Browsing by Author "Lefutso, David"

Now showing 1 - 1 of 1
  • Thumbnail Image
    Item
    Wicked problems? Israel’s discovery of oil and gas
    (Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 2012-12) Lefutso, David; Roux, Andre; Stellenbosch University. Faculty of Economic and Management Sciences. University of Stellenbosch Business School. Institute for Futures Research.
    ENGLISH SUMMARY: The research thesis seeks to determine whether Israel’s discovery of oil and gas poses a wicked problem and, if so, what options could provide desirable and preferable alternative futures. The use of futures concepts such as (1) trends analysis, (2) causal layered analysis and (3) scenario development enables the researcher to analyse and synthesise the problem and suggest possible solutions. The mapping of key drivers of change reveals that there are at least 16 trends that prevail in the Levant Basin Province and that Israel must take them into consideration for the sake of its continued existence among the community of nations. A causal layered analysis is performed to obtain a deeper and better understanding of the conflict so as to enable the sketching of the three narratives. The latter seeks to portray alternative futures that the Israelis and Palestinians could embrace. The use of general morphological analysis allows for the development of the Poseidon scenario, which provides (1) a framework for the resolution of the maritime borders of all the countries of the Levant Basin Province and (2) the ‘buying’ of peace through the sharing of revenue, oil and gas resources in the Levant Basin Province.