Browsing by Author "Rossouw, Theresa M."
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- ItemCumulative viral load as a predictor of CD4+ Tcell response to antiretroviral therapy using Bayesian statistical models(PLoS, 2019-11-13) Sempa, Joseph B.; Rossouw, Theresa M.; Lesaffre, Emmanuel; Nieuwoudt, MartinIntroduction: There are Challenges in statistically modelling immune responses to longitudinal HIV viral load exposure as a function of covariates. We define Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo mixed effects models to incorporate priors and examine the effect of different distributional assumptions. We prospectively fit these models to an as-yet-unpublished data from the Tshwane District Hospital HIV treatment clinic in South Africa, to determine if cumulative log viral load, an indicator of long-term viral exposure, is a valid predictor of immune response. Methods: Models are defined, to express ‘slope’, i.e. mean annual increase in CD4 counts, and ‘asymptote’, i.e. the odds of having a CD4 count ≥500 cells/μL during antiretroviral treatment, as a function of covariates and random-effects. We compare the effect of using informative versus non-informative prior distributions on model parameters. Models with cubic splines or Skew-normal distributions are also compared using the conditional Deviance Information Criterion. Results: The data of 750 patients are analyzed. Overall, models adjusting for cumulative log viral load provide a significantly better fit than those that do not. An increase in cumulative log viral load is associated with a decrease in CD4 count slope (19.6 cells/μL (95% credible interval: 28.26, 10.93)) and a reduction in the odds of achieving a CD4 counts ≥500 cells/μL (0.42 (95% CI: 0.236, 0.730)) during 5 years of therapy. Using informative priors improves the cumulative log viral load estimate, and a skew-normal distribution for the random-intercept and measurement error results is a better fit compared to using classical Gaussian distributions. Discussion: We demonstrate in an unpublished South African cohort that cumulative log viral load is a strong and significant predictor of both CD4 count slope and asymptote. We argue that Bayesian methods should be used more frequently for such data, given their flexibility to incorporate prior information and non-Gaussian distributions.
- ItemRapid emergence of resistance to antiretroviral treatment after undisclosed prior exposure : a case report(AOSIS Publishing, 2019) Rossouw, Theresa M.; Van Dyk, Gisela; van Zyl, GertIntroduction: Patients who disengaged from care may present as therapy naïve for antiretroviral treatment (ART) initiation at a different site, without being recognised as being at an increased risk of rapid treatment failure and HIV drug resistance. Patient presentation: A 43-year-old woman, who gave no prior history of ART, was initiated on a standard first-line regimen of TDF, FTC and EFV. She had a poor response to treatment with evidence of treatment failure at 12 months. Management and outcome: HIV-1 drug resistance tests showed no pre-treatment HIVDR mutations, but revealed high-level drug resistance to all component drugs at 12 months. On investigation, viral load (VL) was recorded in 2012 and 2013, providing evidence of prior ART use. Conclusion: Linkage of patient therapy and laboratory information to unique patient identifiers may allow health-care workers to identify patients who previously received ART and disengaged from care. This will enable differentiated care when these patients reinitiate ART, which should involve expedited VL testing and more rapid transition to definitive second-line ART.