Doctoral Degrees (Industrial Engineering)

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Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) technology adoption in South Africa
(Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 2018-12) Craig, Omotoyosi; Brent, Alan C.; Dinter, Frank; De Kock, Imke; Stellenbosch University. Faculty of Engineering. Dept. of Industrial Engineering.
ENGLISH ABSTRACT: South Africa (SA) aims to generate 42 per cent of its electricity from renewable energy technology sources by 2030. To achieve this target, the government started the Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer Procurement Programme (REI4P) to allow easy integration of renewable energy technologies into the existing energy mix. The country has an abundant solar resource, and the potential to harvest this resource through concentrating solar power (CSP) has been proven. In 2010, concentrating solar power (CSP) was one of the major renewable energy technologies that was prioritised by SA, and as a result 600 MW of CSP have been bought in the REI4P, and this includes seven plants that have been, or are being, built. Conversely, recent events have shown that the future of CSP in South Africa looks bleak, as the government’s recent Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) updates gave no allocation to new CSP plants beyond 2030. Several factors have contributed to the chasm in the adoption of CSP technology in the country. Very few CSP plants are connected to the grid, and there is limited research and literature on its learning effect and economics of scale. Also, the impacts of this technology on South Africa’s trade and the local manufacturing industries, as well as on the local research, development, and innovation community, have not been investigated to date. This research presents a detailed analysis of the CSP technologies in South Africa in terms of the existing technology adoption models and diffusion strategies, used by government and its agencies, to improve the development and deployment of these technologies. The study also analyses the state of CSP, concerns, and complex issues limiting the deployment of the technology in the country. The study then uses mathematical relationship to determine the progress ratio, the learning effect, and the likely future of CSP in the country. The impact of the CSP technology on economics and trade were then quantified and a technology specific roadmap was developed. The innovation analysis carried out on CSP technologies in South Africa shows that its tariff is currently higher than that of other major RETs (wind and PV), and that the innovation experience of the CSP technology is incremental, as each subsequent plant was an improvement on previous facilities elsewhere. The development of research into innovation, and eventually into market products of CSP systems, is improving with a closer relationship and working together of the stakeholders. This progress, however, is slow, because of the limited knowledge in identifying and understanding the important activities and policy instruments that can aid the prioritisation of important actions to forge better relationships among stakeholders, and fast track the deployment of CSP. The expert elicitation analysis on the impact of RD&D funding on the present and future cost of electricity from CSP presents a RD&D investment strategy that will foster technological improvement and adoption of CSP in the country. Three RD&D funding scenarios are presented and analysed, and an allocation procedure was developed. The results show that strategic policies, laws and the right funding can help South Africa to fully maximize its CSP resources potential to foster cost reduction and market viability of its solar innovations. The result from the systems dynamics analysis shows that improved support for research is the most effective way to open new methods and ways in which the CSP technologies can be deployed, which will foster further CSP adoption in in the country. Further analysis, based on the data from literature and existing plants, highlights the current state of CSP in South Africa for capacity and costs. The economic indicators of CSP, which include LCOE, LPOE, DNI, and specific costs, are discussed, and the most realistic future cost of CSP in SA is presented. Limitations to the learning effect of CSP in SA are identified; existing principles were used with limited data to develop the learning rate, progress ratio, and cost reduction rate of CSP. The study shows that there are no existing patterns in the capital costs of the existing CSP plants in SA for technology, size, solar multiple, site location, or storage capacity; this makes the experience curve analysis of the CSP industry difficult. The solar field cost, which is the most significant capital cost, was analysed independently to give an idea of what the CSP experience curve might look like. The CSP learning rate in SA was calculated, the future of capital costs was then determined, and the likely experience curve for CSP in SA was presented. The assessment of the SA local manufacturing capabilities for CSP related services identified strength and the challenges of the sector. It further estimated the economic and social benefits of improvements, including the employment opportunities, and the overall impacts on trade and economy. A technology specific roadmap was developed in this study to present a framework for the medium term CSP adoption outlook in South Africa.
Development of a participatory planning approach for energy sustainability at a local government level
(Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 2020-12) Fouche, Elaine; Brent, Alan C.; De Kock, Imke; Stellenbosch University. Faculty of Engineering. Dept. of Industrial Engineering.
ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Planning for a sustainable energy future is a necessity, but doing so, especially at a local government level, is complex. A sustainable energy future requires systemic changes to the current energy landscape, which requires a collective understanding of many perspectives, multiple objectives and interrelated variables within an environment faced with many uncertainties and risks. To deal with the complexity at a local government level, stakeholder involvement is non-negotiable. This study developed a participatory planning approach for local energy sustainability by answering the following research question: What should a participatory planning approach at a local government level entail to enable a move towards a sustainable energy future? The research comprised a single instrumental qualitative case study, conducted with Hessequa Municipality in the Western Cape province of South Africa, combined with a literature review of public participation, collaborative governance, participatory approaches, and problem-structuring methods. The identified research objectives were addressed through three published papers in peerreviewed journals. A synthesis of planning and decision-making literature shows that a participatory approach should facilitate mutual understanding of the problem, incorporate all stakeholders’ values and, ultimately, provide better trust in and acceptance of future decisions. The research elicited success factors that can inform the development and implementation of a participatory planning approach (research objective 1). An investigation of how renewable energy forms part of the strategy of a local government concluded that renewable energy plays a role in the strategic objectives of local government, although it has not been explicitly discussed as a main priority during the development of the municipal Integrated Development Plan and strategy (research objective 2). In addition, participatory processes formed an integral part of the strategy formulation, but limitations were identified. To overcome some of these limitations, a visualised strategy is proposed for effective communication with the public (research objective 3). The final research objective focused on the development, application, and evaluation of a participatory approach to plan for local energy sustainability, namely EDAS: to Explore, Design and Act for Sustainability. The research showed that EDAS could be a way forward for local governments and other institutions to plan for local energy sustainability; however, more work is needed at a local level to enhance public and stakeholder participation and to improve the EDAS approach for institutionalisation (research objective 4). The findings from this study contribute to the research fields of public administration, stakeholder participation, soft operational research, and energy sustainability. The research provides a novel participatory approach, namely EDAS, to plan for local sustainability and through application provides a solid case study of a local municipality in its journey towards sustainable energy. It is recommended that more research be conducted on applying and evaluating the EDAS approach in other local government contexts as well as in public enterprises.
Greenhouse gas forecasting and target setting using an ex-post analysis
(Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 2019-04) Immink, Harmke; Brent, Alan C.; Grobbelaar, Sara; Stellenbosch University. Faculty of Engineering. Dept. of Industrial Engineering.
ENGLISH SUMMARY: Concerns about the impact of climate change are driving the need for stabilising the global temperature rise to below 2oC. In parallel to countries making commitments under the Paris Agreement, sector decarbonisation trajectories are being developed. Globally, collective action is required, and cities and companies are increasingly requested to voluntary set greenhouse gas (GHG) targets. Tracking progress is key to meeting the objectives of the Paris Agreement. In order to track progress against a GHG target or commitment, a credible GHG inventory, as well as the associated emissions reduction from GHG mitigation actions, are required. An analytical technique was developed the present GHG inventory, corrected if needed, together with the GHG mitigation actions to construct a counterfactual baseline. This counterfactual baseline is compared to the GHG target in one infographic. South Africa committed to a peak, plateau, and decline trajectory. However, the latest publicly available inventory is for 2010, but can be extrapolated based on trade statistics. The inventory is based on the default Tier 1 coal calorific values of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and could be over reported by 20%. A methodological approach is proposed, where the emissions from coal calorific value, together with trade statistics, are quantified and presented together with the GHG emission reduction estimates of implemented mitigation policies and measures. Companies in the mining sector of South Africa voluntary signed a 15% GHG reduction over a ten-year period from 2005, linked to the South African Energy Efficiency Accord. GHG emissions increase as mining companies transport ore over increased distances in opencast operations, or extract ore from deeper levels in underground operations. The GHG inventories of a gold and an iron ore mining company, together with the implemented projects, are analysed to evaluate progress. The decarbonisation trajectories of cities are linked to the implementation of national commitments and voluntary target setting commitments under the Global Covenant of Mayors. Within a developing country context, with rapid urbanisation and limited data, tracking the greenhouse gas inventory against the targets is challenging. This study looks at four cities in South Africa that made greenhouse gas reduction commitments and supplied inventory data into publicly available databases. The greenhouse gas data for each city is extrapolated based on official data from national census and socio-economic studies. The formal commitment to meeting the sustainable development goals was announced 2016, to providing basic drinking water, sanitation, electricity, as well as transport for citizens currently unemployed. This study provides insights into the trade-off between additional GHG emissions in meeting the sustainable development goals in fast-growing cities of a developing country, and the decarbonisation commitment of these cities. Tracking progress against absolute greenhouse gas reduction targets should take the uncertainties of the underlying data for GHG inventories, and mitigation outcomes, into account. Quantification of the emission reductions of implemented mitigation initiatives is critical in managing emissions against a GHG mitigation trajectory. The importance of this study is to enhance transparency in a data poor environment, while keeping the focus on mitigation action.
Managing technology within the context of sustainability transitions: An integrated framework
(Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 2020-12) De Kock, Imke H.; Brent, Alan C.; Grobbelaar, Sara S.; Stellenbosch University. Faculty of Engineering. Dept. of Industrial Engineering.
ENGLISH ABSTRACT: There is an increasing awareness and understanding that addressing the numerous sustainability challenges that we face on a global scale poses a grand challenge. Addressing the sustainability challenges without innovative technologies will be difficult, and thus the development and diffusion of technologies that contribute towards addressing sustainability challenges are deemed to be among the main pathways towards a sustainable future. However, technologies that could contribute towards increasingly sustainable socio-technical systems face a number of challenges; for example, ‘sustainable’ technologies may not offer the same (often economic) benefits as traditional, ‘unsustainable’ technology(ies). Nevertheless, the role that technology plays in achieving sustainability, its prospects and possible contributions (both positive and negative), its dynamics, and the technology-related factors that influence the progression of a socio-technical system towards sustainability, must all be understood in order to govern such transitions. It is evident, however, that the grand societal challenges and quest for sustainability pose substantial challenges for the management of technology within these contexts, and in turn also highlight the need to consider the management of technology within tA bibliometric and linkage analysis was performed to confirm or refute the disconnect that exists in the literature between that pertaining to technology management, and that pertaining to socio-technical transitions. On the basis of the findings of the bibliometric and linkage analysis, it thus was concluded that the integration of socio-technical transitions, approaches, concepts, frameworks and aspects with those oftechnology management theories and practices, and vice versa, are not addressed adequately in the literature. Given the role of technology, and the management thereof, to address the grand challenges, more research efforts are required across these bodies of knowledge to enable a just transition towards sustainability. The aim of this research was thus twofold: firstly, to provide a premise for the integration of technology management and the concept of socio-technical transitions, and secondly, to provide the basis for the definition and identification of technology management considerations within the context of socio-technical transitions. This study can be described as a theory-building or model-building study and, due to the nature of this research, a constructivist philosophical perspective was embraced, and a primarily qualitative and deductive research strategy was followed.The Integrated Technology Management-oriented Sustainability Transitions (ITMST) framework, as a designed result of the requirement specification, consists of five key features that collectively provide the premise for the integration between technology management and socio-technical transitions. The features are: (i) transition value creation, (ii) collective and individual consideration of transition progress, transition capability and system performance, (iii) co-management of incumbent and emerging/alternative technology domains, (iv) contextual specificity, and (v) contribution-requirement view. Given the conceptual nature ofthe ITMST framework and the stated importance of practical utility, the proposed framework was he context of socio-technical transitions towards operationalised by translating the framework into a methodology. The ITMST methodology, in contrast with the conceptual framing of a premise for the integration between technology management and the concept of sustainability transitions in the ITMST framework, outlines the practicability of the framework to provide decision support pertaining to considerations for the management sustainability. of technology within the context of a sustainability transition. The ITMST methodology thus addresses the second part of the research aim, which was to provide the basis for a robust analysis to identify and define technology management considerations within the context of sustainability transitions. The evaluation of the developed ITMST framework and methodology looked to address (i) whether the ITMST framework provides a premise for the integration of technology management, and (ii) whether the ITMST methodology provides the basis for the definition and identification of technology management considerations within the context of socio-technical transitions. The evaluation was addressed through a review of literature, a theoretical verification, and the operationalisation of the framework with a case study – on the required transition of the electricity sector of South Africa. The case study addressed whether theframework and methodology are implementable. The findings of the case study showcased that the ITMSTmethodology provides a basis for the definition and identification of technology management considerationswithin the context of sustainability transitions. And the evaluation of the validity and applicability of theITMST framework, along with the theoretical verification, highlights that the ITMST framework provides apremise for the integration between technology management and socio-technical transitions.
Sustainable future CSP fleet deployment in South Africa: A hydrological approach to strategic management
(Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 2019-12) Duvenhage, Dries Frank; Brent, Alan C.; Stafford, W. H. L.; Grobbelaar, Sara; Stellenbosch University. Faculty of Engineering. Dept. of Industrial Engineering.
ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The global growth in renewable energy, as a means to mitigate climate change, has seen the large-scale deployment of solar photovoltaics (PV) and wind in the electricity generation mix. However, this presents several challenges; primarily that both wind and PV are unpredictable and therefore cannot supply reliable electricity. This necessitates energy storage or the other, more flexible electricity generators to meet the shortfall. Concentrating solar power (CSP) can supply this shortfall in electricity through the concentration of solar irradiation and thermal storage of this heat. This thermal process requires cooling, best achieved with a finite resource, namely water. Paradoxically, CSP is ideally suited to areas of high solar irradiation that are characteristically arid with low and variable water availability. However, the need for water, mainly as a source of cooling, is often neglected in the planning and development of CSP at a national scale, with few studies that explicitly assess and quantify these hydrological constraints. This study aims to fill this research gap by improving our understanding of the constraints imposed by water resources on CSP development in arid regions, using South Africa as a case study. A systematic approach was used to model the hydrological constraints to CSP plants’ operation and its wide-spread deployment. To determine to what extent CSP might play a role in supplying electricity to the South African grid, a review of future energy mix plans was performed. Although the theoretical potential of CSP based on the solar resource and suitable land is around 12,000 TWh (for the most efficient commercial CSP technologies), the current plans limit this potential considerably to between only 1.87 TWh and 142 TWh. Furthermore, these allocated capacities to CSP in the South African electricity supply are well below the limitations imposed by water resources, especially if dry-cooled plants are used. CSP performance varies according to design and location, since meteorological conditions vary spatially and temporally. A high-level efficiency model (HLEM) was developed to quantify this variability in South Africa. It uses validated equations and assumptions from literature with CSP energy transfer efficiencies to determine monthly performance in terms of net electricity generation, water consumption factor and total volume of water consumption. Parabolic Trough and Central Receiver CSP plants were modelled with either wet or dry cooling and the CSP performance analysed at thousands of suitable locations in South Africa. To assess water availability for CSP deployment at these locations, publicly available hydrological data for river flows, dam storage levels and groundwater reserves were used. The water demand from the four CSP-cooling configurations was then measured against the monthly available water per quaternary catchment area. The hydrological limitations were calculated for each configuration, and it was found that, depending on the CSP-cooling configuration, water availability will reduce the theoretical potential for CSP deployment to between 1 - 5% thereof (from 12,000 TWh to 120 – 566 TWh). These results provide guidelines for policy and planning of CSP deployment in South Africa, to ensure the sustainable management of water resources.
System dynamics simulation of income distribution and electric vehicle diffusion for electricity planning in South Africa
(Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 2018-12) Pilay, Nalini Sooknanan; Brent, Alan C.; Musango, J. K.; Grobbelaar, Sara; Stellenbosch University. Faculty of Engineering. Dept. of Industrial Engineering.
ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The electricity generation industry has developed a symbiotic interdependence with the social, environmental, economic and political ecologies in the country, resulting in divergent complexities, which require non-linear model-based planning methodologies. Some of the determinants influencing the power industry include technologies, such as battery electric vehicles (BEVs), which have gained prominence as a possible option to support South Africa’s climate change commitments. This study used an adapted system dynamics modelling process to determine the provincial affordability of BEVs in South Africa so that amended regional forecasts of BEVs could be established to plan for charging infrastructure, environmental impacts in the energy and transport sectors, as well as changes in electricity consumption. Results from the Electricity Strategic Battery Electric Vehicle (E-StratBEV) simulator indicate that aligning BEV market penetration with the current consumer behaviour within deciles on vehicle expenditure, results in significantly lower than the expected market penetration. This means that by 2040, a low growth GDP-based target of 233,700 BEVs could adjust to 44,155 BEVs, while a high growth scenario of 2,389,950 BEVs (based on South Africa’s commitment in the Paris Agreement) could adjust to 451,736 BEVs. The inclusion of BEV drivers, such as reduced purchase price, increased charging infrastructure, reduced “range anxiety”, and improved reputation effect, add a further cumulative total of 270 GWh from 2019 until 2040 for the low growth scenario, and an additional 2,764 GWh for the high growth scenario, to the residential electricity consumption. From 2019 to 2040, a renewables heavy supply mix results in a 7% cumulative decrease in CO2 emissions in the transport sector; however, with a coal heavy supply mix, no gains in carbon emission reduction is achieved. The adapted system dynamics modelling process allowed for the successful development and implementation of the E-StratBEV, however, the process can be further enhanced by establishing preliminary complexity criteria to ensure a project requires this method before commencement.

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Browsing Doctoral Degrees (Industrial Engineering) by browse.metadata.advisor "Brent, Alan C."

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