Doctoral Degrees (Economics)

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Access to healthcare services in resource-constrained environments : evidence from Zimbabwe
(Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 2023-12) Chari, Abigail; Burger, Ronelle; von Fintel, Dieter; Stellenbosch University. Faculty of Economic and Management Sciences. Dept. of Economics.
ENGLISH SUMMARY: Access to healthcare services is fundamental to health and well-being, yet approximately half of the world’s population is unable to access healthcare services in times of need, which derails attainment of the Sustainable Development Goals. Weak access to healthcare services is a global health challenge, and is prevalent in Zimbabwe. This weak access is attributed to a fragile and fragmented health system, characterised by weak and ineffective service delivery. The fragmented health system affects particularly the already disadvantaged population through healthcare services that are either unaffordable or unavailable. As part of achieving the global Sustainable Development Goals, Zimbabwe aims to address inequality in and weak access to its healthcare services. This thesis examined fiscal incidence and inequality in access to healthcare services in Zimbabwe, using 2017 administrative health expenditure data from the Ministry of Health and Child Care and the Prices, Income, Consumption and Expenditure Survey of the Zimbabwe National Statistics Agency. Fiscal incidence was found to be, on average, pro-poor for Zimbabwe’s low-level facilities, and pro-rich for high-level facilities. It was further found that availability and affordability are, on average, pro-rich. Thus, differential access to health services between rural and urban areas was contributing to pro-rich inequality. Despite government healthcare expenditure, inequality in availability and affordability of healthcare services remains a challenge. Pockets of inequality persist in the healthcare sector, as the more affluent continue to benefit from well-resourced facilities. The government should, therefore, focus on poor and rural populations, who bear the brunt of weak access to healthcare services. While the effects and causes of drug stockouts are well articulated, there is a dearth of literature on the link between district-level drug stockouts and poverty. This thesis investigated the spatial inequality of drug stockouts and the relationship between drug stockouts and district poverty in Zimbabwe using data on district-level drug stockouts and poverty. The results showed that spatial inequality in drug stockouts and district poverty exists, while the relationship between drug stockouts and district poverty was weak and insignificant. Spatial interdependence in drug stockouts between districts also exists, indicating hot spots in drug stockouts. In times of drug stockouts, individuals tend to use alternatives to healthcare, some of which pose health dangers, and it is therefore important to improve drug availability in underserved districts by reducing spatial inequality and hot spots in drug stockouts. Given the negative effects of malaria on the vulnerable population, this thesis examined the association between malaria prophylaxis stockouts and birth- and maternal outcomes in Zimbabwe. Preventive efforts against malaria are crucial, given that pregnant women and neonates bear the greatest malaria burden. Therefore, it was hypothesised that women who do not receive malaria prophylaxis during pregnancy are at risk of malaria infections, which compromise birth weight and cause maternal anaemia. Combining the administrative data on malaria prophylaxis stockouts and 2015 nationally representative Demographic Health Survey data, the results showed that malaria prophylaxis stockouts occur frequently over time, and have a significant association with birth weight, especially for neonates with an average birth weight. Stockouts are associated with neonates tending towards the lower end of a normal birth weight, compromising their development. Thus, there is a need to invest in pharmaceutical information- and stock-ordering systems to improve drug availability at the point of care. In conclusion, there is inequality in healthcare services in Zimbabwe, which causes a heavy burden on poor and rural populations. These vulnerable populations have weak access to healthcare services, despite the government's efforts to improve service provision. This thesis sheds more light on access to healthcare services, to enhance relevant stakeholders’ understanding of this subject. To achieve an equitable society, policymakers should address the inequalities in access to healthcare services, together with the socio-demographic determinants of health. Policymakers should improve resource management, follow a needs-based approach, invest in pharmaceutical information systems and stock-ordering systems, and foster multi-stakeholder collaboration to ensure improved access to healthcare services.
Aspects of the economics of water management in urban settings in South Africa, with a focus on Cape Town
(Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 2012-03) Jansen, Ada Isobel; Van der Berg, Servaas; Stellenbosch University. Faculty of Economic and Management Sciences. Dept. of Economics.
ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Concerns about the sufficiency of freshwater supplies and the impact of water shortages have placed sustainable water management on the global agenda. This is particularly relevant in South Africa, a country with precipitation rates well below the global average and water resources that have become highly polluted. The scarcity of water for consumption use and of unpolluted water bodies as recreational and environmental good highlights the need for an economic analysis of these issues. This dissertation investigates some economic aspects of water management in the South African context in two distinctive parts. Part One (Chapters 2 to 5) aims to provide an understanding of urban water demand and analyses water pricing as demand management tool. Part Two (Chapters 6 and 7) analyses the values people attach to water resources for recreational and environmental purposes. Quantitative methodological approaches are predominantly used to inform an economic perspective on water demand management. The extent of water scarcity is discussed in Chapter Two. South Africa is approaching physical water scarcity, but many poor households do not yet have access to water and basic sanitation facilities, i.e. there is also economic water scarcity. Given this background, Chapter Three focuses on water demand management as part of an integrated water management approach. The role of water prices is discussed, in particular the Increasing Block Tariff (IBT) structure which is predominantly used in South Africa. Chapter Four estimates the price elasticity of demand for water using household water consumption records obtained from the City of Cape Town (CCT). A distinctive feature of this case study is a survey undertaken to collect household information on demographic and water-use characteristics, as water databases are severely lacking in South Africa. The results show water demand to be mostly price inelastic, which concurs with findings from international empirical literature. Furthermore, higher-income households are found to be more sensitive to price changes, thus some reduction in water consumption can be achieved by increasing marginal prices at the upper end of the IBT structure. Chapter Five analyses the IBT structure as a redistributive tool. Particular attention is given to the Free Basic Water policy of South Africa, which allows each household to receive six kilolitres of water free per month. Empirical modelling indicates that the IBT structure in its current form holds limited benefits for the poor, given the state of service delivery in South Africa: the lack of access to the water network prevents the poorest households from being the recipients of the cross-subsidisation occurring in an IBT structure. Part Two studies urban water resources as recreational and environmental goods. The literature review of environmental valuation techniques in Chapter Six places particular emphasis on the Contingent Valuation Method. This method is applied in Chapter Seven, where the value of improving the environmental quality of a freshwater urban lake is analysed in a middle- to low-income urban area. Another survey was undertaken specifically for this purpose of gauging the willingness to pay for improved recreational facilities and water quality of Zeekoevlei. The results show that low-income households do attach value to urban environmental goods, a result which adds to our knowledge of willingness to pay for environmental goods in developing countries.
The assessment and improvement of the health status of vulnerable and low income individuals in South Africa: an analysis using quantitative and experimental methods
(Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 2016-12) Rossouw, Laura; Burger, Ronelle; Van der Berg, Servaas; Stellenbosch University. Faculty of Economic and Management Sciences. Dept. of Economics.
ENGLISH SUMMARY : More than two decades after the end of apartheid, inequalities in health across socioeconomic subgroups are still a pervasive and persistent trend. South Africa also faces a high burden of disease which is disproportionate to its level of economic development. This dissertation contains three chapters on the contribution of demand-side factors to South Africa’s health burden, focusing on the health perceptions and eventual health choices of vulnerable individuals. Vulnerable individuals assessed in this dissertation include the income and wealth poor and, in particular, women living in low-resource areas with limited access to sexual and reproductive health services. Evidence is provided on innovative interventions aimed at improving the health-seeking behaviour and health outcomes of these individuals. Chapter two of the dissertation calculates the impact of reporting differences on the accurate measurement of health inequalities by wealth status. The analysis is performed by benchmarking the reporting behaviour of individuals using anchoring vignettes. A statistically significant difference in the reporting behaviour by wealth status is found, which will lead to an underestimation of health inequalities to the disadvantage of the poor. Chapter three explains how a package intervention to improve the health-seeking behaviour of pregnant women living in a low-resource area in the Western Cape was designed, implemented and tested. The results from a randomized controlled trial show that a community health worker programme and an incentive jointly led to a statistically significant improvement in the timing and frequency of antenatal care-seeking behaviour. The impact of the intervention on behaviour change is explored by measuring differences in the preferences for care. This heterogeneity in preferences for antenatal care is measured by looking at differences in time preferences and prioritization. The intervention also led to a statistically significant reduction in maternal depressive symptoms and a statistically significant improvement in the intention to exclusively breastfeed for six months. Lastly, the fourth chapter considers the cost-efficiency of two alternative approaches to providing women with better access to urine pregnancy tests. Even though having access to these tests have been linked to improved timing of healthcare-seeking behaviour, the availability and acceptability of test distribution at public health facilities is of poor quality. Two approaches, namely distribution at a mobile health facility and door-to-door distribution, are compared. Door-to-door distribution is found to be a more cost-effective approach. The dissertation is aimed at establishing a better understanding of the demand-side of health, the factors driving health-seeking behaviour and the factors affecting health reporting.
An assessment of malaria prevention, diagnosis and treatment services in Uganda
(Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 2022-04) Kimbugwe, Hassan; Burger, Ronelle; Matovu, Fred; Stellenbosch University. Faculty of Economic and Management Sciences. Dept. of Economics.
ENGLISH SUMMARY: Government, donor partners, and the private sector invest large amounts of financial resources annually in malaria prevention and care. Despite substantial spending on malaria prevention programmes by 2019/2020, the disease still accounted for 13.3% Uganda's mortality, as well as 29.8% of outpatient visits and 34.9% of inpatient admissions. To combat malaria more effectively, it is critical to understand whether these substantial investments in malaria prevention and care reach those who are most vulnerable to malaria, and whether approved malaria diagnosis and treatment protocols are followed diligently. This PhD was thus structured to consider three distinct but related issues: (i) the equity of bed net use and ownership in 2009 and 2014, (ii) the uptake of malaria prophylaxis amongst pregnant women, and (iii) the relationship between financial incentives and appropriate malaria diagnosis and case management. The first essay examines the equity in access to and utilisation of bed nets in 2009 and 2014. It was found that the availability of bed nets increased over time. Access to and use of bed nets became more equitable, with higher levels of access and use amongst poorer households. Households with access to at least one bed net rose from 59.2% to 94.1%. The percentage of households who slept under bed nets increased from 51.8% to 72.6%. The percentage of children under five years who slept under bed nets increased from 45.8% to 81.5%. The percentage of pregnant women who slept under bed nets increased from 78.6% to 83.8%. Through recentered influence functions (RIF) decomposition method, the study examined whether the demographic factors were associated with the relationship between the wealth index and bed net utilisation in 2009 and 2014. Results suggest that in 2009, place of residence, number of nets in a household, mother’s education level, region and household size were associated with the relationship between wealth index and bed net utilisation. In 2014, age of household members, and mother’s education level were associated with the relationship between the wealth index and bed net utilisation. In both years having a mother with at least primary level of education was vital in promoting bed net utilisation. The results further indicate that younger household members, women, household members from the northern region, household members from the poorest wealth quintile, mothers with a post-secondary education, and households with more bed nets and few members were more likely to sleep under bed nets in 2014. The second essay reviews factors associated with uptake of intermittent preventive treatment (IPT) of three doses of Sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP) (IPT-SP3) during pregnancy. The analysis indicated a double and notable improvement in uptake over time, from 9.91% in 2011 to 17.89% in 2016. However, the uptake was still far below the 79% target of Uganda’s Health Sector Strategic Plan (Uganda Ministry of Health (MoH) 2014). Results showed that uptake was higher amongst younger women (under the age of 25 years) than older women (above the age of 34 years), higher amongst women who attended their first antenatal care (ANC) visit early (during the first trimester) than those who attended later (during the third trimester), higher amongst women from the upper wealth quintile than women from the poorest quintile, and higher amongst women from the northern region of Uganda than among women from the central region. Results also indicated that uptake of IPT-SP3 was lower amongst women from the western region than women from the central region. Findings from the pooled model (unrestricted) indicate that the relationship between IPT-SP3 and the covariates in the two different time period (2011 and 2016) have not changed. The third and final essay focuses on the relationship between financial incentives and the likelihood of private providers adhering to national guidelines on malaria diagnosis and dispensing practices. The specific concern is that volume or revenue-based staff remuneration may provide a strong incentive for provision of malaria drugs to patients who have not yet tested for malaria. This tension is observed in a subsample where facilities do not have malaria testing capabilities and only sell malaria treatment and staff are paid based on the volume of drugs sold or the revenue. The results suggest that the private healthcare providers who receive salaries are more likely to adhere to malaria treatment protocols. Descriptive findings indicate significant variations between drug-shop attendants and other private healthcare providers with regard to malaria diagnosis, antimalarial dispensing practices, and adhering to malaria treatment procedure.
Balance sheet policies and financial stability : central banking reimagined
(Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 2016-12) Van Lill, Dawid Johannes; Du Plessis, Stan, 1972-; Reid, Monique B.; Liu, Guangling; Stellenbosch University. Faculty of Economic and Management Sciences. Dept. of Economics.
ENGLISH SUMMARY : Balance sheet policies have become the primary policy lever of several central banks in the wake of the international financial crisis. However, with inflated central bank balance sheets, and global economic conditions returning to normal, the future of balance sheet policies needs to be considered. In this thesis I aimed to define a role for balance sheet policies in the monetary policy toolkit, especially with regard to financial stability. First, I developed an explicit definition of balance sheet policies and their channels of transmission to help resolve the confusion clearly visible in the academic literature and popular media. Second, I explored the changing nature of central bank operational frameworks, which identifies several new regimes. Third, I developed a dynamic general equilibrium model that implements supply-side financial frictions and the salient features of balance sheet policies. My first empirical chapter employed a time-varying parameter vector autoregressive (TVPVAR) model to establish the nature of the relationship between central bank liabilities and the overnight policy rate. Four countries with different monetary policy regimes were considered. It was found that a clear negative relationship between these variables exists only in the case of one regime, namely the reserve regime. This result indicates that the introduction of new operational frameworks for central banks have challenged the traditional model of monetary policy implementation. The practical implication of the decoupling of interest rates from reserves is that central bank balance sheets potentially can be used alongside conventional interest rate policy. In the last two chapters of the thesis a dynamic general equilibrium model was developed, equipped with a heterogeneous banking sector, endogenous default and collateralised lending on the part of the central bank. Within this framework, changes along the dimensions of size and composition of the central bank’s balance sheet were integrated. Increasing the size in this model significantly contributed to financial stability. However, when used in conjunction with interest rate policy, it could cause conflicting effects. Changes in its composition establish local supply effects, which means that long-term interest rates are depressed, an explicit goal of many asset purchase programmes. Changing the composition has an impact beyond that for the change in size, relaxing borrowing conditions even more than a pure injection of liquidity.
Bargaining competition and vertical mergers
(Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 2022-04) Minnie, Roan Johan; Boshoff, Willem Hendrik; Stellenbosch University. Faculty of Economic and Management Sciences. Dept. of Economics.
ENGLISH SUMMARY: Vertically related markets and vertical mergers are complex systems that comprise a number of distinct features. The modelling of such complex systems involves several modelling choices that affect the predicted model outcomes. We rely on simulation-based methods to consider how choices of key model parameters, assumptions and industry structures map onto competitive outcomes in vertically related markets and for vertical mergers. Our simulation results can help guide practitioners in selecting models that best characterise the features of a given vertical relationship, especially since assumptions that distinguish the models from one another — how and over what parties bargain — are typically not observed. In particular, this dissertation studies vertically related markets and vertical mergers along three dimensions. Firstly, we focus on comparing alternative models of vertical competition, based on different assumptions regarding the nature and object of vertical contracting. As far as the nature of vertical contracting is concerned, models may assume upstream and downstream firms reaching agreement through take-it-or-leave-it offers, bargaining or recursive bargaining. As far as the object of vertical contracting is concerned, models may assume vertical contracting is over linear prices (a marginal wholesale price) or two-part prices (a marginal wholesale price and a fixed f ee). We systematically compare the corpus of models of vertically related markets across two simple industry structures (‘1 _ 2’, one upstream and two downstream firms; and ‘2_1’, two upstream and one downstream firm) to allow direct comparisons. Our comparisons show that in a linear pricing setting, a modelling choice between bargaining and recursive bargaining is irrelevant to the outcome. In two-part pricing, however, bargaining leads to a more competitive outcome than the joint profit maximising outcome under recursive bargaining. Secondly, we study and compare models for vertical merger analysis, in order to investigate how assumptions regarding vertical contracting map onto observable merger effects. We also examine the extent to which predictions from models of vertical mergers are robust to different specifications of substitutability. In particular, we compare models calibrated to an increasing aggregate elasticity (i.e. the substitutability of the inside goods with the outside good) with models calibrated to the nest strength parameter of the demand function. Our results show that the predicted merger effects from different models are consistent for the two measures of substitutability. The results also illustrate that modelling choices such as the specification of the industry structure or object and nature of vertical contracting that determined outcomes in the pre-merger world, can also predetermine post-merger outcomes. Lastly, we introduce a vertical merger simulator tool to allow an assessment of vertical merger scenarios in practice. We illustrate the utility of the simulator as a screening tool by reference to a number of examples reflecting modelling choices often faced by practitioners. In this regard, we illustrate three examples where the exogenous variables of interest are the marginal cost of the upstream firm and downstream firms, the market shares and the prices of the downstream firms respectively. We compare the simulator to incentive scoring methods (comprising of various upward pricing pressure indices), which have received extensive attention in literature and policy circles as a screening tool for merger effects, including for vertical mergers. While direct comparisons are challenging, it is evident that the data requirements of our vertical merger simulator are not particularly onerous compared to those of incentive scoring indices. The simulator offers the additional benefit of full equilibrium analysis, compared to the partial equilibrium focus of incentive scoring methods. We conclude that the simulator can be a useful complementary tool for vertical merger screening.
Beplanning van die verstedeliking van die Kleurlinggroep in Wes-Kaapland met spesiale verwysing na die Weskus
(Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 1976) Pienaar, W. P; Page, D.; Stellenbosch University. Faculty of Economics and Management Sciences. Department of Economics.
ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Please see full text
Communication as a strategic monetary policy tool : an evaluation of the effectiveness of the South African Reserve Bank's communication
(Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 2011-12) Reid, Monique Brigitte; Du Plessis, Alexander; Stellenbosch University. Faculty of Economic and Management Sciences. Dept. of Economics.
ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The effectiveness of monetary policy depends importantly on the expectations of the private sector, as it is largely through this channel of the transmission mechanism that policy changes are transmitted to long-term interest rates. This has increased the emphasis on the role of central bank communication as a monetary policy tool. Successful communication is essential both to enhance the effectiveness of monetary policy and to build support for the institutional framework within which monetary policy is implemented. While the large and growing literature on central bank communication over the past decade has delivered strong support for the important role of central bank communication, there is less agreement about what the optimal communication strategy is. Furthermore, research has been limited mainly to studies of communication between central banks and the financial markets. In an evaluation of progress in the literature, Blinder et al. (2008) highlight the need to examine the interaction between central banks and the rest of the private sector (the general public) as well. The objective of this PhD dissertation is to evaluate the South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB’s) use of communication as a monetary policy tool. Special focus is given to communication with the inattentive general public, who set prices in the labour market and the market for goods and services. Different aspects of the SARB’s communication were studied, including the consistency of the South African Reserve Bank’s communication, the transmission of this communication via the media to the general public, and the process by which the general public gathers and processes the information on inflation. An evaluation of the SARB’s communications (its original messages) provided some evidence that the SARB has succeeded in communicating consistently over the inflation targeting period. This was followed by an assessment of the role of the media in transmitting the original communications to the general public. The results suggest that South African media reports generally show a lack of critical assessment of monetary policy decisions and that the inter-meeting communication by the SARB is ineffective at influencing these. An important challenge is for the SARB to consider how it can participate more actively in the economic discussion at this level and how it can build productive strategic relationships with the media. The final section of this dissertation explores the process by which the general public forms its inflation expectations, relying on epidemiological models to describe the spread of inflation information and to estimate the speed at which the general public, in aggregate, updates their inflation expectations. This estimate of the speed of adjustment will be valuable to future research that aims to build a Phillips curve in a new way for South Africa. A well-modelled Phillips curve will both improve the monitoring of the impact of monetary policy and inform future policy design and implementation.
Concentration of economic power in the South African manufacturing industry
(Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 1977-12) Du Plessis, Pieter George; Scheurkogel, A. E.; Stellenbosch University. Faculty of Economic and Management Sciences. Dept. of Economics.
ENGLISH SUMMARY : No abstract available.
Conceptual and empirical advances in antitrust market definition with application to South African competition policy
(Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 2011-12) Boshoff, Willem Hendrik; Du Plessis, Stan; Theron, Nicola; Stellenbosch University. Faculty of Economic and Management Sciences. Dept. of Economics.
ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Delineating the relevant product and geographic market is an important first step in competition inquiries, as it permits an assessment of market power and substitutability. Critics often argue that market definition is arbitrary and increasingly unnecessary, as modern econometric models can directly predict the competitive effects of a merger or anti-competitive practice. Yet practical constraints (such as limited data) and legal considerations (such as case law precedence) continue to support a formal definition of the relevant market. Within this context, this dissertation develops three tools to improve market definition: two empirical tools for cases with limited data and one conceptual decision-making tool to elucidate important factors and risks in market definition. The first tool for market definition involves a systematic analysis of consumer characteristics (i.e. the demographic and income profiles of consumers). Consumer characteristics can assist in defining markets as consumers with similar characteristics tend to switch to similar products following a price rise. Econometric models therefore incorporate consumer characteristics data to improve price elasticity estimates. Even though data constraints often prevent the use of econometric models, a systematic analysis of consumer characteristics can still be useful for market definition. Cluster analysis offers a statistical technique to group products on the basis of the similarity of their consumers. characteristics. A recently concluded partial radio station merger in South Africa offers a case study for the use of consumer characteristics in defining markets. The second tool, or set of tools, for defining markets involves using tests for price co-movement. Critics argue that price tests are not appropriate for defining markets, as these tests are based on the law of one price - which tests only for price linkages and not for the ability to raise prices. Price tests, however, are complements for existing market definition tools, rather than substitutes. Critics also argue that price tests suffer from low statistical power in discriminating close and less close substitutes. But these criticisms ignore inter alia the role of price tests as tools for gathering information and the range of price tests with better size and power properties that are available, including new stationarity tests and autoregressive models. A recently concluded investigation in the South African dairy industry offers price data to evaluate the market definition insights of various price tests. The third tool is conceptual in nature and involves a decision rule for defining markets. If market definition is a binary classification problem (a product is either 'in' or 'out' of the market), it faces risks of misclassification (incorrectly including or excluding a product). Analysts can manage these risks using a Bayesian decision rule that balances (1) the weight of evidence in favour of and against substitutability, (2) prior probabilities determined by previous cases and economic research, and (3) the loss function of the decision maker. The market definition approach adopted by the South African Competition Tribunal in the Primedia / Kaya FM merger investigation offers a useful case study to illustrate the implementation of such a rule in practice.
A critical examination of collusion, the pricing behaviour of a multi-product cartel and the cartel enforcement record in South Africa
(Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 2021-03) Muzata, Tapera Gilbert; Boshoff, Willem H.; Stellenbosch University. Faculty of Economic and Management Sciences. Dept. of Economics.
ENGLISH SUMMARY : In this dissertation three research questions relating to collusion and cartel enforcement in South Africa were examined. The first question entailed examining the characteristics of detected cartels, together with the institutional features of selected key South African cartels. The author found that South African cartels incorporated some of the institutional features reported in the literature, including compensation schemes, joint ventures, sub-contracting arrangements, and entry or expansion deterrence strategies. In some selected key cartels, firms participated in collusion at two successive levels of the value chain, giving the cartels greater control over pricing throughout the value chain. Communication and monitoring were found to often involve a mix of various forms, including firm-level mechanisms (notably sales infrastructure) that complemented the centralised communications mechanisms discussed in the literature. To help fully explain collusion under conditions of imperfect information, the theory should account for the complementarities among various forms of communication and monitoring used by cartels. In addition, the author found trade policy to be an inexpensive tool used by some cartels to weaken threats from imports. The second question concerned the pricing dynamics of a cartel involving multi-product firms and where the cartel faces periods of instability, producing distinct collusive phases. Like single product cartels, a multi-product cartel raises prices above competitive levels, but to varying degrees on different products. Cartel overcharges also vary over collusive phases, influenced by the demand and supply conditions in each phase. This suggests that a multi-product cartel maximises profits by imposing overcharges that vary by product and over collusive phases in response to changing market conditions. The assumptions about the nature of the transition between collusion and competition affects overcharge estimates. This dissertation provides arguments that penalties and damages estimates, reflecting overcharges, should consider product-level and phase-specific overcharges, rather than relying on averages. Finally, the dissertation examined the cartel enforcement record from a deterrence perspective, focusing on the drivers of cartel enforcement, the duration of cases from initiation to final decision, and the subsequent impact on the deterrence-effect of penalties. Leniency, settlements and penalties, supported by increased funding for the Competition Commission are considered to be the main drivers of cartel enforcement in South Africa. Contrary to expectation, the author found that these have not reduced the duration of cases. Instead, case duration increased progressively over the study period. Delays in penalising firms have resulted in firms paying significantly discounted penalties, weakening the deterrence effect of penalties. To preserve the deterrence effect of penalties, the author argues that an optimal cartel enforcement policy should account for these delays and should focus on higher present-value penalties for those firms that delay finalising cases. This dissertation, focusing on South Africa, contributes to the body of empirical literature on collusion and cartel enforcement. It provides suggestions for further advances in the theory on collusion under imperfect information and on overcharge estimation when dealing with multi-product and multi-period collusion. The dissertation also makes policy contributions that could enhance the efficacy of cartel enforcement in South Africa and in other jurisdictions.
A demographic history of settler South Africa
(Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 2016-03) Cilliers, Jeanne Alexandra; Fourie, Johan; Mariott, Martine; Stellenbosch University. Faculty of Economic and Management Sciences. Dept. of Economics.
ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Economic incentives affect demographic outcomes. That is to say, fertility, mortality, migration and mobility are a result of economic performance, growth and inequality. While demographic changes may be slow, the long-run effects can be significant. The Western demographic transition of the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries has had a profound effect on the living conditions of people across the world. Instead of having six or more children, most families today have only two, and life expectancy in most Western countries doubled in the four or five decades around the turn of the twentieth century. It is within this broad framework relating to the nature and causes of demographic transitions that this dissertation is orientated. How these demographic changes spread across the globe remains an important question for theoretical and empirical research, with obvious policy implications. It is therefore surprising that so little is known about the demographic history of South Africa, the wealthiest African country during the nineteenth and twentieth centuries and the first to undergo a demographic transition. There is remarkably limited empirical evidence of what living conditions, social interactions and family formation might have been like for the inhabitants of eighteenth, nineteenth and early-twentieth century South Africa. By focusing on the demographic characteristics of European settlers and their descendants in South Africa, this dissertation begins to provide a more comprehensive account of South Africa’s demographic history. The first question addressed in this study investigates the nature and causes of the settler fertility decline. It aims to provide, for the first time, a thorough descriptive account of the changing levels of fertility and explores land constraint as a potential mechanism for the limitation of fertility. To do so, it uses geographic and socio-economic differentials in fertility over time, first, in a simple regression analysis framework and second, in an event-history analysis framework, to allow for a deeper understanding of the possible mechanisms at work at the individual level. The second question addressed in this study relates to the gender composition of offspring as a determinant of future fertility behaviour. While couples in modern societies have been shown to have gender neutral preferences for their offspring, new research on past populations suggests that a preference for sons over daughters might have influenced couples’ fertility decision-making behaviour, and potentially have limited the onset of the fertility decline. An investigation into whether a preference for sons existed in the settler Cape Colony context, through an event-history analysis of birth-spacing behaviour at high parities, conditional on the couple’s existing offspring gender-mix, informs the debate on within-marriage birth control practices in history, as well as the effect of economic development on couples’ fertility behaviour. Finally, in societies with a large rural majority and a small group of elites, the prospects for social mobility are said to be limited. However, the liberal theory of industrialism suggests that social mobility will likely increase as a result of the process of industrialisation itself, as new occupations replace those held by members of previous generations. Industrialisation is also expected to result in a shift away from ascription by birth towards achievement-based mobility. The third question addressed in this study investigates whether social (occupational) mobility increased under late nineteenth and early twentieth-century South African industrialism and whether or not this translated into real improvements in settler living standards.
Early effects and legacies of Cape Colony legislation on black disenfranchisement, education and migration
(Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 2021-03) Nyika, Farai Donald; Fourie, Johan; Shepherd, Debra; Stellenbosch University. Faculty of Economic and Management Sciences. Dept. of Economics.
ENGLISH SUMMARY : Cape Colony adopted a universal male franchise in 1853, which was subject to income and property qualifications. This decision created tensions amongst the white settler community. After several annexations of black territories had enlarged the Cape Parliament’s sphere of control, black people were deemed a political threat and could eventually rule the Cape Colony as they far outnumbered white people. The Cape Parliament subsequently passed laws that aimed to disenfranchise black voters, restructure local government and segregate black people in the Transkei and drove them into migrant labour. In this dissertation, I analysed the impact of two legislative Acts that were aimed at curtailing black suffrage, (1887 Cape Parliamentary Registration Act and the 1892 Franchise and Ballot Act) on the number of voter registrations. I used the transcribed and digitised Cape Colony voters’ rolls to question the accuracy of claims made by several writers about the numbers of black people who lost the right to vote. I found that the number of black people removed from the rolls to be much smaller that is claimed by the literature. I also studied the impact of the 1894 Glen Grey Act was passed to restructure black local government by creating black administered District Councils. I studied the impact of District Councils on black education in the Transkei and showed that black primary school attendance and enrolment rose faster in districts that established Councils than in districts that did not. Finally, as the Glen Grey Act contributed to the phenomenon of migrant labour from the Transkei, I studied the long-run consequences of the legislation. I did this by examining the relationship between internal migration and non-migrant primary and secondary completion in four South African provinces a century after the introduction of the legislation. I found some evidence of long-run persistence. This dissertation makes new contributions to the literature on South African political and economic history, colonial and present-day education.
The econometrics of discrete structural change and its applications in models of price overcharge
(Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 2021-03) Van Jaarsveld, Rossouw; Boshoff, Willem H.; Stellenbosch University. Faculty of Economic and Management Sciences. Dept. of Economics.
ENGLISH SUMMARY : This dissertation studies unexplored time series issues related to tests of structural change and the modelling thereof. The practical application is centred around the estimation of price effects in collusive markets. The results, however, is more generally relevant, since structural change is inherent in many economic relationships. The dissertation is organized into three main chapters. The first part deals with the dating of structural breaks, i.e. determining the dates of structural breaks. The second part deals with the impact of non-stationarity when modelling structural changes. The third part deals with a practical application and provides guidance for practitioners. In cases where the date of the structural change is unknown, two econometric approaches can be followed. One method, is to apply a regime-switching or time varying-parameter model. The second approach is to use structural break tests to determine the break dates, and subsequently construct a dummy variable to control for the breaks in a regression model. In the first part, we investigate how various structural break tests can translate into parameter bias. The results are contrasted to regime-switching and time varying-parameter models to better understand the conditions under which these two approaches can be used interchangeably. Given that structural change may take various forms, we investigate the comparative performance of multiple techniques on different forms of structural change. Specically, we evaluate various forms of changes in the mean of the data generating process. To assess the performance of these methods, we rely on simulation evidence. Related, we also discuss complications of numerical optimization techniques and regime-switching models in simulation studies. The results are discussed in the framework of overcharge, where parameter estimates play a central role in the punishment of cartels. The second part deals with the impact of nonstationarity on dummy variable coecients. This part provides evidence for the conditions under which the distribution of the dummy variable parameter will differ significantly from the t-distribution. This is important since time series models are used in civil litigations by plaintiffs who are required to prove that the cartel had a significant impact on prices. Congruent with the first part, we illustrate how incorrect conclusions can be reached when the dummy variable is misspecified and t-statistic are used to draw inference. In other words, when the break dates are misdated and the nonstationary nature of the data caused the distribution of the dummy variable parameter to differ from the t-distribution. Related, we show how cointegration tests are influenced when the break dates are misspecified. We provide a discussion of the extent to which error correction modelling can be used to address some of these issues and emphasize specification problems that are specific to the estimation of overcharge. To demonstrate the practical insights of the simulation studies in the first and second part, I apply the various techniques to a European competition case. This part also provides guidance for practitioners.
Economic aspects of scientific research in South Africa
(Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 1970-03) Van Wyk, Rias Johann; Sadie, J. L.; Stellenbosch University. Faculty of Economic and Management Sciences. Dept. of Economics.
ENGLISH ABSTRACT: see item for full text AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: sien item vir volteks.
The economic demography of South Africa
(Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 2000) Sadie, J. L. (Johannes L.), 1918-; McCarthy, C. L.; Smit, B. W.; Stellenbosch University. Faculty of Economic and Management Sciences. Dept. of Economics.
ENGLISH ABSTRACT: It is remarkable that population, which is at the centre of the economic problem - the Wealth if not the Poverty of Nations - has received scant attention in economic research in South Africa. Which is probably why we can have a NEW - so designated in the Draft Report - population policy propounded by government (in 1997) which manifests little appreciation of the economics of population. This dissertation is an attempt to demonstrate why the void should be filled and to bring to light specific topics within the broader subject matter that could be fruitfully researched. The demographic scene in South Africa lends itself to a telling demonstration of the economic effects of population movements by way of contrasting the experience of the high fertility, youthful Black population - with a total fertility rate of around 37 after having been 6,75 in the 1950s - and that of the demographically older non-Blacks, among whom the Whites exhibit a fertility level way below the replacement rate of 2,1, while that of the Asians (Indians) and Coloureds has almost reached that rate. Since the former has a share of more than a dominant three-quarters in the aggregate South African population, the emphasis is inevitably on the economic consequences of rapid population growth and its attendant demographic magnitudes: fertility, mortality, migration, age and sex composition, spatial distribution and, what is called "economic quality" of the population as manifested in its supply of enterprise. The analysis is presented in the traditional supply and demand paradigm. Supply is examined by linking demographic forces to the five factors of production whose co-operation is responsible for the generation of the national product: entrepreneurship, (ordinary) labour, natural resources, technology and capital. The population has to generate an adequate supply of entrepreneurs, and the two human factors of production have to have one or more of the non-human factors at their disposal to accommodate the population economically. Proliferating human numbers can be destructive of natural resources, and in conflict with the formation of capital, the accumulation of technology and their potential economic welfare-enhancing operation. The demand aspects are analysed by linking on to the four macro demand components in the national accounts system: Household consumption, Government consumption, Investment (visa- vis saving) and foreign trade. Some of the issues discussed are: the stability deriving from a population elasticity of demand close to 1,0; the comparative significance of the population versus the affluence factor; the role of high fertility in the acquisition, at the election polls, of economic power via political power, and its consequences for the diversion of demand; the capital absorbed in "demographic investments"; and the significance of the South African factor endowment for its foreign trade. From the above analyses conclusions could be drawn about econormc growth, poverty, unemployment and the economic value of a life. In human populations, in sub-Saharan Africa at least, quantity is the adversary of quality.
An economic examination of non-profit accountability to client-communities in South Africa
(Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 2019-12) Dineo, Shirley Seabe; Burger, Ronelle; Jegers, Marc; Stellenbosch University. Faculty of Economic and Management Sciences. Dept. of Economics.
ENGLISH SUMMARY : The target of non-profit organisation (NPO) accountability is efficacy in achieving the mission, the efficiency with resource use, risk-minimising and guarding against corruption (Mook, 2012). However, for a long time, the focus has been on efficient use of money and policing maleficence. The emphasis on functional accountability has created a narrow view off accountability as answering to donors at the expense of being accountable to the people they serve (Gent, Crescenzi, Menning & Reid, 2013; Mook, 2010: Murtaza, 2012). There has however been a shift inspired by normative ideas about the NPOs’ responsibility to their clients beyond “a moral responsibility to provide services that reflect their true needs” (Guo, 2007, p. 459). Despite this shift and the arguments for greater accountability to NPO clients, we still know very little about the role of client-communities as principals of NPOs. These principals have even received limited treatment in the theoretical economics literature (Jegers, 2015). This study, therefore, provides an economic investigation of the NPOs’ accountability to client-communities using South Africa as a case study. Its first applies spatial econometric techniques to test the hypothesis that if NPOs are responsive to the needs of the people, a correlation between NPO density and need should be evident. The study then draws from principal-agent theory and the rights-based approach to formulate a framework and construct propositions that can guide research on NPO accountability to client-communities. This research test three of the propositions: two related to the leadership characteristics correlated with greater accountability to these stakeholders and the other to the implications of greater NPO accountability for community satisfaction with the NPO’s operations. The findings showed that NPOs are geographically concentrated due to agglomeration benefits from knowledge and skills, as well as the availability of private philanthropic resources, but have broad geographic reach in terms of meeting the needs of communities. The organisations are also accountable to communities, which translated to favourable evaluations by community members. However, the findings showed that NPOs are more likely to be responsive if altruistic leaders with more education and experience control the organisations. Furthermore, revenue, location and organisational type are significant conditions for community accountability and the mediators of its relationship with community satisfaction. Overall, the findings lead to the conclusion that NPOs in South Africa, especially small community-based organisations are accountable to client-communities. Nonetheless, we identified several limitations which could be addressed by future research.
The economic impact of the Khoe on the north-eastern frontier of the Cape Colony
(2021-12) Links, Calumet; Fourie, Johan; Von Fintel, Dieter; Green, Erik; Stellenbosch University. Faculty of Economic and Management Sciences. Dept. of Economics.
ENGLISH SUMMARY : The role played by the Khoe in early Cape colonial economy remains largely unaccounted for in Economic History. The two exceptions are Fourie and Green’s The missing people: accounting for the productivity of indigenous populations in Cape Colonial History (2015) and La Croix’s The Khoikhoi population, 1652-1780: a review of the evidence and two new estimates (2018). This omission is significant since the Khoe formed the cornerstone of the Cape frontier pastoral economy. This thesis investigates the role Khoe labourers, both coerced and free, played in shaping the nort-heastern economy of the Cape Colony in the period 1787-1828. I also illuminate the devastating impact that frontier closure had on Khoe society. The study starts by investigating the substitutability of slave labour. Chapter One questions the substitutability of slave labour through a longitudinal study of the Graaff-Reinet district, located on the eastern frontier of the colony. I calculate the Hicksian elasticity of complementarity coefficients for each year of a 22-year combination of cross-sectional tax data sets (1805–1828) in order to test whether slave labour was substitutable for other forms of labour. I find that slave labour, indigenous labour, and settler family labour were not substitutable over this period, which lends credence to the finding that slave and family labour were two different inputs in agricultural production. I argue that the non-substitutability of slave labour was largely a result of the settlers’ need to obtain labourers with location-specific skills such as the Khoe, and that slaves may have served a purpose other than being a source of unskilled labour - such as providing artisan skills or acting as collateral. In Chapter Two I investigate the relationship between coercion and productivity in this pastoral setting. I find a positive relationship between loosening coercion and effort, and argue that as legislative protection against the mistreatment of the Khoe was promulgated into law, Khoe labourers decreased their levels of effort. This finding leads me to conclude that even in pastoralism, where effort is hard to observe and quantify, less coercion leads to decreased levels of effort. Chapter Three investigates the general theoretical argument that women historically broke free of traditional gender roles as a result of the fact that they held an advantage over men in animal husbandry. Working Khoe women on the north-eastern frontier of the Cape Colony present the perfect subjects to test this claim. Both Graaff-Reinet and Tulbagh districts were major meat and crop producers for the colonial centre at Cape Town, and relied heavily on indentured Khoe female labour. By using a pooled Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression I find that the presence of indigenous Khoe women on farms had no significant positive effect on sheep and cattle holdings for either of the two districts above that of Khoe men. As a consequence, I argue that Khoe women’s actual competitive advantage lay in home-based production. In the fourth and last chapter, I argue for the importance of incorporating family structure in inequality estimations. This is particularly important for inequality studies in Africa. When calculating the various inequality metrics, contemporary studies, regardless of the setting or context, assume either a conventional western household, or that resources are simply divided on a per capita basis. This study argues that kinship networks matter for the study of inequality in African societies. Households in economic distress often join those of relatives or other kin in order to mitigate the impact of extreme poverty. When studying the level of wealth inequality among the Khoe of Swellendam district in 1825, it is clear that frontier closure impoverished a significant portion of this community which, in order to reduce the impact of destitution, made use of extended kinship networks.
An economic perspective on school leadership and teachers' unions in South Africa
(Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 2016-03) Wills, Gabrielle; Van der Berg, Servaas; Stellenbosch University. Faculty of Economic and Management Sciences. Dept. of Economics.
ENGLISH ABSTRACT: This dissertation considers two factors that are considered critical to disrupting an existing culture of inefficiency in the production of learning in South Africa, namely school leadership and teachers’ unions. This first part of the dissertation positions itself within a growing discourse in the economics literature, and in local policy circles, on the importance of harnessing the role of school principals as a route to educational progress. Using a unique dataset constructed by matching administrative datasets in education, the study aims to provide greater specificity to our understanding of the labour market for school principals in South Africa. Chapter two constructs a quantitative profile of this market with implications for policy reforms in raising the calibre of school leadership. It identifies existing inequalities in the distribution of qualified and experienced principals across poorer and wealthier schools, gender disparities in principal positions, low levels of principal mobility across the public education system and high tenure. Together, the evidence points to the need for policies aimed at improving the initial match of principals to schools while developing incumbent principals over their length of tenure. The findings highlight that improving the design and implementation of policies guiding the appointment process for principals is a matter of urgency. A substantial and increasing number of principal retirements are taking place across South African schools given a rising age profile of school principals. Selection criteria need to be amended to identify relevant expertise and skills, rather than relying on principal credentials as captured in payroll data which are shown to be poor signals of principal quality. While the rising number of principal retirements presents an opportunity to replace weaker principals with better performing ones, this will be accompanied by various challenges including recruiting, selecting and hiring suitable candidates. Moreover, it takes time for school principals to have their full effect on school environments and initially, school performance may decline in response to a leadership succession. Using a fixed effects estimation approach, chapter three suggests that principal changes are indeed initially detrimental to school performance, especially in poorer schools. These results are robust to using an alternative estimation strategy following the work of Heckman, Ichimura and Todd (1997) to control for additional sources of estimation bias. The chapter also considers two mechanisms through which school leadership changes may impact on school performance, namely through rising promotion rates and teacher turnover. After the discussion on school leadership, chapter four shifts its focus to measure teacher union impacts on educational outcomes by investigating a disruption hypothesis that student learning is lost as a direct consequence of teacher participation in strike action, particularly the intensive public sector strike of 2007. The study exploits heterogeneity that exists within schools in the level of teacher union militancy to control for confounding factors that may bias estimates of strike effects. An across-subject within-student analysis, following an approach by Kingdon and Teal (2010), suggests that teacher strike participation negatively affects learning for students in the poorest three quarters of schools in South Africa. However, the discussion reveals difficulties in isolating out, specifically, unobserved teacher characteristics that may bias the observed strike effect. There is suggestive evidence that the most marginalised students in rural areas, and those that are weaker academically, are most at risk of learning losses as a result of teacher strikes. In this respect, industrial action has implications for widening existing inequalities in student achievement across the South African education system.
Education and country growth models
(Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 2014-04) Gustafsson, Martin Anders; Van der Berg, Servaas; Stellenbosch University. Faculty of Economic and Management Sciences. Dept. of Economics.
ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The over-arching concern of the three parts of the dissertation is how economics can and should influence education policymaking, the emphasis on the economics side being models of country development and the contribution made by human capital. Part I begins with a review of economic growth theory. How educational performance and country development have been measured is then discussed, with considerable attention going towards conceptual and measurement complexities associated with the latter. An approach is presented for expanding the number of countries whose educational quality can be compared, by expanding the number of linkable testing programmes. This approach, which above all allows for the inclusion of more African and Latin American countries, is one of the key contributions made by the dissertation to the existing body of knowledge. Three existing empirical growth models are examined, including work by Hanushek and Woessman on the relationship between educational quality and income. Part I ends with a discussion on how the economics literature can best be packaged to influence education policymaking. A ‘growth simulator’ tool in Excel for informing the policy discourse is presented. The production of this tool includes establishing empirically a feasible improvement trajectory for educational quality that policymakers can use and some analysis of how linguistic fractionalisation in a country evolves over time. This tool can be considered a further key output of the dissertation. A basic model for relating educational quality, via income growth, to teacher pay, is presented. Part II offers an analysis of UNESCO country-level data on enrolment and spending going back to 1970, with a view to establishing historical patterns that can inform education planners, particularly those in developing countries, on how budgets and enrolment expansion should be distributed across the levels of the education system. The analysis presented in Part II represents a novel way of using existing countrylevel data and can be seen as an important step towards filling a gap experienced by education policymakers, namely the paucity of empirical evidence that can guide decisions around the prioritisation of education levels. Part II moreover arrives at a few empirical findings, including the finding that enrolment and spending patterns have been systematically different in countries with faster economic growth and the finding that historical per student spending at the secondary level appears to play a larger role in development than was previously thought. Part III contrasts the available economic advice for education policymakers with what policymakers actually appear to believe in. The focus falls, in particular, on four developing countries: South Africa, Brazil, Chile and China. A few areas where economists could explore the data to a greater degree or communicate available findings differently, in the interests of better education policies, are identified. Part III partly serves as a demonstration of how comparisons between education systems can be better oriented towards providing advice to education policymakers on questions relating to efficiency and equity.

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