Using an adapted system dynamics approach to determine the linkage between electric vehicle market penetration and affordability
CITATION: Pillay, N. S., Brent, A. C. & Musango, J. K. 2018. Using an adapted system dynamics approach to determine the linkage between electric vehicle market penetration and affordability. In SAIIE29 Proceedings, 24-26 October 2018, Spier, Stellenbosch, South Africa.
The original publication is available at https://conferences.sun.ac.za/index.php/saiie29/saiie29/schedConf/presentations
This paper focuses on an adapted process for system dynamics modelling based on industry experience and the successful implementation of system dynamics models within an electricity utility. The modelling process was demonstrated using a case study of battery electric vehicle (BEV) market penetration in South Africa and its substitution of internal combustion engine vehicle, as a function of affordability based on real disposable income. The results indicate that South Africans are living beyond their “income” constraints and purchasing far more vehicles than what their disposable income allows, with the situation worsening over time. The Gauteng province will have the largest potential to absorb BEVs (81,123) and the highest impact on residential electricity consumption (an additional 4,291 GWh) whilst the lowest is the Northern Cape province with 5,140 BEVs (an equivalent of 272 GWh). However, if disposable income is used as a parametric to determine the affordability of BEVs then there may be 80% less than the expected number of BEVs in terms of market penetration. To benefit from a reduction in carbon emissions in the transport sector, a renewables heavy supply mix would be required else there is not much benefit with South Africa’s current coal heavy supply mix.