Development of a method to forecast future systems in the forest engineering value chain

Brink, Michal (2001-12)

Dissertation (PhD (For))--University of Stellenbosch, 2001.

Thesis

ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The objective of this study is to develop a new method which can be used to forecast the Forest Engineering value chain. The method is then applied in the South African context in order to validate the use thereof. Finally, the South African results are used to propose strategies, which the industry should pursue in the future. To forecast the future an understanding of the past is required. To this end, the historical development of Forest Engineering is discussed, both globally and in South Africa. The current status quo in Forest Engineering in South Africa was determined through a national survey of plantations larger than 200 ha. The results are reflected in Chapter 2. Because of the importance of globalisation and technology, Chapter 3 gives a literature review of relevance of technology in today's business world, including various forecasting techniques that are relevant to the study. These techniques are a combination of traditional forecasting methods, technology forecasting methods and strategic planning methods. Various approaches to financial analysis have also been discussed, in order to determine the soundest method of comparing various forest engineering systems with each other. This includes an overview of traditional machine cost calculations. The core of the study lies in the combination of these methodologies into a useful method, which is particularly suited to forecasting the Forest Engineering value chain. Such a method is developed in Chapter 4, based on the literature review of forecasting methodologies. The method is then validated in Chapter 5, through the application thereof in the South African forestry industry. Global trends are established with the use of a Delphi study. This technique uses a panel of experts who give their views on future developments on a multiple round basis. The study then evaluates 14 Forest Engineering systems for pine sawtimber, pine pulpwood and Eucalyptus pulpwood, based on various scenarios of the future. The scenario matrix is based on the future cost of labour vs. the future cost of machinery. Finally, a strategy is proposed on how the South African forestry industry should prepare itself for the future.

AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die doelwit van die studie is om 'n nuwe metode te ontwikkel waarmee 'n vooruitskatting van die Bosingenieurswese waardeketting gemaak kan word. Die metode word dan in die Suid-Afrikaanse konteks toegepas om die geldigheid daarvan te beproef. Die Suid-Afrikaanse resultate word voorts gebruik om 'n nasionale Bosingenieurswese strategie voor te stel vir die bedryf. Dit is nodig om die verlede te verstaan, voor die toekoms vooruitgeskat kan word. Om dié rede is die historiese ontwikkeling van bosingenieurswese bespreek, in beide 'n internasionale, sowel as 'n Suid Afrikaanse konteks. Die huidige status quo van Bosingenieurswese in Suid Afrika is vasgestel deur 'n nasionale opname waarby plantasies van groter as 200 ha ingesluit is. Die resultate van die opname word weergegee in Hoofstuk 2. As gevolg van die belangrikheid van beide globalisering en tegnologie, is 'n literatuur studie ingesluit in Hoofstuk 3 oor die relevansie van tegnologie in die besigheidswêreld van vandag, asook en 'n bespreking van verskeie vooruitskattingstegnieke wat in die studie gebruik kan word. Hierdie vooruitskattinge is 'n kombinasie van tradisionele vooruitskattings tegnieke, tegnologie vooruitskattingstegnieke en tegnieke wat gebruik word vir strategiese beplanning. Verskeie benaderinge tot finansiële analise is ook bespreek. Dit sluit tradisionele masjienkoste berekening in. Die rede hiervoor is om vas te stel watter metode die mees geskikte sou wees om verskeie Bosingenieurswese sisteme met mekaar te vergelyk. Die kern van die studie lê in die kombinasie van hierdie metodes om 'n bruikbare metode te ontwerp om die Bosingenieurswese waardeketting vooruit te skat. Hierdie ontwerp word in Hoofstuk 4 bespreek. Die metode word in Hoofstuk 5 beproef, deur die toepassing daarvan op die Suid Afrikaanse bosbedryf. Internasionale bosingenieurswese tendense is vasgestel deur middel van 'n Delphi studie. Hierdie vooruitskatting maak gebruik van 'n paneel van kundiges wat hulle siening oor die toekoms uitspreek deur verskeie rondtes van vrae wat aan hulle gestel word. Die studie evalueer hierna 14 Bosingenieurswese sisteme vir denne saaghout, denne pulphout en Eucalyptus pulphout, gebaseer op 'n scenario-analise van die toekoms. Die scenario matriks is gefundeer op die toekomstige koste van arbeid teenoor die toekomstige koste van masjinerie. As 'n finale stap word voorgestel hoe die Suid Afrikaanse bosbedryf kan voorberei om die toekoms tegemoet te gaan.

Please refer to this item in SUNScholar by using the following persistent URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/52188
This item appears in the following collections: