Browsing by Author "Havenga, Jan H."
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- ItemCalculation of freight externality costs for South Africa(AOSIS OpenJournals, 2012-11) Swarts, Stefaan; King, David; Simpson, Zane P.; Havenga, Jan H.; Goedhals-Gerber, Leila L.The purpose of this study is to quantify the marginal external costs associated with freight transport in South Africa. Six cost elements are included as externality cost items, namely, costs related to accidents, emissions, roadway land availability, policing, noise and congestion. Inputs in the calculations were a gravity-oriented freight flow model, a road transport cost model, actual transport costs for other modes, a warehousing cost survey, an inventory delay calculation and various national sources of information such as accident statistics and government budgets. Estimation techniques resulted in advances for externality cost measurement in South Africa. The quantification of the cost elements will be used to update the South African Freight Demand Model. The results show that the cost of transportation would have been 20% more if external factors were taken into account. The marginal rates of externalities can be used to develop scenarios based on alternative choices for South Africa’s freight transport infrastructure configuration.
- ItemContainer terminal spatial planning : a 2041 paradigm for the Western Cape Province in South Africa(AOSIS OpenJournals, 2012-11) Havenga, Jan H.; King, David; Simpson, Zane P.; Goedhals-Gerber, Leila L.; De Bod, AnnekeThis paper investigates the suitable location for an intermodal inland container terminal (IICT) in the city of Cape Town. A container market segmentation approach is used to project growth for container volumes over a 30-year period for all origin and destination pairings on a geographical district level in an identified catchment area. The segmentation guides the decision on what type of facility is necessary to fulfil capacity requirements in the catchment area and will be used to determine the maximum space requirements for a future IICT. Alternative sites are ranked from most suitable to least suitable using multi-criteria analysis, and preferred locations are identified. Currently, South Africa’s freight movement is dominated by the road sector. Heavy road congestion is thus prevalent at the Cape Town Container Terminal (CTCT). The paper proposes three possible alternative sites for an IICT that will focus on a hub-and-spoke system of transporting freight.
- ItemThe creation and application of a national freight flow model for South Africa(Scielo South Africa, 2012-04) Havenga, Jan H.; Pienaar, Wessel JohannesSouth Africa suffered from a historical lack of freight-flow information that was detrimental to infrastructure planning, optimal network development and market structuring. This paper proposes a methodology that can fill this gap, be repeated annually and is, by its nature, not prone to the errors of market surveys. The methodology develops a comprehensive description of South Africa's surface freight flow market space based on the definition of four definitive freight flow market segments. The results from the annual South African National Roads Agency (SANRAL) traffic counts are allocated to these segments to develop national road freight flows. For rail freight flows, the rail database is reclassified on a station-to-station (i.e. origin-destination) basis to match the freight flow market segments developed. Consequently, modal flows, market share and total flows for all freight flow market segments and the geographical groupings with the segments can be analysed and reported each year. The results confirm the deteriorating role of South Africa's rail system amidst growing freight demand, as well as the concomitant over-cropping of the road network, and therefore enable the development of specific national freight transport policy recommendations.
- ItemThe decarbonisation of transport logistics : a South African case study(Unisa Press, 2018-10-09) Goedhals-Gerber, Leila L.; Freiboth, Heinrich W.; Havenga, Jan H.South Africa is currently one of the "dirtiest" economies in the world in terms of carbon emissions. The South African economy is heavily dependent on energy-intensive industries, such as mining and primary minerals beneficiation, which in turn rely on fossil fuels as a source of energy. Sustainability is still a relatively new concept in South Africa, but awareness is growing, and there are several on-going initiatives aimed at reducing the country's total energy consumption. The objective of this paper is to apply the TIMBER framework to assess current transport decarbonisation activities in South Africa. The article discusses a limited field survey of ten important logistics experts in South Africa to establish whether the findings of the researchers are similar to the perceptions within the logistics sector of major industries in South Africa. This paper concludes by providing possible solutions for reducing carbon emissions in South Africa's logistics industry.
