# The development of an integrated effectiveness model for aerial targets

Thesis (MScEng (Mathematical Sciences. Applied Mathematics))--University of Stellenbosch, 2007.

Thesis

During the design or acquisition of missile systems the effectiveness of the system needs to be evaluated. Often actual testing is not possible and therefore mathematical models need to be constructed and solved with the aid of software. The current simulation model is investigated, verified, and a mathematical model to aid in the design of the detonic payload, developed. The problem is confined to the end-game scenario with the developed simulation model focusing on the last milliseconds before warhead detonation. The model, that makes use of the raytracing methodology, models the warhead explosion in the vicinity of a target and calculates the probability of kill for the specific warhead design against the target. Using the data generated by the simulation model, the warhead designer can make the necessary design changes to improve the design. A heuristic method was developed and is discussed which assists in this design process. There is, however, a large population of possible designs. Meta-heuristic methods may be employed in reducing this population and to help confine the manual search to a considerably smaller search area. A fuze detection model as well as the capability to generate truly random intercept scenarios was developed as to enable employment of meta-heuristic search methods. The simulation model, as well as design optimising technology, has successfully been incorporated into a Windows based software package known as EVA (The Effectiveness and Vulnerability Analyser).