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Including irrigation in niche modelling of the invasive wasp Vespula germanica (Fabricius) improves model fit to predict potential for further spread

dc.contributor.authorDe Villiers, Marelizeen_ZA
dc.contributor.authorKriticos, Darren J.en_ZA
dc.contributor.authorVeldtman, Ruanen_ZA
dc.date.accessioned2019-02-22T09:44:56Z
dc.date.available2019-02-22T09:44:56Z
dc.date.issued2017
dc.identifier.citationDe Villiers, M., Kriticos, D. J. & Veldtman, R. 2017. Including irrigation in niche modelling of the invasive wasp Vespula germanica (Fabricius) improves model fit to predict potential for further spread. PLoS ONE, 2(7):e0181397, doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0181397
dc.identifier.issn1932-6203 (online)
dc.identifier.otherdoi:10.1371/journal.pone.0181397
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/105460
dc.descriptionCITATION: De Villiers, M., Kriticos, D. J. & Veldtman, R. 2017. Including irrigation in niche modelling of the invasive wasp Vespula germanica (Fabricius) improves model fit to predict potential for further spread. PLoS ONE, 2(7):e0181397, doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0181397.
dc.descriptionThe original publication is available at https://journals.plos.org/plosone
dc.description.abstractThe European wasp, Vespula germanica (Fabricius) (Hymenoptera: Vespidae), is of Palaearctic origin, being native to Europe, northern Africa and Asia, and introduced into North America, Chile, Argentina, Iceland, Ascension Island, South Africa, Australia and New Zealand. Due to its polyphagous nature and scavenging behaviour, V. germanica threatens agriculture and silviculture, and negatively affects biodiversity, while its aggressive nature and venomous sting pose a health risk to humans. In areas with warmer winters and longer summers, queens and workers can survive the winter months, leading to the build-up of large nests during the following season; thereby increasing the risk posed by this species. To prevent or prepare for such unwanted impacts it is important to know where the wasp may be able to establish, either through natural spread or through introduction as a result of human transport. Distribution data from Argentina and Australia, and seasonal phenology data from Argentina were used to determine the potential distribution of V. germanica using CLIMEX modelling. In contrast to previous models, the influence of irrigation on its distribution was also investigated. Under a natural rainfall scenario, the model showed similarities to previous models. When irrigation is applied, dry stress is alleviated, leading to larger areas modelled climatically suitable compared with previous models, which provided a better fit with the actual distribution of the species. The main areas at risk of invasion by V. germanica include western USA, Mexico, small areas in Central America and in the north-western region of South America, eastern Brazil, western Russia, north-western China, Japan, the Mediterranean coastal regions of North Africa, and parts of southern and eastern Africa.en_ZA
dc.description.urihttps://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0181397
dc.format.extent17 pages
dc.language.isoen_ZAen_ZA
dc.publisherPublic Library of Science
dc.subjectVespa germanicaen_ZA
dc.titleIncluding irrigation in niche modelling of the invasive wasp Vespula germanica (Fabricius) improves model fit to predict potential for further spreaden_ZA
dc.typeArticleen_ZA
dc.description.versionPublisher's version
dc.rights.holderAuthors retain copyright


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