- ItemThe development and application of a freight transport flow model for South Africa(Stellenbosch : University of Stellenbosch, 2007-12) Havenga, Jan H.; Pienaar, W. J.; University of Stellenbosch. Faculty of Economic and Management Sciences. Dept. of Logistics.South Africa currently experiences the double jeopardy problem of catching up to global economic competitiveness whilst at the same time feeling the pressures of sustainability management spearheaded by a global agenda. Global sustainability is defined as growth that is shared without depleting natural resources or damaging the environment. Academic disciplines are challenged to make a contribution and economics as such should contribute by providing the lead and lag indicators for the planning and measurement of scarce resources usuage. This integrative view includes economic sub-disciplines, such as logistics. This integrative view is an acknowledged part of the economics discipline, except that the macro-economic context of some sub-disciplines, such as logistics, often receives less attention during the course of academic activities. The distribution of resources and outputs in the economy is a logistics controlled cross-cutting factor, but suffers from a lack of macro-economic perspective, and lead and lag orientated measurement. This state of the affairs is a historic backlog of logistics and its specific position within economics. During the primary economic era the world began to configure networks and markets, which became more pronounced and settled with the dawn and settling of the industrial era. Logistics then was a “given” and did not receive much thought even as industrial, market economies developed. Transport was regarded as an administered cost, i.e. inefficiencies in logistics systems were evenly distributed between competitors, not giving any specific entity an advantage. With the advent of global competition and the diminishing returns on other cost saving measures, companies began to collaborate and integrate logistics functions within value chains, but the administered part of transport costs failed to receive the attention it required. In this way, global competitors did begin to experience disadvantages on a national level as whole economies suffered from inefficiencies in logistics and specifically transport systems.
- ItemExtending freight flow modelling to Sub-Saharan Africa to inform infrastructure investments : trade data issues(AOSIS OpenJournals, 2012-11) Havenga, Jan H.; Simpson, Zane P.; King, David; Lanz, E. J.; Goedhals-Gerber, Leila L.; De Bod, AnnekeThis paper highlights the first attempt by researchers at Stellenbosch University to model freight flows between and for 17 countries in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). The model will be informed by and linked to the South African surface Freight Demand Model (FDM) given these dimensions. By analysing and collating available datasets and developing a freight flow model, a better understanding of freight movements between countries can be obtained and then used for long-term planning efforts. A simple methodology is envisaged that will entail a high-level corridor classification that links a major district in the country with a similar district in another country. Existing trade data will be used to corroborate new base-year economic demand and supply volumetric data that will be generated from social accounting matrices for each country. The trade data will also provide initial flow dynamics between countries that will be refined according to the new volumes. The model can then generate commodity-level corridor flows between SSA countries, and between SSA countries and the rest of the world, as well as intra-country rural and metropolitan flows, using a gravity-based modelling approach. This article outlines efforts to harmonise trade data between the 17 countries identified, as well as between these countries and the rest of the world as a first step towards developing a freight demand model for sub-Saharan Africa.
- ItemForecasting South African containers for international trade : a commodity-based approach(AOSIS OpenJournals, 2011-11) Havenga, Jan H.; Van Eeden, JoubertThe most common approach used internationally for forecasting international trade containers is models based on the correlation between container trade and economic growth. While the strong historical correlation is indisputable, this paper argues that there will be saturation in the propensity to containerise as all the suitable volumes of the underlying commodities shift to containers over time. In addition, the link between freight transport and GDP will decouple as more sustainable approaches to economic development, and therefore freight transport, are necessitated by economic and environmental realities. A commodity-based model, taking into account the underlying drivers of containerisation, is proposed here as a more realistic forecast of container demand. This could have a material impact on how large-scale investment decisions are directed.
- ItemFreight corridor performance measurement system : a framework for South Africa(AOSIS Publishing, 2016) Havenga, Jan H.; De Bod, AnnekeENGLISH SUMMARY : Background: On a national level, South Africa’s freight logistics industry is inefficient. The country ranks 36th out of 40 countries in terms of transport productivity (tonne kilometres as a ratio of gross domestic product, or GDP); the ratio of freight logistics costs to GDP measured 11.1% in 2013, compared to that of developed regions which measures in the order of 9%; and rail tonne-km market share on the two most dense long-distance corridors, namely, GautengDurban and Gauteng-Cape Town, is only 12.8% and 4.4%, respectively, whereas rail is globally acknowledged as a more efficient provider of long-distance freight solutions, given appropriate investments and service commitments. Objectives: A cornerstone of improved national freight logistics performance is the availability of reliable indicators to quantify the efficiency and capacity of the logistics network over the intermediate and long term, thereby enabling an evidence-based policy and investment environment. The objective of this article is to describe the foundation framework (i.e. phase 1) for South Africa’s freight corridor performance measurement system (CPMS). Once populated, the CPMS will be a key generator of indicators to facilitate the systemic management of corridors as a national production factor and thereby contributing to South Africa’s competitiveness. Method: The design of South Africa’s CPMS was informed by desktop research and refined through an extensive stakeholder consultation process. A distinction was made between South Africa’s dedicated bulk corridors and the multi-modal corridors. Results: Facilitating both stakeholder involvement and agreement on key indicators, as well as the eventual development of a system supporting the population, aggregation and dissemination of the CPMS are critical outcomes for the management of corridors as a national production factor. Three overarching corridor indicators were defined, relating to increased throughput, lower costs and optimal modal application – the key rationale to improve the competitiveness of South African industry. This is supported by three corridor measurement perspectives, that is, a policy, customer service and infrastructure perspective. The purpose of the policy perspective is to support the role of national government in facilitating logistics competitiveness and equitable access through appropriate policy instruments. The customer service perspective should track service reliability and efficiency as contracted, at costs and cycle times that facilitate the competitiveness of the freight owner. The infrastructure perspective indicates whether sufficient capacity is provided, and whether this capacity is both available when required and utilised optimally. Conclusion: Elevation of logistics to the macroeconomic realm through the development of appropriate indicators will enable the management of logistics as a national production factor, thereby contributing to reducing national freight logistics costs and improving industry competitiveness.
- ItemA heavy goods vehicle fleet forecast for South Africa(AOSIS, 2018) Havenga, Jan H.; Le Roux, Phillippus P. T.; Simpson, Zane P.Purpose: To develop and apply a methodology to calculate the heavy goods vehicle fleet required to meet South Africa’s projected road freight transport demand within the context of total surface freight transport demand. Methodology: Total freight flows are projected through the gravity modelling of a geographically disaggregated input–output model. Three modal shift scenarios, defined over a 15-year forecast period, combined with road efficiency improvements, inform the heavy goods vehicle fleet for different vehicle types to serve the estimated future road freight transport demand. Findings: The largest portion of South Africa’s high and growing transport demand will remain on long-distance road corridors. The impact can be moderated through the concurrent introduction of domestic intermodal solutions, performance-based standards in road freight transport and improved vehicle utilisation. This presupposes the prioritisation of collaborative initiatives between government, freight owners and logistics service providers. Research limitations: (1) The impact of short-distance urban movements on fleet numbers is not included yet. (2) Seasonality, which negatively influences bi-directional flows, is not taken into account owing to the annual nature of the macroeconomic data. (3) The methodology can be applied to other countries; the input data are however country-specific and findings can therefore not be generalised. (4) The future possibility of a reduction in absolute transport demand through, for example, reshoring have not been modelled yet. Practical implications: Provides impetus for the implementation of domestic intermodal solutions and road freight performance-based standards to mitigate the impact of growing freight transport demand. Societal implications: More efficient freight transport solutions will reduce national logistics costs and freight-related externalities. Originality: Develops a methodology for forecasting the heavy goods vehicle fleet within the context of total freight transport to inform government policy and industry actions.
- ItemIdentification of key target markets for intermodal freight transport solutions in South Africa(Journal of Transport and Supply Chain Management, 2010) Van Eeden, Joubert; Havenga, Jan H.The Accelerated and Shared Growth Initiative for South Africa (AsgiSA) identified South Africa’s freight logistics challenges as among the key binding constraints on the country’s growth aspirations. The research presented here points to the structural imbalance between road and rail freight transport as one of the key contributors to this state of affairs. Most long-distance corridor transport has been captured by road. However, longdistance transport is a market segment that is very suitable for intermodal transportation: rail is utilised for the high-density, long-distance component and road for the feeder and distribution services at the corridor end points. A market segmentation approach is developed to identify the corridors and industries that are natural candidates for such solutions, thereby paving the way for role-players and stakeholders to initiate a dialogue on the development of appropriate solutions
- ItemThe importance of disaggregated freight flow forecasts to inform transport infrastructure investments(AOSIS OpenJournals, 2013-09) Havenga, Jan H.This article presents the results of a comprehensive disaggregated commodity flow model for South Africa. The wealth of data available enables a segmented analysis of future freight transportation demand in order to assist with the prioritisation of transportation investments, the development of transport policy and the growth of the logistics service provider industry. In 2011, economic demand for commodities in South Africa’s competitive surface-freight transport market amounted to 622 million tons and is predicted to increase to 1834m tons by 2041, which is a compound annual growth rate of 3.67%. Fifty percent of corridor freight constitutes break bulk; intermodal solutions are therefore critical in South Africa. Scenario analysis indicates that 80% of corridor break-bulk tons can by serviced by four intermodal facilities – in Gauteng, Durban, Cape Town and Port Elizabeth. This would allow for the development of an investment planning hierarchy, enable industry targeting (through commodity visibility), ensure capacity development ahead of demand and lower the cost of logistics in South Africa.
- ItemA logistics barometer for South Africa : towards sustainable freight mobility(AOSIS Publishing, 2016) Havenga, Jan H.; De Bod, Anneke; Simpson, Zane P.; Viljoen, Nadia; King, DavidENGLISH SUMMARY : Background: South Africa has a disproportionately high freight transport demand owing to industrial development far from ports, low domestic beneficiation and improper modal use. Historical freight transport policy supported primary economic development, failing to preempt the changing economic structure and the resulting freight transport needs, resulting in excessive transport costs and externalities. Objectives: To share the macroeconomic freight transport challenges revealed by South Africa’s Logistics Barometer, and to identify key interventions to address these. Method: Freight flows are modelled by disaggregating the national input–output model into 83 commodity groupings and 372 geographical areas, culminating in a 30-year forecast at 5-year intervals for three scenarios, followed by distance-decay gravity modelling to determine freight flows. Logistics costs are calculated by relating these flows to the costs of fulfilling associated logistic functions. Results: Long-distance transport remains the largest general freight typology and is, due to inefficient macro logistics design, extremely costly, both in terms of intrinsic and extrinsic costs. Conclusion: South Africa’s freight task will grow 2.5-fold by 2043. Logistics and externality costs are already untenable at current levels. The development of domestic intermodal solutions will support the drive towards sustainable freight mobility.
- ItemLogistics costs in South Africa : the case for macroeconomic measurement(Wiley- Blackwell, 2010-12) Havenga, Jan H.In South Africa, logistics optimisation is largely managed from a microeconomic perspective. This paper makes the case for macroeconomic logistics measurement, presents the results of the country's national logistics cost model and proposes the first key macroeconomic logistics indicators for South Africa. The research shows that South Africa's logistics costs are higher than the global average. The majority of these costs are attributable to road transport, of which the biggest cost driver is fuel, which in turn is determined by volatile oil prices. This poses a significant exogenous risk to logistics cost management in South Africa. The risk can be mitigated through a structural adjustment in long-distance freight transport (from road dominated to rail dominated). The paper concludes by proposing two key macroeconomic logistics indicators to facilitate this process. © 2010 The Author. Journal compilation © 2010 Economic Society of South Africa.
- ItemMacro-logistics trends : indications for a more sustainable economy(AOSIS OpenJournals, 2013-07) Havenga, Jan H.; Simpson, Zane P.; De Bod, AnnekeThe North American and South African logistics cost calculation-time series are the two longest-running statistical series available worldwide. These calculations indicate that transportation’s contribution to logistics costs is rising, as the key cost driver (oil price) is increasing exponentially. This is exacerbated by volatile oil prices and the inclusion of externality charges to reduce the logistics environmental footprint. Therefore, it is necessary to consider a new paradigm where material logistics requirements are reduced through localisation and consumption reduction. This, in turn, implies the consideration of new indicators for the future measurement of logistics costs. Because this article asks questions about the suitability of GDP as the primary (and often only) measurement of economic output, new measurements are required. If this position changes, the comparison of logistics costs with GDP alone will become questionable.
- ItemA practical guide to strategy : making strategic thinking, development and implementation accessible(SUN PReSS, 2004) Havenga, Jan H.; Hobbs, IlseENGLISH SUMMARY : Book Blurb: How do we incorporate strategy in everything that we do? Can we make our lives and businesses more meaningful with a practical strategic approach? The authors of this book believe that it is not only possible, but that strategy can be a powerful tool to enrich our lives and provide focus to our thoughts and relationships. They describe, with business case studies enriched by examples from other walks of life, a simple process to guide our strategic thinking.
- ItemProvincial logistics costs in South Africas Western Cape province : microcosm of national freight logistics challenges(AOSIS Publishing, 2015-09) Havenga, Jan H.; Goedhals-Gerber, Leila L.; De Bod, Anneke; Simpson, Zane P.Background: Logistics costs are most commonly measured on a national level. An understanding of the provincial logistics landscape can add significant value both to provincial and national policy interventions; such measurements are however scarce. South Africa’s national freight logistics survey points to significant challenges in the structure of the freight transport market, most importantly the dominance of road freight transport on dense, longdistance corridors. The Cape Town-Gauteng corridor is the main economic artery linking the Western Cape province to the rest of the country. Objectives: The provincial government commissioned this research to develop an understanding of the province’s contribution to the national logistics challenges in order to alleviate both provincial and national logistics challenges. Results: The research results provide a distinct description of the key action required – to provide an intermodal solution for the dense flows of fast-moving consumer goods on the Cape Town-Gauteng corridor in order to reduce the significant transport and externality costs related to these flows and reduce exposure to exogenous cost drivers. Conclusion: Collaborative research between government and private industry into appropriate intermodal technologies must be prioritised within the ambit of South Africa’s socioeconomic environment. This shift can be further supported through the internalisation of road transport externalities to enable a total cost decision between modes, as well as through appropriate regulation of the freight transport industry.
- ItemQuantifying freight transport volumes in developing regions : lessons learnt from South Africa's experience during the 20th century(Taylor & Francis, 2012-12) Havenga, Jan H.; Pienaar, W. J.A number of attempts were made during the 20th century to develop national freight flow information for South Africa. This paper discusses these contributions and attempts to identify the major reasons why the research did not give rise to long-term strategic infrastructure planning. It is important to learn these lessons to avoid making the same mistakes during the critical large-scale infrastructure investments that are unfolding in the first half of the 21st century. The paper starts with an overview of the development of South Africa’s surface freight transport infrastructure, and then provides a cross-country comparison of South Africa’s key freight indicators. This serves to underscore the importance of a long-term approach to such infrastructure investment.
- ItemRail renaissance based on strategic market segmentation principles(University of South Africa (Unisa), 2012) Havenga, Jan H.South Africa’s annual State of Logistics survey indicates that the majority of dense, long-distance surface freight is transported by road, placing severe constraints on the country’s freight logistics infrastructure and posing a significant exogenous risk to the growth aspirations of the country. This risk is attributable to the excessive demand for road freight transport, which is dependent on imported fuel at highly unstable prices and is more damaging to the environment – leading to uncertain future offset charges. A rail solution can utilise locally generated electricity (currently coalbased, but partially switchable to renewable energy in the future). The critical requirement, however, is to determine exactly how much freight, and specifically which freight, can switch to rail. In order to identify the freight flows that will exploit rail’s economic fundamentals, a market segmentation model was developed. A feasible target market was identified that enables key stakeholders (government, the national railroad and major road service providers) to engage in ensuring that the urgent planned R300 billion infrastructure spending by the public and private sectors is invested in suitable freight logistics infrastructure to support the country’s growth ideals sustainably.
- ItemRevitalisation of branch lines in South Africa : a long-term view for sustainability(AOSIS Publishing, 2010-11-30) Simpson, Zane P.; Havenga, Jan H.South Africa’s national railway management is considering the further closing of a number of branch lines due to profitability pressures from stakeholders. This paper cautions against a myopic approach to such closures. Traditionally these decisions are driven by short-term profit motives realised through resulting core line densification. The research presented in this paper demonstrates the importance of 1) taking cognisance of potential branch lines flows; 2) considering freight transport externalities and road usage costs; and 3) understanding long-term demand, in informing closure decisions. The research results reveal considerable volume opportunities for branch lines which, if captured, will significantly reduce both the direct transport costs for this traffic as well as externality charges for the economy. This will therefore not only render rural economies more competitive but also enable the provision of more sustainable freight transport to these communities. The research approach will be of value to researchers in both developed and developing economies to inform the continuous debate regarding rail rationalisation and rail revival.
- ItemSouth Africa's domestic intermodal imperative(Elsevier, 2012-12) Havenga, Jan H.; Simpson, Zane P.; De Bod, AnnekeAn integrated alternative to road only or rail only transport does not exist in South Africa for domestic freight. This is in spite of the fact that national freight logistics costs are high, road infrastructure is challenged and concern for the environmental impact of road transport is increasing. These factors have renewed interest in intermodal transport solutions, which are the focus of this article. The question is whether a viable domestic intermodal solution can be found through segmenting freight flows and developing a business case based on these segments. The research confirms that this is possible and the segmentation and subsequent business case is presented. The results demonstrate that building three intermodal terminals to connect the three major industrial hubs – Gauteng, Durban and Cape Town – through an intermodal solution could reduce transport costs (including externalities) for the identified 22.9 million tons of intermodal freight flows on the Cape and the Natal corridors by 64% (including externalities).