Uncertainty and private sector response to economic development policy in post-genocide Rwanda

Nsanzabaganwa, Monique (2012-12)

Thesis (PhD)--Stellenbosch University, 2012.

Thesis

ENGLISH ABSTRACT: This research explored factors underlying successful implementation of development policy. It applied new institutional economic analysis to policy-making processes viewed from the theory, methodology and practice perspectives. Two important results came out of the analysis. Firstly, policy performance depends on private actors’ optimization processes that may or may not end up in conflict with the policy prescriptions. This constitutes a major source of uncertainty. Secondly, getting the policy content right is a necessary but not sufficient condition for success. How policy actions are delivered (implemented by private agents) matters a lot. The policy maker is therefore invited to devise an appropriate mechanism design to that effect. The study proposes the Connectedness model as a normative methodology to minimize uncertainty and increase the likelihood of policy success. The model was inspired by a retroductive inference from some Rwandan living experiments in policy management, which have assisted the country to quickly recover from the 1994 Genocide of the Tutsi and achieve high economic performance in a record time. The Connectedness model defines four actors of a policy process – the politician, the policy expert/bureaucrat, the change manager/consciousness nurturer and the private actor– and describes the nature of interactions between and among them susceptible to guarantee success. The more role players are coordinated, share the same vision and implement consensus building mechanisms, the higher the likelihood for the policy to deliver according to plans. The study proposes three recommendations. Firstly, further research is needed to operationalize leadership, private sector spirit and connectedness institutions as endogenous variables in the new growth theory models. Secondly, new methodologies are to be devised to capture behaviour of individuals and the dynamic nature of policy making processes in macroeconomic modeling. Thirdly, economists and policy makers ought to value more the contribution of social science disciplines such as sociology and psychology in gathering evidence and tools to handle change effectively.

AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Hierdie navorsing het faktore ondersoek wat onderliggend is aan die suksesvolle implementering van ontwikkelingsbeleid. Dit het nuwe institusionele ekonomiese analise op beleidmakingsprosesse toegepas, gesien vanuit die perspektiewe van teorie, metodologie en die praktyk. Daar het twee belangrike gevolge vanuit hierdie analise voortgevloei. Eerstens, beleidsprestasie hang af van die private rolspelers se optimaliseringsprosesse wat aan die einde van die dag in stryd met beleidsvoorskrifte mag wees – of dalk nie. Dit is dus ‘n groot bron van onsekerheid. Tweedens is die regkry van die beleidsinhoud ‘n noodsaaklike maar nie genoegsame voorwaarde vir sukses nie. Hoe beleidsaksies gelewer word (geïmplementeer word deur privaatagente) is baie belangrik. Die beleidmaker word dus uitgenooi om ‘n toepaslike meganisme-ontwerp te dien effekte te skep. Die navorsingstudie stel die verbondenheidsmodel voor as ‘n normatiewe metodologie om onsekerheid te minimaliseer en die waarskynlikheid van beleidsukses te verhoog. Die model is geïnspireer deur ‘n retroduktiewe afleiding wat gemaak is na aanleiding van ‘n paar Rwandese lewende eksperimente in beleidsbestuur wat die land gehelp het om vinnig te herstel na die menseslagting van die Tutsi’s gedurende 1994 en om hoë ekonomiese prestasie in ‘n rekordtyd te bereik. Die verbondenheidsmodel omskryf vier rolspelers van ‘n beleidsproses – die politikus, die beleidskundige/burokraat, die veranderingbestuurder/bewussynsversorger en die private rolspeler – en beskryf die aard van die interaksies tussen hulle wat na alle waarskynlikheid sukses kan waarborg. Hoe meer die rolspelers gekoördineer word, dieselfde visie deel en konsensusbouende meganismes implementeer, hoe hoër is die waarskynlikheid dat die beleid volgens plan sal lewer. Die navorsingstudie stel drie aanbevelings voor. Eerstens is verdere navorsing nodig om leierskap, die gees van die privaatsektor sowel as die verbondenheidsinstellings te operasionaliseer as endogene veranderlikes in die nuwe groeiteoriemodelle. Tweedens behoort daar nuwe metodologieë geskep te word om die gedrag van individue sowel as die dinamiese aard van beleidmakingsprosesse in makro-ekonomiese modellering vas te vang. Derdens behoort ekonome en beleidmakers die bydraes van dissiplines in die Sosiale Wetenskappe byvoorbeeld Sosiologie en Sielkunde hoër aan te slaan wanneer bewyse en instrumente bymekaar gemaak word om verandering op ‘n effektiewe manier te hanteer.

Please refer to this item in SUNScholar by using the following persistent URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/71932
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