Study into the viability of e-mobility and requirements for the strategic roll out of electric vehicles in South Africa

Bakker, Rick (2012-12)

Thesis (MScEng)--Stellenbosch University, 2012.

Thesis

ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The electrification of transportation through the introduction of electric vehicles in the South African market can potentially reduce oil dependency and lead to the possible reduction of carbon footprints through lower annual CO2 emission rates. The key question is if the introduction of electric mobility will be financially viable in South Africa and, if so, what business model should be followed. To answer this question cost analysis and total cost of ownership calculations have been modelled based on 8 scenarios. All scenarios consisted of different variables in order to identify the key variables affecting the financial viability of e-­‐mobility. Global market forecasts and governmental incentives and the effect of it on the total cost of ownership have been researched and compared to proposed South African incentives by the DTI. Battery recharging techniques and different battery and vehicle types have been evaluated. Furthermore, the impact on the national grid has been studied, as well as the potential e-­‐mobility value chain and the associated direct job creation. The findings in this thesis illustrate that the introduction of e-­‐mobility can be viable if it is based on a model 2 based business model. Early adopters will preferably use level 2 home charging in the introductory stage. The commencement of demonstration projects is to shed more light on uncertainties and to overcome potential limitations by gathering the desirable data and valuable insights regarding driving and charging preferences and habits. Cost analysis has shown that the biggest aspects affecting the total cost of ownership are initial battery costs, battery price reduction, and vehicle acquisition costs, while operating cost are predominantly relying on the difference between fuel and energy prices. The analysis has shown that governmental incentives don’t significantly affect e-­mobility’s viability.

AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die  elektrifisering  van  vervoer  deur  die  gebruik  van  elektries  aangedrewe   motorvoertuie  het  die  potensiaal  om  Suid  Afrika  se  afhanklikheid  van  olie  asook  die  CO2   impak  wesenlik  te  verminder.  Die  vraag  is  egter  of  die  implementering  van  elektriese   vervoer  finansieël  aantreklik  is  vir  Suid  Afrika,  en  indien  wel  watter  spesifieke   besigheidsmodel  toepaslik  sou  wees.   Om  die  vraag  te  beantwoord  is  ‘n  koste  analise  gedoen  wat  kyk  na  die  verskillende   kostes  en  tenologië.  ‘n  Kostemodel  om  die  totale  koste  van  eienaarskap  te  bepaal  is   gedoen,  baseer  op  8  verskillende  senarios.  Deur  die  verskillende  senarios  is  hoof   veranderlikes  bepaal  wat  ‘n  invloed  het  op  die  bekostigbaarheid  van  elektrifisering.   Globale  mark  vooruitskattings  asook  regeringsinisiatiewe  is  ondersoek,  en  vergelyk  met   Suid  Afrikaanse  voorstelle  en  moontlike  aansporings  rondom  die  onderwerp  soos   uiteengesit  in  DTI  beplanningsdokumente.  Verskillende  battery  tipes,  verskillende   elektriese  motors  asook  herlaaitegnologië  is  evalueer.  Die  impak  van  die  gebruik  van   elektries  aangedrewe  voertuie  op  die  SA  elektrisiteitsnetwerk  is  ondersoek,  en  die   moontlikhede  van  waardetoevoeging  oor  die  hele  waardeketting  en  werkskepping  is  op   ‘n  hoë  vlak  bespreek.   Die  bevindinge  van  hierdie  tesis  dui  daarop  dat  e-­‐vervoer  (“e-­‐mobility”)  wel   lewensvatbaar  kan  wees  mits  ‘n  spesifieke  besigheidsmodel  (model  2  in  die  dokument)   gevolg  word.  Aanvanklik  sal  gebruikers  verkies  om  vlak  2  tuis  herlaaitegnolgie  te   gebruik.  Om  die  onsekerhede  van  moontlike  gebruikers  uit  die  weg  te  ruim,  asook  om   steekproefdata  te  bekom  vir  verdere  ontleding  oor  gebruikersgedrag,  is  dit  noodsaaklik   om  elektrifiseringsprojekte  binne  ‘n  klein  geografies  afgebakende  gebied  te   implementer.     Die  kosteanaliese  het  getoon  dat  die  aanvanklike  batterykoste,  die  toekomstige   prysafname  in  hierdie  prys,  asook  die  voertuigprys  self  die  grootste  bydraes  maak  tot   die  totale  koste  van  eienaarskap.  Loopkosteverskille  word  hoofsaaklik  bepaal  deur  die   prysverskille  tussen  elektrisiteit  en  olie/brandstof.  Laastens  toon  die  ondersoek  dat   finansiële  aansporings  van  regeringskant  af  nie  ‘

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