Extinction risk from climate change
Date
2004
Authors
Thomas C.D.
Cameron A.
Green R.E.
Bakkenes M.
Beaumont L.J.
Collingham Y.C.
Erasmus B.F.N.
Ferreira De Siqueira M.
Grainger A.
Hannah L.
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Abstract
Climate change over the past ∼30 years has produced numerous shifts in the distributions and abundances of species and has been implicated in one species-level extinction. Using projections of species' distributions for future climate scenarios, we assess extinction risks for sample regions that cover some 20% of the Earth's terrestrial surface. Exploring three approaches in which the estimated probability of extinction shows a power-law relationship with geographical range size, we predict, on the basis of mid-range climate-warming scenarios for 2050, that 15-37% of species in our sample of regions and taxa will be 'committed to extinction'. When the average of the three methods and two dispersal scenarios is taken, minimal climate-warming scenarios produce lower projections of species committed to extinction (∼18%) than mid-range (∼24%) and maximum-change (∼35%) scenarios. These estimates show the importance of rapid implementation of technologies to decrease greenhouse gas emissions and strategies for carbon sequestration.
Description
Keywords
Biodiversity, Earth (planet), Gas emissions, Greenhouse effect, Risk assessment, Carbon sequestration, Climate change, climate change, global warming, mass extinction, risk assessment, article, carbon sequestration, climate, climate change, gas, geographic distribution, greenhouse, priority journal, probability, risk assessment, species extinction, Animals, Biodiversity, Carbon, Conservation of Natural Resources, Geography, Greenhouse Effect, Models, Theoretical, Risk Assessment, Species Specificity, Time Factors
Citation
Nature
427
6970
427
6970