South African Centre for Epidemiological Modelling and Analysis (SACEMA)
The South African Centre for Epidemiological Modelling and Analysis (SACEMA) is a national research centre established under the Centre of Excellence programme of the Department of Science and Technology and the National Research Foundation. The Centre focuses on research in quantitative modelling of the spatial and temporal patterns of disease. The immediate aim of the research is to understand and predict the development of various diseases, and thereby to provide advice on how best to combat them. Our research focuses on issues pertaining to HIV, TB and malaria, although not to the exclusion of other epidemiological problems.
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Systematic review of statistically-derived models of immunological response in HIV-infected adults on antiretroviral therapy in Sub-Saharan Africa
(Public Library of Science, 2017-02-15)Introduction: In Sub-Saharan African (SSA) resource limited settings, Cluster of Differentiation 4 (CD4) counts continue to be used for clinical decision making in antiretroviral therapy (ART). Here, HIV-infected people ...
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Comparison of cross-sectional HIV incidence assay results from dried blood spots and plasma
(Public Library of Science, 2017-02-23)Background: Assays have been developed for cross-sectional HIV incidence estimation using plasma samples. Large scale surveillance programs are planned using dried blood spot (DBS) specimens for incidence assessment. ...
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Is Zimbabwe ready to transition from anonymous unlinked sero-surveillance to using prevention of mother to child transmission of HIV (PMTCT) program data for HIV surveillance? : results of PMTCT utility study, 2012
(BioMed Central, 2016-02-29)Background: Prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV (PMTCT) programs collect socio-demographic and HIV testing information similar to that collected by unlinked anonymous testing sero-surveillance (UAT) in ...
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Strengthening HIV surveillance in the antiretroviral therapy era : rationale and design of a longitudinal study to monitor HIV prevalence and incidence in the uMgungundlovu District, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa
(BioMed Central, 2015)Background: South Africa has over 6,000,000 HIV infected individuals and the province of KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) is the most severely affected. As public health initiatives to better control the HIV epidemic are implemented, ...
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The effect of sexually transmitted co-infections on HIV viral load amongst individuals on antiretroviral therapy : a systematic review and meta-analysis
(BioMed Central, 2015-06)Background: Antiretroviral therapy (ART) markedly reduces HIV transmission, and testing and treatment programs have been advocated as a method for decreasing transmission at the population level. Little is known, ...
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Concurrent partnerships in Cape Town, South Africa : race and sex differences in prevalence and duration of overlap
(International AIDS Society, 2015-02)Introduction: Concurrent partnerships (CPs) have been suggested as a risk factor for transmitting HIV, but their impact on the epidemic depends upon how prevalent they are in populations, the average number of CPs an ...
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Optimal strategies for controlling riverine Tsetse Flies using targets : a modelling study
(Public Library of Science, 2015-03)Background: Tsetse flies occur in much of sub-Saharan Africa where they transmit the trypanosomes that cause the diseases of sleeping sickness in humans and nagana in livestock. One of the most economical and effective ...
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Tsetse control and Gambian sleeping sickness; implications for control strategy
(Public Library of Science, 2015-08)Background: Gambian sleeping sickness (human African trypanosomiasis, HAT) outbreaks are brought under control by case detection and treatment although it is recognised that this typically only reaches about 75% of the ...
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Spatial heterogeneity in projected leprosy trends in India
(BioMed Central, 2015-10-22)Background: Leprosy is caused by infection with Mycobacterium leprae and is characterized by peripheral nerve damage and skin lesions. The disease is classified into paucibacillary (PB) and multibacillary (MB) leprosy. ...
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Recalibration of the limiting antigen avidity EIA to determine mean duration of recent infection in divergent HIV-1 subtypes
(Public Library of Science, 2015)Background: Mean duration of recent infection (MDRI) and misclassification of long-term HIV-1 infections, as proportion false recent (PFR), are critical parameters for laboratory-based assays for estimating HIV-1 ...
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The risk of tuberculosis reinfection soon after cure of a first disease episode is extremely high in a hyperendemic community
(Public Library of Science, 2015)Elevated rates of reinfection tuberculosis in various hyperendemic regions have been reported and, in particular, it has been shown that in a high-incidence setting near Cape Town, South Africa, the rate of reinfection ...
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The association between timing of initiation of antenatal care and stillbirths : a retrospective cohort study of pregnant women in Cape Town, South Africa
(BioMed Central, 2014-06-13)Background There is renewed interest in stillbirth prevention for lower-middle income countries. Early initiation of and properly timed antenatal care (ANC) is thought to reduce the risk of many adverse birth outcomes. ...
