The financial implications of different crop rotation systems for the Goue Ruens

Nell, Casper Jan-Hendrik (2019-12)

Thesis (MCom)--Stellenbosch University, 2019.

Masters

ENGLISH SUMMARY : The world population is expected to increase to 10.9 billion by 2100 and consequently demand for food will increased. Increasing food production will most likely place more pressure on natural resources, and lead to environmental problems. These challenges create an urgent need for improved crop production systems and conservation focussed agriculture to aid in the management of such challenges. Conservation farming hold the three pillars of crop rotation, minimum soil disturbance and cover cropping. This study focus on the crop rotation aspect of conservation agriculture in the geographical region of the Goue Rûens. The main research objective was to evaluate the whole-farm long-term financial implications of different crop rotation systems within the Goue Rûens area. The crop rotation systems consisted of cash crops and livestock grazing on pastures. This study placed significant emphasis on the interactions between the crops. The systems approach served as the scientific foundation for this study, and entailed integrating the expert knowledge of relevant role players. The farming system is inherently complex, therefore the proposed method had to accommodate and integrate the interrelated factors of the system. Systems thinking was identified as a suitable tool for managing the associated complexities. The Delphi method was followed to integrate scientific crop rotation trial data with expert knowledge to assess the impacts of systems on whole farm level. Farm-level, multi-period budget modelling was employed to evaluate crop rotation systems in terms of the expected financial performance of the farm system under different rotation systems. A farm-level budget model incorporates crop rotation systems with associated investment requirements and production activities by the integration of physical, biological and financial factors. Standard accounting principle present the results in a format that famers understand. A typical farm served as point of departure for the model construction. Expert knowledge was employed to validate the assumptions regarding the physical properties of such a typical farm. A whole-farm multi-period budget model approach was used to evaluate the financial implications of each identified crop rotation system within the Goue Rûens area. This whole-farm multi-period model is able to integrate each system’s individual components, with their particular investment requirements and climate variability. Financial modelling, as a method, was successful in achieving the research goal. Each of the individual crop rotation systems included in the Tygerhoek crop rotation trial was simulated in a whole-farm context through a multi-period budget to calculate the expected financial performance of each system. The output gained from this research method allowed for the financial comparison of the various systems, using the internal rate of return on capital investment (IRR). The range of the IRRs for the different crop rotation systems at a whole-farm multi-period level was relatively narrow. No system was observed that significantly outperformed any of the other respective systems. It did however indicate the importance of combinations of crops and wheat as well as barley in the same system.

AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING : Die wêreld bevolking sal na verwagting toeneem tot 10.9 biljoen teen 2100 en gevolglik sal die vraag na voedsel ook toeneem. Toenemende voedselproduksie sal waarskynlik meer druk op natuurlike hulpbronne plaas en lei tot omgewingsprobleme. Hierdie uitdagings skep ‘n dringende behoefte vir verbeterde gewasproduksie stelsels en bewarings gefokusde landbou om te help met die bestuur van die uitdagings. Bewaringsboerdery hou die drie pilare voor van gewas-wisselbou, minimum grondversteuring en dekgewas bewerking. Die studie fokus op die gewas wisselbou aspek van bewaringsboerdery in die geografiese gebied van die Goue Rûens. Die hoof navorsingsdoelwit was om die geheelplaas, langtermyn finansiële implikasies van verskillende gewas wisselboustelsels in die Goue Rûens area te evalueer. Die gewas- wisselboustelsels bestaan uit kontantgewas stelsels en kontant en weidings gewas stelsels met ʼn vee komponent. Die studie benadruk die interaksies tussen die verskillende gewasse. Die stelselsbenadering dien as die wetenskaplike fondasie vir die studie en omsluit die integrasie van ekspert kennis van verskillende rolspelers. Die boerdery stelsel is inherent kompleks daarom moet die voorgestelde metode die verskillende interafhanklike komponente van die stelsel akkommodeer en integreer. Stelsels denke is geïdentifiseer as toepaslike hulpmiddel om die gepaardgaande kompleksiteit te hanteer. Die Delphi metode is gevolg om wetenskaplike wisselboustelsel data te integreer met ekspert kennis om die verwagte impak van die verskillende stelsel op die geheelplaas te assesseer. Plaasvlak, multi-periode begrotings modellering is aangewend om die verskillende gewasverbouingstelsels te evalueer in terme van geheel plaas finansiële prestasie. ʼn Plaasvlak begrotingsmodel inkorporeer die gewas wisselboustelsels met geassosieerde investeringsbehoefte en produksie aktiwiteite deur die fisies/biologiese en finansiële aspekte van die boerdery te integreer. Standaard rekeningkundige beginsels bied die resultate in ʼn verstaanbare formaat vir produsente. ‘n Tipiese plaas dien as vertrekpunt vir die model konstruksie. Ekspert kennis is aangewend om die aannames aangaande die fisiese omvang van die tipiese plaas te valideer. ʼn Geheelplaas multi-periode begrotingsmodel benadering is aangewend om die finansiële implikasies te evalueer van elke geïdentifiseerde gewas-wisselboustelsel in die Goue Rûens area. Die geheelplaas multi-periode model is in staat om die verskillende individuele komponente te integreer met elke toepaslike investerings behoefte en klimaat wisselvalligheid. Finansiële modellering was suksesvol aangewend ten einde die navorsingsdoel te bereik. Elke gewas wisselboustelsel wat in die Tygerhoek wisselboustelsel proewe ingesluit is, is gesimuleer in ʼn geheelplaas konteks deur middel van ʼn multi-periode begrotings model om die verwagte finansiële prestasie te bepaal. Die uitset van die navorsingsmetode laat toe vir die finansiële vergelyking van die verskillende stelsels deur gebruik te maak van die interne opbrengs koers op kapitaal investering (IOK). Die reeks IOK’s vir die verskillende stelsels op duie geheelplaasvlak is relatief nou. Geen gewasstelsel is waargeneem wat beduidend beter gevaar het as die ander stelsels nie. Daar is egter aanduiding van die belangrikheid van verskillende gewas kombinasies en van koring en gars in dieselfde stelsels.

Please refer to this item in SUNScholar by using the following persistent URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/107232
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