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Modelling the role of correctional services on gangs : insights through a mathematical model

dc.contributor.authorNyabadza, F.en_ZA
dc.contributor.authorOgbogbo, C. P.en_ZA
dc.contributor.authorMushanyu, J.en_ZA
dc.date.accessioned2018-11-21T06:31:01Z
dc.date.available2018-11-21T06:31:01Z
dc.date.issued2017
dc.identifier.citationNyabadza, F., Ogbogbo, C. P. & Mushanyu, J. 2017. Modelling the role of correctional services on gangs : insights through a mathematical model. Royal Society Open Science, 4:170511, doi:10.1098/rsos.170511
dc.identifier.issn2054-5703 (online)
dc.identifier.otherdoi:10.1098/rsos.170511
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/104710
dc.descriptionCITATION: Nyabadza, F., Ogbogbo, C. P. & Mushanyu, J. 2017. Modelling the role of correctional services on gangs : insights through a mathematical model. Royal Society Open Science, 4:170511, doi:10.1098/rsos.170511.
dc.descriptionThe original publication is available at http://rsos.royalsocietypublishing.org
dc.description.abstractResearch has shown that gang membership increases the chances of offending, antisocial behaviour and drug use. Gang membership should be acknowledged as part of crime prevention and policy designs, and when developing interventions and preventative programmes. Correctional services are designed to rehabilitate convicted offenders. We formulate a deterministic mathematical model using nonlinear ordinary differential equations to investigate the role of correctional services on the dynamics of gangs. The recruitment into gang membership is assumed to happen through an imitation process. An epidemic threshold value, Rg, termed the gang reproduction number, is proposed and defined herein in the gangs’ context. The model is shown to exhibit the phenomenon of backward bifurcation. This means that gangs may persist in the population even if Rg is less than one. Sensitivity analysis of Rg was performed to determine the relative importance of different parameters in gang initiation. The critical efficacy ε* is evaluated and the implications of having functional correctional services are discussed.en_ZA
dc.description.urihttp://rsos.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/4/10/170511
dc.format.extent14 pages
dc.language.isoen_ZAen_ZA
dc.publisherRoyal Society
dc.subjectGangsen_ZA
dc.subjectCorrectionsen_ZA
dc.subjectGang membersen_ZA
dc.subjectGang prevention -- South Africa -- Mathematical modelsen_ZA
dc.titleModelling the role of correctional services on gangs : insights through a mathematical modelen_ZA
dc.typeArticleen_ZA
dc.description.versionPublisher's version
dc.rights.holderAuthors retain copyright


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