The effect of liquidity on stock returns on the JSE

Reisinger, Astrid Kim (2012-12)

Thesis (MComm)--Stellenbosch University, 2012.

Thesis

ENGLISH ABSTRACT: This thesis examines the effect of liquidity on excess stock returns on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) over the period 2003 to 2011. It builds on the findings of previous studies that found size, value and momentum effects to be significant in explaining market anomalies by adding a further explanatory factor, namely liquidity. A standard CAPM, as well as a momentum-augmented Fama-French (1993: 3) model are employed to perform regression analyses to examine the effect of the four variables on excess stock returns. Results suggested that the log of the stock‘s market value best captured the size effect, the earnings yield best captured the value effect and the previous three month‘s returns best captured the momentum effect. Five liquidity proxies are used: the bid-ask spread first proposed by Amihud (1986: 223), turnover, the price impact measure of Amihud (2002: 31) and two zero return measures proposed by Lesmond et al. (1999: 1113). Despite prior studies having found liquidity to be an influential factor, this thesis found the opposite to be true. This finding remains robust, irrespective of the type of liquidity measure used. While size, value and momentum are found to be significant to a certain extent in explaining excess stock returns over the period, liquidity is not found to be significant. This is a surprising result, given that the JSE is seen as an emerging market, which is generally regarded as illiquid. This fact is exacerbated by the fact that the JSE is a highly concentrated and therefore skewed market that is dominated by only a handful of shares. Hence liquidity is expected to be of utmost importance. The result that liquidity is however not a priced factor on this market is therefore an important finding that requires further analysis to determine why this is the case. In addition, significant non-zero intercepts remained, indicating continued missing risk factors.

AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: In hierdie tesis word die effek van likiditeit op oormaat aandeel-opbrengste op die Johannesburg Effektebeurs (JEB) ondersoek gedurende die periode 2003 tot 2011. Dit bou voort op die bevindinge van vorige studies wat toon dat grootte, waarde en momentum beduidend is in die verklaring van mark onreëlmatighede deur 'n addisionele verklarende faktor, likiditeit, toe te voeg. 'n Standaard kapitaalbateprysingsmodel (KBPM) sowel as 'n momentum-aangepaste Fama-French (1993: 3) model word gebruik om deur middel van regressie analise die effek van die vier veranderlikes op oormaat aandeel-opbrengste te ondersoek. Die resultate toon dat die grootte effek die beste verteenwoordig word deur die logaritme van die aandeel se mark kapitalisasie, die verdienste-opbrengs verteenwoordig die waarde effek en die vorige drie-maande opbrengskoerse verteenwoordig die momentum effek die beste. Vyf likiditeitsveranderlikes is gebruik: bod-en-aanbod spreiding voorgestel deur Amihud (1986: 223), omset, die prys-impak maatstaf van Amihud (2002: 31) en twee nul-opbrengskoers maatstawwe voorgestel deur Lesmond et al. (1999: 1113). Afgesien van die feit dat vorige studies die effek van likiditeit beduidend vind, word die teenoorgestelde in hierdie tesis gevind. Hierdie bevinding bly robuus, ongeag van die likiditeitsveranderlike wat gebruik word. Terwyl bevind is dat grootte, waarde en momentum beduidend is tot 'n sekere mate in die verklaring van oormaat aandeel-opbrengste tydens die periode, is geen aanduiding dat likiditeit 'n addisionele beduidende verklarende faktor is gevind nie. Hierdie bevinding is onverwags, aangesien die JEB beskou word as 'n ontluikende mark, wat normaalweg illikied is. Hierdie feit word vererger deur dat die JEB hoogs gekonsentreerd is en dus 'n skewe mark is wat oorheers word deur slegs 'n hand vol aandele. Dus word verwag dat likiditeit 'n baie belangrike faktor behoort te wees. Die bevinding dat likiditeit nie 'n prysingsfaktor op hierdie mark is nie, is dus 'n belangrike bevinding en vereis verdere analise om vas te stel waarom dit die geval is. Addisioneel word beduidende nie-nul afsnitte verkry, wat aandui dat daar steeds risiko faktore is wat nog nie geïdentifiseer is nie.

Please refer to this item in SUNScholar by using the following persistent URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/71836
This item appears in the following collections: