersettings. Dit word gedoen om sodoende ‘n beter verstaan te kry van die ruimtelike ontwikkelings patrone in die areas en of dit positief bydrae tot ekonomiese groei en ontwikkeling van die voormalige tusilande. Die geweegte gemiddelde groei is bereken om die relatiewe vlak van ruimtelike konsentrasie (of verspreiding) te bepaal. Ouderdoms groeperinge en die mate van verandering binne ‘n sekere groepering is gebruik om die beweging van mense tussen plekke te bepaal. Daarna is ‘n gewone liniere regressie analise gebruik om die verwantskap tussen populasie, nedersettings patrone, en ekonomiese groei te toets op die teenwoordigheid van mense wat afhanklik is van welsynstoelae. Die resultate wys eerstens groei en toenemende konsentrasie van populasie binne nedersettings. Die dui daarop dat natuurlike populasie aanwas die tempo van uitmigrasie oorskrei. Tweedens word toenemende verstedeliking en ruimtelike konsentrasie binne stedelike gebiede van die tuislande geassosieer met ekonomiese groei. Laasgenoemde is in lyn met die teorie rondom konsentrasie (agglomerasie). Ekonomise groei in voormalige tuislande gebeur egter teen ‘n stadiger pas as in die res van SA. Laastens, alhoewel daar proporsioneel meer mense in die voormalige tuislande is wat welsysntoelae ontvang in verhouding tot die res van SA, is daar wel ‘n negatiewe korrelasie tussen die proporsie van welsynstoelaag afhanklikes en die mate van ruimtelike konsentrasie. Dit dui daarop dat in stedelike sentra in die voormalige tuislande die hoeveelheid welsynstoelaag afhanklikes afneem in verhouding tot die toename in die konsentrasie van populasie en ekonomiese aktiwiteite.

Please refer to this item in SUNScholar by using the following persistent URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/95733
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