Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science
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Recent Submissions
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Catastrophe modelling : deriving the 1-in-200 year mortality shock for a South African insurer’s capital requirements under solvency assessment management
(Actuarial Society of South Africa, 2015)This paper investigates catastrophe risk for South African life insurers by considering the additional deaths that could arise from a 1-in-200 year mortality shock. Existing South African academic research on catastrophic ...
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The sources of South African equity fund performance
(Portfolio management -- South Africa, 2015-11)ENGLISH SUMMARY : This paper aims to quantify some of the sources of South African equity fund performance. In particular, it aims to provide insights into the relative importance of sector allocation and stock selection ...
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The application and testing of smart beta strategies in the South African market
(Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 2018-03)ENGLISH SUMMARY: Smart Beta portfolios have recently prompted great interest both from academic researchers and market practitioners. Investors are attracted by the performances produced by these portfolios compared to the ...
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Identifying secondary series for stepwise common singular spectrum analysis
(Operations Research Society of South Africa, 2013)Common singular spectrum analysis is a technique which can be used to forecast a primary time series by using the information from a secondary series. Not all secondary series, however, provide useful information. A first ...
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Extreme value-based novelty detection
(Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 2017-12)ENGLISH SUMMARY : This dissertation investigates extreme value-based novelty detection. An in-depth review of the theoretical proofs and an analytical investigation of current novelty detection methods are given. It is ...
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Aspects of multi-class nearest hypersphere classification
(Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 2017-12)ENGLISH SUMMARY : Using hyperspheres in the analysis of multivariate data is not a common practice in Statistics. However, hyperspheres have some interesting properties which are useful for data analysis in the following ...
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Statistical classification in high-dimensional scenarios with a focus on microarray data sets
(2017-12)ENGLISH SUMMARY : High-dimensional data analysis characterises many contemporary problems in statistics and arise in many application areas. This thesis focuses on very high-dimensional problems in which the input predictor ...
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The impact of behavioural economics and finance on retirement provision
(Actuarial Society of South Africa, 2016)The significant shift from defined benefit to defined contribution retirement funds in South Africa has led to many fund members bearing responsibility for a range of risks. Many of these risks, such as those related to ...
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Changes in mortality of people living with HIV in South Africa and their potential implications for life assurers
(Actuarial Society of South Africa, 2016)This research investigates the impact of improved (and improving) mortality experience in South Africa as a result of the increased (and increasing) access to antiretroviral treatment on South African life assurers, the ...
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A statistical analysis of student performance for the 2000-2013 period at the Copperbelt University in Zambia
(Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 2017-12)ENGLISH SUMMARY : Education in general, and tertiary education in particular are the engines for sustained development of a nation. In this line, the Copperbelt University (CBU) plays a vital role in delivering the ...
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Flexible graphical assessment of experimental designs in R : the vdg package
(Foundation for Open Access Statistics, 2016-10)The R package vdg provides a flexible interface for producing various graphical summaries of the prediction variance associated with specific linear model specifications and experimental designs. These methods include ...
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Predicting tomato crop yield from weather data using statistical learning techniques
(Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 2017-03)ENGLISH SUMMARY : Predicting crop harvest quantities accurately is important in managing a farming enterprise effectively, facilitating decisions regarding crop management, allocation of resources, anticipated delivery ...
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Credit and debit value adjustment estimations in the data sparse South African market
(Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 2017-03)ENGLISH SUMMARY : During 2014, the International Accounting Standards Board (IASB) implemented a new standard for measuring the fair value of assets through the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) 13 guidance. ...
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L-classifier chains classification and variable selection for multi-label datasets
(Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 2016-12)ENGLISH SUMMARY : Multi-label classification extends binary and multi-class classification to scenarios where every data case is assigned several labels simultaneously. Applications include labelling images with tags, ...
