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Impact of inter-provincial migration on individual labour market status : the case of Limpopo-Gauteng migration flow

Buwembo, Peter (2015-12)

Thesis (MPhil)--Stellenbosch University, 2015.


ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Gauteng province is the biggest recipient of migrants in South Africa, both international and internal. Limpopo province is the biggest contributor of internal migrants to Gauteng contributing almost 30% of the internal migrants to Gauteng during the period 2001-2011. This study investigates the labour market outcomes in terms of employment and earnings of migrants from Limpopo to Gauteng in comparison to their counterparts who remained in Limpopo for two consecutive periods, 1996-2001 and 2001-2011. Using the neo-classical theory of migration, logistic-regression models estimate the probability for employment of migrants to Gauteng compared to their counterparts who remained in Limpopo. Secondly it also estimate the probability of a migrant being in a high or medium income group rather than low income group compared to the non-migrant. Thirdly, spatial statistical techniques are applied to determine if there are any statistically significant spatially clustering of Limpopo migrants in certain parts of Gauteng. The results show that migrants to Gauteng have better labour market outcomes compared to non-migrants who remained in Limpopo. However the gap between migrants and nonmigrants in terms of individual labour market outcomes declined between census 2001 and census 2011. The results also indicate that migrants to Gauteng are more likely to be in the high income group than in low income group compared to the non-migrants in Limpopo, although the gap between the migrants and non-migrants is declining. The results of the spatial statistical analysis confirmed a statistically significant spatial clustering of Limpopo migrants in the Tshwane metropolitan municipality and the northern parts of Ekurhuleni.

AFRIKAANS OPSOMMING: Gauteng is die grootste ontvanger van beide internasionale en interne migrante in Suid- Afrika. Limpopo provinsie is die grootste enekele bron van interne migrante na Gauteng en het soveel as 30% van die interne migrante na Gauteng bygedra gedurende die tydperk 2001- 2011. Hierdie studie ondersoek die arbeidsmark uitkomste in terme van indiensnemingskoerse en inkomste vlakke van migrante uit Limpopo na Gauteng in vergelyking met hul eweknieë wat in Limpopo agtergebly het vir twee agtereenvolgende tydperke 1996-2001 en 2001-2011. Deur die gebruik van die neo-klassieke teorie van migrasie en die toepassing van logistiese regressiemodelle word die waarskynlikheid vir indiensneming van migrante na Gauteng bereken en vergelyk met hul eweknieë wat in Limpopo aangebly het. Die waarskynlikheid van migrante na Gauteng om in 'n hoë of medium inkomste groep eerder as lae inkomste groep te val word ook bereken en vergelyk met die nie-migrante in Limpopo. Ruimtelike statistiese metodes is toegepas om te bepaal of daar enige ruimtelike groeperings van Limpopo migrante in Gauteng voorkom. Die resultate toon dat migrante na Gauteng 'n beter arbeidsmark uitkoms het in vergelyking met nie-migrante in Limpopo, maar dat die gaping tussen migrante en nie-immigrante afgeneem het tussen 2001 en 2011. Die resultate toon ook dat die migrante ‘n groter waarskynlikheid het om in ‘n hoë inkomste groep te val in vergelyking met die nie-migrante, maar dat die gaping besig is om te vernou. Daar is ‘n statistiese beduidende groepering van migrante uit Limopo in die Tshwane munisipaliteit en die noordelike dele van Ekurhuleni.

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