A strategic framework for improbable circumstances

Kennon, Denzil ; Schutte, Corne S. L. (2015)

CITATION: Kennon, D. & Schutte, C. S. L. 2015. A strategic framework for improbable circumstances. South African Journal of Industrial Engineering, 26(2):68-84, doi:10.7166/26-2-977.

The original publication is available at http://sajie.journals.ac.za

Article

Rare events, known as ‘Black Swans’, have determined the course of history. One of these was the global economic crisis of 2008. Such events highlight fields like strategic management and their shortcomings in helping to prepare organisations. The Strategic Framework for Improbable Circumstances was designed to add to the strategic management process by improving organisational preparation for these rare events. The framework was validated through interviews with experts who showed the need for such a framework, and who confirmed that it is a good first step for organisations to take towards addressing these Black Swan events.

Rare gebeurtenisse, ook bekend as ‘Swart Swane’, het die verloop van die verlede bepaal. Een van hierdie gebeurtenisse was die wêreldwye ekonomiese krisis van 2008. Hierdie Swart Swane het die fokus geplaas op strategiese bestuur, en op die tekortkominge van hierdie studieveld om besighede beter voor te berei om Swart Swane beter te hanteer. Die Strategiese Raamwerk vir Onwaarskynlike Omstandighede is ontwikkel as ’n byvoeging tot die strategiese bestuursproses deur die organisasie se voorbereiding vir hierdie tipe gebeurtenisse te verbeter. Die validasie van die raamwerk was gedoen deur onderhoude met deskundiges wat bewys het dat so raamwerk benodig word, en uitgewys het dat dit ’n goeie eerste stap was vir besighede om Swart Swane te trotseer.

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