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Statistical classification procedures for analyisng functional data
(Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 2016-12)ENGLISH SUMMARY : Functional data are obtained through the measurement of one or more variables at a set of discrete evaluation points over a continuum such as time, wavelength or values of a spatial variable. Functional ...
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An application of geometric data analysis techniques to South African crime data
(Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 2016-12)ENGLISH SUMMARY : Due to the high levels of violent crime in South Africa, improved methods of analysis are required in order to better scrutinize these statistics. This study diverges from traditional multivariate data ...
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Statistical inference of the multiple regression analysis of complex survey data
(Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 2016-12)ENGLISH SUMMARY : The quality of the inferences and results put forward from any statistical analysis is directly dependent on the correct method used at the analysis stage. Most survey data analyzed in practice riginate ...
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Advances in random forests with application to classification
(Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 2016-12)ENGLISH SUMMARY : Since their introduction, random forests have successfully been employed in a vast array of application areas. Fairly recently, a number of algorithms that adhere to Leo Breiman’s definition of a random ...
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The saddle-point method and its application to the hill estimator
(Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 2016-12)ENGLISH SUMMARY : The saddle-point approximation is a highly accurate approximation of the distribution of a random variable. It was originally derived as an approximation in situations where a parameter takes on large ...
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Historic bells in Moravian Missions in South Africa's Western Cape
(Historical Association of South Africa, 2014-11)The Moravian Church was the first denomination to begin with missionary work among the indigenous people in South Africa and today the church still has a very strong presence in the country. After opening their first mission ...
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Probability of default calibration for low default portfolios: revisiting the Bayesian approach
(Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 2016-03)ENGLISH ABSTRACT : The Probability of Default is one of the fundamental parameters used in the quantification of credit risk. When estimating the Probability of Default for portfolios with a low default nature the ...
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Precision, consistency and bias in emerging equity markets
(International Foundation for Research & Development, 2014-05)The use of multiples is a popular approach employed by analysts to perform valuations. These multiples are based on optimal value drivers, the valuation performance of which should be underpinned by empirical findings from ...
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Multivariate statistical process evaluation and monitoring for complex chemical processes
(Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 2015-12)ENGLISH ABSTRACT: In this study, the development of an innovative fully integrated process monitoring methodology is presented for a complex chemical facility, originating at the coal feed from different mines up to the ...
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Comparison of methods to calculate measures of inequality based on interval data
(Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 2015-12)ENGLISH ABSTRACT: In recent decades, economists and sociologists have taken an increasing interest in the study of income attainment and income inequality. Many of these studies have used census data, but social surveys ...
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Compounding a class of Rayleigh distributions : an objective Bayesian approach
(Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 2015-12)ENGLISH ABSTRACT: In this work, Bayesian estimation in the context of parametric survival analysis is con- sidered. A class of models derived by compounding and generalising the Rayleigh dis- tribution is regarded. These ...
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In-season retail sales forecasting using survival models
(Operations Research Society of South Africa, 2014)A large South African retailer (hereafter referred to as the Retailer) faces the problem of selling out inventory within a specified finite time horizon by dynamically adjusting product prices, and simultaneously maximising ...
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An individual-based model of tsetse fly populations dynamics : modelling an extensive mark-release-recapture experiment
(Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 2015-04)ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Tsetse flies (Glossina spp), native to mid-continental Africa, are the vectors of trypanosomes that causes human (sleeping sickness) and animal (nagana) trypanosomiasis. Vector control plays a major ...
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Quantification of estimation instability and its application to threshold selection in extremes
(South African Statistical Association, 2015-03)
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The identification and application of common principal components
(Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 2014-12)ENGLISH ABSTRACT: When estimating the covariance matrices of two or more populations, the covariance matrices are often assumed to be either equal or completely unrelated. The common principal components (CPC) model ...
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Modelling of multi-state panel data : the importance of the model assumptions
(Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 2014-12)ENGLISH ABSTRACT: A multi-state model is a way of describing a process in which a subject moves through a series of states in continuous time. The series of states might be the measurement of a disease for example in ...
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