Browsing by Author "Kuhn, Ingolf"

Now showing 1 - 12 of 12
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    Drivers of future alien species impacts: an expert-based assessment
    (Wiley, 2020) Essl, Franz; Lenzner, Bernd; Bacher, Sven; Bailey, Sarah; Hui, Cang; Kuhn, Ingolf; Pysek, Petr; Richardson, David M.
    Understanding the likely future impacts of biological invasions is crucial yet highly challenging given the multiple relevant environmental, socio-economic and societal contexts and drivers. In the absence of quantitative models, methods based on expert knowledge are the best option for assessing future invasion trajectories. Here, we present an expert assessment of the drivers of potential alien species impacts under contrasting scenarios and socioecological contexts through the mid-21st century. Based on responses from 36 experts in biological invasions, moderate (20%–30%) increases in invasions, compared to the current conditions, are expected to cause major impacts on biodiversity in most socioecological contexts. Three main drivers of biological invasions—transport, climate change and socio-economic change—were predicted to significantly affect future impacts of alien species on biodiversity even under a best-case scenario. Other drivers (e.g. human demography and migration in tropical and subtropical regions) were also of high importance in specific global contexts (e.g. for individual taxonomic groups or biomes). We show that some best-case scenarios can substantially reduce potential future impacts of biological invasions. However, rapid and comprehensive actions are necessary to use this potential and achieve the goals of the Post-2020 Framework of the Convention on Biological Diversity.
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    The evolution of critical thermal limits of life on earth
    (Nature, 2021-02-19) Bennett, Joanne M.; Sunday, Jennifer; Calosi, Piero; Villalobos, Fabricio; Martinez, Brezo; Molina-Venegas, Rafae; Araujo, Miguel B.; Algar, Adam C.; Clusella-Trullas, Susana; Hawkins, Bradford A.; Keith, Sally A.; Kuhn, Ingolf; Rahbek, Carsten; Rodriguez, Laura; Singer, Alexander; Morales-Castilla, Ignacio; Olalla-Tarraga, Miguel Angel
    Understanding how species’ thermal limits have evolved across the tree of life is central to predicting species’ responses to climate change. Here, using experimentally-derived estimates of thermal tolerance limits for over 2000 terrestrial and aquatic species, we show that most of the variation in thermal tolerance can be attributed to a combination of adaptation to current climatic extremes, and the existence of evolutionary ‘attractors’ that reflect either boundaries or optima in thermal tolerance limits. Our results also reveal deep-time climate legacies in ectotherms, whereby orders that originated in cold paleoclimates have presently lower cold tolerance limits than those with warm thermal ancestry. Conversely, heat tolerance appears unrelated to climate ancestry. Cold tolerance has evolved more quickly than heat tolerance in endotherms and ectotherms. If the past tempo of evolution for upper thermal limits continues, adaptive responses in thermal limits will have limited potential to rescue the large majority of species given the unprecedented rate of contemporary climate change.
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    Framework and guidelines for implementing the proposed IUCN Environmental Impact Classification for Alien Taxa (EICAT)
    (Wiley, 2015) Hawkins, Charlotte L.; Bacher, Sven; Essl, Franz; Hulme, Philip E.; Jeschke, Jonathan M.; Kuhn, Ingolf; Kumschick, Sabrina; Nentwig, Wolfgang; Pergl, Jan; Pysek, Petr; Rabitsch, Wolfgang; Richardson, David M.; Vila, Montserrat; Wilson, John R. U.; Genovesi, Piero; Blackburn, Tim M.
    Recently, Blackburn et al. (2014) developed a simple, objective and transparent method for classifying alien taxa in terms of the magnitude of their detrimental environmental impacts in recipient areas. Here, we present a comprehensive framework and guidelines for implementing this method, which we term the Environmental Impact Classification for Alien Taxa, or EICAT. We detail criteria for applying the EICAT scheme in a consistent and comparable fashion, prescribe the supporting information that should be supplied along with classifications, and describe the process for implementing the method. This comment aims to draw the attention of interested parties to the framework and guidelines, and to present them in their entirety in a location where they are freely accessible to any potential users.
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    GlobTherm, a global database on thermal tolerances for aquatic and terrestrial organisms
    (Nature Research, 2018-03-13) Bennett, Joanne M.; Calosi, Piero; Clusella-Trullas, Susana; Martinez, Brezo; Sunday, Jennifer; Algar, Adam C.; Araujo, Miguel B.; Hawkins, Bradford A.; Keith, Sally; Kuhn, Ingolf; Rahbek, Carsten; Rodriguez, Laura; Singer, Alexander; Villalobos, Fabricio; Olalla-Tarraga, Miguel Angel; Morales-Castilla, Ignacio
    How climate affects species distributions is a longstanding question receiving renewed interest owing to the need to predict the impacts of global warming on biodiversity. Is climate change forcing species to live near their critical thermal limits? Are these limits likely to change through natural selection? These and other important questions can be addressed with models relating geographical distributions of species with climate data, but inferences made with these models are highly contingent on non-climatic factors such as biotic interactions. Improved understanding of climate change effects on species will require extensive analysis of thermal physiological traits, but such data are both scarce and scattered. To overcome current limitations, we created the GlobTherm database. The database contains experimentally derived species’ thermal tolerance data currently comprising over 2,000 species of terrestrial, freshwater, intertidal and marine multicellular algae, plants, fungi, and animals. The GlobTherm database will be maintained and curated by iDiv with the aim to keep expanding it, and enable further investigations on the effects of climate on the distribution of life on Earth.
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    MAcroecological Framework for Invasive Aliens (MAFIA) : disentangling large-scale context dependence in biological invasions
    (2020) Pysek, Petr; Bacher, Sven; Kuhn, Ingolf; Novoa, Ana; Catford, Jane A.; Hulme, Philip E.; Pergl, Jan; Richardson, David M.; Wilson, John R. U.; Blackburn, Tim M.
    Macroecology is the study of patterns, and the processes that determine those patterns, in the distribution and abundance of organisms at large scales, whether they be spatial (from hundreds of kilometres to global), temporal (from decades to centuries), and organismal (numbers of species or higher taxa). In the context of invasion ecology, macroecological studies include, for example, analyses of the richness, diversity, distribution, and abundance of alien species in regional floras and faunas, spatio-temporal dynamics of alien species across regions, and cross-taxonomic analyses of species traits among comparable native and alien species pools. However, macroecological studies aiming to explain and predict plant and animal naturalisations and invasions, and the resulting impacts, have, to date, rarely considered the joint effects of species traits, environment, and socioeconomic characteristics. To address this, we present the MAcroecological Framework for Invasive Aliens (MAFIA). The MAFIA explains the invasion phenomenon using three interacting classes of factors – alien species traits, location characteristics, and factors related to introduction events – and explicitly maps these interactions onto the invasion sequence from transport to naturalisation to invasion. The framework therefore helps both to identify how anthropogenic effects interact with species traits and environmental characteristics to determine observed patterns in alien distribution, abundance, and richness; and to clarify why neglecting anthropogenic effects can generate spurious conclusions. Event-related factors include propagule pressure, colonisation pressure, and residence time that are important for mediating the outcome of invasion processes. However, because of context dependence, they can bias analyses, for example those that seek to elucidate the role of alien species traits. In the same vein, failure to recognise and explicitly incorporate interactions among the main factors impedes our understanding of which macroecological invasion patterns are shaped by the environment, and of the importance of interactions between the species and their environment. The MAFIA is based largely on insights from studies of plants and birds, but we believe it can be applied to all taxa, and hope that it will stimulate comparative research on other groups and environments. By making the biases in macroecological analyses of biological invasions explicit, the MAFIA offers an opportunity to guide assessments of the context dependence of invasions at broad geographical scales.
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    Open minded and open access : introducing NeoBiota, a new peer-reviewed journal of biological invasions
    (Pensoft, 2011) Kuhn, Ingolf; Kowarik, Ingo; Kollmann, Johannes; Starfinger, Uwe; Bacher, Sven; Blackburn, Tim M.; Bustamante, Ramiro O.; Celesti-Grapow, Laura; Chytry, Milan; Colautti, Robert I.; Essl, Franz; Foxcroft, Llewellyn C.; Garcia-Berthou, Emili; Gollasch, Stephan; Hierro, Jose; Hufbauer, Ruth A.; Hulme, Philip E.; Jarosik, Vojtech; Jeschke, Jonathan M.; Karrer, Gerhard; Mack, Richard N.; Molofsky, Jane; Murray, Brad R.; Nentwig, Wolfgang; Osborne, Bruce; Pysek, Petr; Rabitsch, Wolfgang; Rejmanek, Marcel; Roques, Alain; Shaw, Richard; Sol, Daniel; Van Kleunen, Mark; Vila, Montserrat; Von der Lippe, Moritz; Wolfe, Lorne M.; Penev, Lyubomir
    The Editorial presents the focus, scope, policies, and the inaugural issue of NeoBiota, a new open access peer-reviewed journal of biological invasions. The new journal NeoBiota is a continuation of the former NEOBIOTA publication series. The journal will deal with all aspects of invasion biology and impose no restrictions on manuscript size neither on use of color. NeoBiota implies an XML-based editorial workflow and several cutting-edge innovations in publishing and dissemination, such as semantic markup of and enhancements to published texts, data publication, and extensive cross-linking within the journal and to external sources.
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    Origin of climatic data can determine the transferability of species distribution models
    (Pensoft, 2020) Datta, Arunava; Schweiger, Oliver; Kuhn, Ingolf
    Methodological research on species distribution modelling (SDM) has so far largely focused on the choice of appropriate modelling algorithms and variable selection approaches, but the consequences of choosing amongst different sources of environmental data has scarcely been investigated. Bioclimatic variables are commonly used as predictors in SDMs. Currently, several online databases offer the same sets of bioclimatic variables, but they differ in underlying source of raw data and method of data processing (extrapolation and downscaling). In this paper, we asked whether predictive performance and spatial transferability of SDMs are affected by the choice of two different bioclimatic databases viz. WorldClim 2 and Chelsa 1.2. We used presence-absence data of the invasive plant Ageratina adenophora from the Western Himalaya for training SDMs and a set of independently-collected presence-only datasets from the Central and Eastern Himalaya to evaluate the transferability of the SDMs beyond the training range. We found that the performance of SDMs was, to a large degree, affected by the choice of the climatic dataset. Models calibrated on Chelsa 1.2 outperformed WorldClim 2 in terms of internal evaluation on the calibration dataset. However, when the model was transferred beyond the calibration range to the Central and Eastern Himalaya, models based on WorldClim 2 performed substantially better. We recommend that, in addition to the choice of predictor variables, the choice of predictor datasets with these variables should not be based merely on subjective decision whenever several options are available. Instead, such decisions should be based on robust evaluation of the most appropriate dataset for a given geographic region and species being modelled. Moreover, decisions could also depend on the objective of the study, i.e. projecting within the calibration range or beyond. Therefore, a quantitative evaluation of predictor datasets from alternative sources should be routinely performed as an integral part of the modelling procedure.
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    Projecting the continental accumulation of alien species through to 2050
    (John Wiley & Sons, 2020) Seebens, Hanno; Bacher, Sven; Blackburn, Tim M.; Capinha, Cesar; Dawson, Wayne; Dullinger, Stefan; Genovesi, Piero; Hulme, Philip E.; Van Kleunen, Mark; Kuhn, Ingolf; Jeschke, Jonathan M.; Lenzner, Bernd; Liebhold, Andrew M.; Pattison, Zarah; Pergl, Jan; Pysek, Petr; Winter, Marten; Essl, Franz
    Biological invasions have steadily increased over recent centuries. However, we still lack a clear expectation about future trends in alien species numbers. In particular, we do not know whether alien species will continue to accumulate in regional floras and faunas, or whether the pace of accumulation will decrease due to the depletion of native source pools. Here, we apply a new model to simulate future numbers of alien species based on estimated sizes of source pools and dynamics of historical invasions, assuming a continuation of processes in the future as observed in the past (a business‐as‐usual scenario). We first validated performance of different model versions by conducting a back‐casting approach, therefore fitting the model to alien species numbers until 1950 and validating predictions on trends from 1950 to 2005. In a second step, we selected the best performing model that provided the most robust predictions to project trajectories of alien species numbers until 2050. Altogether, this resulted in 3,790 stochastic simulation runs for 38 taxon–continent combinations. We provide the first quantitative projections of future trajectories of alien species numbers for seven major taxonomic groups in eight continents, accounting for variation in sampling intensity and uncertainty in projections. Overall, established alien species numbers per continent were predicted to increase from 2005 to 2050 by 36%. Particularly, strong increases were projected for Europe in absolute (+2,543 ± 237 alien species) and relative terms, followed by Temperate Asia (+1,597 ± 197), Northern America (1,484 ± 74) and Southern America (1,391 ± 258). Among individual taxonomic groups, especially strong increases were projected for invertebrates globally. Declining (but still positive) rates were projected only for Australasia. Our projections provide a first baseline for the assessment of future developments of biological invasions, which will help to inform policies to contain the spread of alien species.
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    Troubling travellers : are ecologically harmful alien species associated with particular introduction pathways?
    (Pensoft Publishers, 2017) Pergl, Jan; Pysek, Petr; Bacher, Sven; Essl, Franz; Genovesi, Piero; Harrower, Colin A.; Hulme, Philip E.; Jeschke, Jonathan M.; Kenis, Marc; Kuhn, Ingolf; Perglova, Irena; Rabitsch, Wolfgang; Roques, Alain; Roy, David B.; Roy, Helen E.; Vila, Montserrat; Winter, Marten; Nentwig, Wolfgang
    Prioritization of introduction pathways is seen as an important component of the management of biological invasions. We address whether established alien plants, mammals, freshwater fish and terrestrial invertebrates with known ecological impacts are associated with particular introduction pathways (release, escape, contaminant, stowaway, corridor and unaided). We used the information from the European alien species database DAISIE (www.europe-aliens.org) supplemented by the EASIN catalogue (European Alien Species Information Network), and expert knowledge. Plants introduced by the pathways release, corridor and unaided were disproportionately more likely to have ecological impacts than those introduced as contaminants. In contrast, impacts were not associated with particular introduction pathways for invertebrates, mammals or fish. Thus, while for plants management strategies should be targeted towards the appropriate pathways, for animals, management should focus on reducing the total number of taxa introduced, targeting those pathways responsible for high numbers of introductions. However, regardless of taxonomic group, having multiple introduction pathways increases the likelihood of the species having an ecological impact. This may simply reflect that species introduced by multiple pathways have high propagule pressure and so have a high probability of establishment. Clearly, patterns of invasion are determined by many interacting factors and management strategies should reflect this complexity.
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    A unified classification of alien species based on the magnitude of their environmental impacts
    (PLoS, 2014) Blackburn, Tim M.; Essl, Franz; Evans, Thomas; Hulme, Philip E.; Jeschke, Jonathan M.; Kuhn, Ingolf; Kumschick, Sabrina; Markova, Zuzana; Mrugala, Agata; Nentwig, Wolfgang; Pergl, Jan; Pysek, Petr; Rabitsch, Wolfgang; Ricciardi, Anthony; Richardson, David M.; Sendek, Agnieszka; Vila, Montserrat; Wilson, John R. U.; Winter, Marten; Genovesi, Piero; Bacher, Sven
    Species moved by human activities beyond the limits of their native geographic ranges into areas in which they do not naturally occur (termed aliens) can cause a broad range of significant changes to recipient ecosystems; however, their impacts vary greatly across species and the ecosystems into which they are introduced. There is therefore a critical need for a standardised method to evaluate, compare, and eventually predict the magnitudes of these different impacts. Here, we propose a straightforward system for classifying alien species according to the magnitude of their environmental impacts, based on the mechanisms of impact used to code species in the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Global Invasive Species Database, which are presented here for the first time. The classification system uses five semi-quantitative scenarios describing impacts under each mechanism to assign species to different levels of impact—ranging from Minimal to Massive—with assignment corresponding to the highest level of deleterious impact associated with any of the mechanisms. The scheme also includes categories for species that are Not Evaluated, have No Alien Population, or are Data Deficient, and a method for assigning uncertainty to all the classifications. We show how this classification system is applicable at different levels of ecological complexity and different spatial and temporal scales, and embraces existing impact metrics. In fact, the scheme is analogous to the already widely adopted and accepted Red List approach to categorising extinction risk, and so could conceivably be readily integrated with existing practices and policies in many regions.
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    A unified classification on alien species based on the magnitude of their environmental impacts
    (Public Library of Science, 2014-05-06) Blackburn, Tim M.; Essl, Franz; Evans, Thomas; Hulme, Philip E.; Jeschke, Jonathan M.; Kuhn, Ingolf; Kumschick, Sabrina; Markova, Zuzana; Mrugala, Agata; Nentwig, Wolfgang; Pergl, Jan; Pysek, Petr; Rabitsch, Wolfgang; Ricciardi, Anthony; Richardson, David M.; Sendek, Agnieszka; Vila, Montserrat; Wilson, John R. U.; Winter, Marten; Genovesi, Piero; Bacher, Sven
    Species moved by human activities beyond the limits of their native geographic ranges into areas in which they do not naturally occur (termed aliens) can cause a broad range of significant changes to recipient ecosystems; however, their impacts vary greatly across species and the ecosystems into which they are introduced. There is therefore a critical need for a standardised method to evaluate, compare, and eventually predict the magnitudes of these different impacts. Here, we propose a straightforward system for classifying alien species according to themagnitude of their environmental impacts, based on the mechanisms of impact used to code species in the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Global Invasive Species Database, which are presented here for the first time. The classification system uses five semi-quantitative scenarios describing impacts under each mechanism to assign species to different levels of impact— ranging from Minimal to Massive—with assignment corresponding to the highest level of deleterious impact associated with any of the mechanisms. The scheme also includes categories for species that are Not Evaluated, have No Alien Population, or are Data Deficient, and a method for assigning uncertainty to all the classifications.We show how this classification system is applicable at different levels of ecological complexity and different spatial and temporal scales, and embraces existing impact metrics. In fact, the scheme is analogous to the already widely adopted and accepted Red List approach to categorising extinction risk, and so could conceivably be readily integrated with existing practices and policies in many regions.
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    A workflow for standardising and integrating alien species distribution data
    (Pensoft, 2020) Seebens, Hanno; Clarke, David A.; Groom, Quentin; Wilson, John R. U.; Garcia-Berthou, Emili; Kuhn, Ingolf; Roige, Mariona; Pagad, Shyama; Essl, Franz; Vicente, Joana; Winter, Marten; McGeoch, Melodie
    Biodiversity data are being collected at unprecedented rates. Such data often have significant value for purposes beyond the initial reason for which they were collected, particularly when they are combined and collated with other data sources. In the field of invasion ecology, however, integrating data represents a major challenge due to the notorious lack of standardisation of terminologies and categorisations, and the application of deviating concepts of biological invasions. Here, we introduce the SInAS workflow, short for Standardising and Integrating Alien Species data. The SInAS workflow standardises terminologies following Darwin Core, location names using a proposed translation table, taxon names based on the GBIF backbone taxonomy, and dates of first records based on a set of predefined rules. The output of the SInAS workflow provides various entry points that can be used both to improve coherence among the databases and to check and correct the original data. The workflow is flexible and can be easily adapted and extended to the needs of different users. We illustrate the workflow using a case-study integrating five widely used global databases of information on biological invasions. The comparison of the standardised databases revealed a surprisingly low degree of overlap, which indicates that the amount of data may currently not be fully exploited in the original databases. We highly recommend the use and development of publicly available workflows to ensure that the integration of databases is reproducible and transparent. Workflows, such as SInAS, ultimately increase trust in data, study results, and conclusions.