Probabalistic load modelling of electrical demand of residential water heating

Urban, Graeme John (2012-03)

Thesis (MScEng)--Stellenbosch University, 2012.

Thesis

ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Energy efficiency and the move to renewable energy resources are of vital importance in growing profitable and sustainable economies. In recent years, greater emphasis has been placed on institutions, companies and individuals to reduce their electrical energy demand through energy management. In an attempt to reduce the demand, the electrical power utility in South Africa, Eskom, has introduced Demand Side Management programs and substantial increases in electricity tariffs. In addition to these, tax incentives have been offered to help off-set the capital costs associated with the investments made in replacing old electrical equipment with new electrically efficient equipment. Thus the need for accurate Measurement and Verification of electrical energy demand reduction, to substantiate fiscal claims, has become imperative. The main purpose of Measurement and Verification is to investigate the actual monetary performance of an energy savings project. Energy savings assessments, based on purely deterministic baseline demand, do not adequately represent the statistical nature of the savings impacts of many practical load systems, as disclosed in a reporting period. This thesis presents the development of a generic probabilistic methodology to determine the demand profiles of preand post-Energy Conservation Measures (ECMs) for practical load systems. The difference between the simulated demand of the pre- and post-ECMs for a particular set of variables represent the electrical demand impact. The electrical demand of the pre- and post-ECMs is defined in terms of Probability Density Functions, and derived using a multivariate kernel density estimation algorithm. The approach is tested using a simulation model of a waterheating geyser implemented in MATLAB. Three different ECMs are simulated using the geyser model and demand density estimation. The results of the demand impacts of the ECMs are presented and evaluated. With regards to possible future research this methodology could be applied to the evaluation of the demand impacts of heat pump technologies and solar water heaters.

AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: en die skuif na hernubare energiebronne is van deurslaggewende belang vir die ontwikkeling van winsgewende en volhoubare ekonomieë. Onlangs is meer klem geplaas op instansies, maatskappye en individue om hul aanvraag na energie te verminder met behulp van energiebestuur. In ‘n poging om die aanvraag te verlaag, het Eskom, Suid-Afrika se elektrisiteitsverskaffer, aansienlike elektrisiteitstariefverhogings ingelyf en Aanvraagbestuursprogramme van stapel gestuur. Bykomend hiertoe is belastingaansporings ook aangebied, waarteen kapitale kostes, geassosieer met die vervanging van ou elektriese toerusting met nuwe elektries doeltreffende toerusting, afgeset kan word. Derhalwe het die behoefte aan akkurate Meting en Verifikasie van elektriese energie aanvraagvermindering, om finansiële eise te staaf, noodsaaklik geword. Die hoofdoel van Meting en Verifikasie is om die werklike finansiële prestasie van energiebesparingsprojek te ondersoek soos bekend gemaak word tydens ’n verslagdoeningstydperk. Energiebesparingassesserings wat slegs gebaseer word op die suiwer deterministiese basislyn aanvraag na elektrisiteit, verteenwoordig nie die werklike statistiese aard van die besparingsimpakte van baie praktiese lasstelsels nie. Hierdie tesis stel die ontwikkeling van generiese waarskynlikheids-metodologie voor, om die voor- en na- Energiebesparings-maatreëls se aanvraagprofiele vir sulke praktiese lasstelsels, vas te stel. Die verskil tussen die gesimuleerde aanvraag van die voor- en na- Energiebesparings-maatreëls vir spesifieke stel veranderlikes verteenwoordig die elektriese aanvraag impak. Die voor- en na- Energiebesparings-maatreëls van die energieverbruik profieldata word gedefinieer in terme van Waarskynlikheidsdigtheidsfunksies en afgelei deur gebruik te maak van meerveranderlike kerndigtheidafskattingsalgoritme. Die benadering is getoets deur gebruik te maak van simuleringsmodel van warmwaterstelsel geïmplimenteer in MATLAB. Drie verskillende voor- en na- Energiebesparings-maatreëls is gesimuleer met behulp van die warmwaterstelselmodel en aanvraag digtheidafskatting. Die resultate van die elektriese aanvraag impakte van die voor- en na- Energiebesparings-maatreëls word vervolgens bespreek en geëvalueer. Met betrekking tot moontlike toekomstige navorsing kan hierdie metodologie toegepas word om die aanvraag impakte van hittepomp- en sonwaterverwarmingstegnologieë te evalueer.

Please refer to this item in SUNScholar by using the following persistent URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/20071
This item appears in the following collections: