Integration costs of renewable energy technologies in future energy generation scenarios

Sklar-Chik, M. D. ; Brent, A. C. ; De Kock, I. H. (2018-08-31)

CITATION: Sklar-Chik, M. D., Brent, A. C. & De Kock, I. H. 2018. Integration costs of renewable energy technologies in future energy generation scenarios. South African Journal of Industrial Engineering, 29(2):28-42, doi:10.7166/29-2-1801.

The original publication is available at http://sajie.journals.ac.za

Article

ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The objective of the paper is to understand the integration costs of renewable energy technologies (RETs) in future energy generation scenarios for South Africa. The study used PLEXOS1 to conduct a bottom-up hourly simulation, incorporating the high renewable energy scenarios of the World Wildlife Fund (WWF) for 2030, in which RET penetrations are projected to be below 20 per cent. After verification and validation of the model by PLEXOS subject matter experts, the final model was run with two cases: a base case, and a constraint case. The results for these two cases for the year 2030 exhibited system costs of R0.39/kWh and R0.48/kWh respectively. A secondary output was the levelised cost of energy values for a number of energy generation technologies. A sensitivity analysis subsequently revealed that the largest contributor to a change in system costs is the demand forecast, followed by an increase in renewable energy outputs. Finally, recommendations are made to improve future energy modelling research by addressing the key assumptions of this research inquiry.

AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die doel van hierdie artikel is om die integrasie kostes van hernubare energie tegnologieë (HETs) met toekomstige energie-opwekkingscenario’s vir Suid Afrika te ondersoek. ʼn PLEXOS1 model is gebruik om die World Wildlife Fund (WWF) se hoë hernubare energie scenario vir 2030, waar HET se netwerk-penetrasie vlakke voorspel word om minder as 20 persent te wees, te simuleer. Na verifikasie en validasie van die ontwikkelde PLEXOS1 model met verskeie kundiges, het die finale iterasie met twee gevalle vorendag gekom, naamlik ’n basis-geval en ’n beperkte-geval. Die resultate van hierdie twee scenario’s vir die jaar 2030 is stelselkostes van onderskeidelik R0.39/kWh en R0.48/kWh. ’n Sekondêre uitset was die gelykgestelde koste van energie waardes vir van die energie opwekkingstegnologieë. Daarna is ’n sensitiwiteitsanalise gedoen om te bepaal wat die grootste bydraende faktor tot verandering in stelselkostes en die aanvraagsvoorspelling is. Laastens is aanbevelings gemaak oor hoe om toekomstige modellerings uitkomstes in hierdie area van navorsing te verbeter deur die sleutel aannames van so ’n navorsingsvoorstel aan te spreek.

Please refer to this item in SUNScholar by using the following persistent URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/104384
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