FAMILY OF MODELS FOR DROUGHTS.
In this paper family of models is proposed which is sufficiently flexible to cover a range of different situations. The input to each model is daily, weekly or monthly rainfall depending on the resolution which is required. The drought model proposed is a seasonal Markov chain whose parameters are determined by those of the rainfall process and which can be estimated from historical rainfall records. The model lends itself to computing the probability that a particular drought level will occur at any given time of the year.