Browsing by Author "Breedt, Jana"
Now showing 1 - 2 of 2
Results Per Page
Sort Options
- ItemDemand forecasting for network capacity planning in electrical utilities – a review of existing methods considering the evolving technologies of the energy arena(South African Institute for Industrial Engineering, 2018) Breedt, Jana; Louw, Louis; De Kock, Imke H.ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Planning for sufficient energy resources in a country is of paramount importance to ensure sustainable development of the economy and prosperity of its citizens. In South Africa the national utility, Eskom, is tasked to create a balance between the electricity demand and the supply thereof. Forecasting the electricity load on the networks to supply the country demand becomes an important task to ensure that capacity planning does not constrain potential growth, and neither does it construct overinvestment to compromise feasibility of implementation. The landscape of energy utilization is currently experiencing rapid evolution in technology and poses significant challenges to the way the electricity demand forecast needs to be done. Technology is evolving to provide more efficient, cost effective and reliable alternative energy sources than the conventional methods used in the past. Improved electricity efficiency and user behavior plays a significant role in future electricity demand requirements. This paper provides a comparative literature review on current forecasting methodologies to provide insight to which of these methods can be utilized in the future. A set of requirements is concluded on to identify the most relevant and effective forecasting methodologies to improve accuracy on forecasting electricity demand into the technology advanced future.
- ItemA forecasting framework for demand forecasting of utility-scale electricity networks in a rapidly evolving power system environment(Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 2021-12) Breedt, Jana; Louw, Louis; De Kock, ImkeENGLISH ABSTRACT: Planning for sufficient energy resources in a country is of paramount importance to ensure the sustainable development of the economy and the prosperity of its citizens. The landscape of energy utilisation is currently experiencing rapid evolution. Progression in technology associated with electricity use and the generation thereof introduces new opportunities, increasing system complexity and uncertainty. The evolution is driven by the need to accommodate and integrate renewable energy resources and a migration towards a sustainable carbon-free footprint. Many utilities have launched grid modernisation efforts to accommodate these changes and meet evolving customer needs (Von Dollen and Rogers, 2020). These changes in the energy industry pose significant challenges to the traditional methodologies used to forecast the peak demand for electricity. A utility and its environment operate interdependently. Therefore, several factors beyond natural demand drivers influence the equilibrium of the electricity demand and supply system. An overview of available literature assisted in evaluating the changes in the energy sector and the availability of existing frameworks to assist in forecasting strategic electricity demand with renewable energy sources incorporated. Several frameworks for energy forecasting were found; however, most of the frameworks addressed short term forecasting and did not include renewable generation, the effect of new technology and consumer behaviour will have on electricity demand. Furthermore, most models are quantitatively driven, and a lack of qualitative assumptions for the long-term forecasting horizons was noted (Lindberg et al., 2019). Therefore, a distinct need was presented to identify factors and interlinking concepts to forecast a utility’s demand and combine these analytically within a forecasting framework. The framework aims to assist an electricity demand forecaster in constructing strategic forecast scenarios for network capacity, including the complexities of renewable technology. The research proposes the Integrated Strategic Electricity Demand (ISED) forecasting framework to provide a holistic view of the energy sector and changes from a decarbonised society hosting increased renewable electricity sources. The framework was designed with conceptual framework methodologies, enterprise engineering concepts and -frameworks formats. The South African national utility, Eskom Holdings SOC Ltd (Eskom), was identified as a case study and assisted in an inductive approach to identifying the requirements for a conceptual framework to be applied in long-term strategic forecasting for electricity utilities qualitative data analysis and observations. The case study was also used to validate the framework for applicability. The key finding from the research pertained to the importance of an integrated framework to provide a holistic approach towards implementing a forecast in line with business strategy and goals. The success of a forecast depends highly on an integrated system, and the use of the conceptual framework exemplified the importance of collaboration and strategic planning as a holistic business approach. The research gap was addressed by providing a combined set of factors to guide an electricity demand forecaster. It further contributes to the forecasting environment by providing a base for further research in modelling the identified factors into integrated forecasting models of the future.