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Efficacy of electrocuting devices to catch tsetse flies (Glossinidae) and other diptera
(PLoS, 2015-10)Background: The behaviour of insect vectors has an important bearing on the epidemiology of the diseases they transmit, and on the opportunities for vector control. Two sorts of electrocuting device have been particularly ...
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Pyrethroid treatment of cattle for tsetse control : reducing its impact on dung fauna
(PLoS, 2015-03)Background: African trypansomiases of humans and animals can be controlled by attacking the vectors, various species of tsetse fly. Treatment of cattle with pyrethroids to kill tsetse as they feed is the most cost-effective ...
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Factors affecting the propensity of tsetse flies to enter houses and attack humans inside : increased risk of sleeping sickness in warmer climates
(PLoS, 2013-04)Background: Sleeping sickness, or human African trypanosomiasis, is caused by two species of Trypanosoma brucei that are transmitted to humans by tsetse flies (Glossina spp.) when these insects take a bloodmeal. It is ...
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Artificial warthog burrows used to sample adult and immature tsetse (Glossina spp) in the Zambezi Valley of Zimbabwe
(PLoS, 2015-03)Background: The biology of adult tsetse (Glossina spp), vectors of trypanosomiasis in Africa, has been extensively studied – but little is known about larviposition in the field. Methodology/Principal Findings: In ...
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Explaining the host-finding behavior of blood-sucking insects : computerized simulation of the effects of habitat geometry on tsetse fly movement
(PLoS, 2014-06)Background: Male and female tsetse flies feed exclusively on vertebrate blood. While doing so they can transmit the diseases of sleeping sickness in humans and nagana in domestic stock. Knowledge of the host-orientated ...
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Incidence of TB and HIV in prospectively followed household contacts of TB index patients in South Africa
(PLoS, 2014-04)Objective: To report the incidence rates of TB and HIV in household contacts of index patients diagnosed with TB. Design: A prospective cohort study in the Matlosana sub-district of North West Province, South Africa. Methods: ...
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Effectiveness of a peer-led HIV prevention intervention in secondary schools in Rwanda : results from a non-randomized controlled trial
(BioMed Central, 2012-09)While the HIV epidemic is levelling off in sub-Saharan Africa, it remains at an unacceptably high level. Young people aged 15-24 years remain particularly vulnerable, resulting in a regional HIV prevalence of 1.4% in young ...
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A theoretical model for substance abuse in the presence of treatment
(Academy of Science of South Africa, 2012-03-16)The production and use of addictive stimulants has been a major problem in South Africa. Although research has shown increased demand for drug abuse treatment, the actual size of the drug-abusing population remains unknown. ...
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Indoor social networks in a South African township : potential contribution of location to tuberculosis transmission
(Public Library of Science, 2012-06-29)Background We hypothesized that in South Africa, with a generalized tuberculosis (TB) epidemic, TB infection is predominantly acquired indoors and transmission potential is determined by the number and duration of social ...
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Evaluating audio computer assisted self-interviews in urban south African communities : evidence for good suitability and reduced social desirability bias of a cross-sectional survey on sexual behaviour
(BioMed Central, 2013-01)Abstract: Efficient HIV prevention requires accurate identification of individuals with risky sexual behaviour. However, self-reported data from sexual behaviour surveys are prone to social desirability bias (SDB). Audio ...
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BED estimates of HIV incidence : resolving the differences, making things simpler
(PLOS, 2012-01)Objective: Develop a simple method for optimal estimation of HIV incidence using the BED capture enzyme immunoassay. Design: Use existing BED data to estimate mean recency duration, false recency rates and HIV incidence ...
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Expanding ART for treatment and prevention of HIV in South Africa : estimated cost and cost-effectiveness 2011-2050
(PLOS, 2012-02-13)Background: Antiretroviral Treatment (ART) significantly reduces HIV transmission. We conducted a cost-effectiveness analysis of the impact of expanded ART in South Africa. Methods: We model a best case scenario of 90% ...
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A general HIV incidence inference scheme based on likelihood of individual level data and a population renewal equation
(PLOS, 2012-09-12)We derive a new method to estimate the age specific incidence of an infection with a differential mortality, using individual level infection status data from successive surveys. The method consists of a) an SI-type model ...
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How should we best estimate the mean recency duration for the BED method?
(PLOS, 2012-11-16)BED estimates of HIV incidence from cross-sectional surveys are obtained by restricting, to fixed time T, the period over which incidence is estimated. The appropriate mean recency duration (VT) then refers to the time ...
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Antiretroviral therapy for prevention of tuberculosis in adults with HIV : a systematic review and Meta-Analysis
(Public Library of Science, 2012-07)Background: Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection is the strongest risk factor for developing tuberculosis and has fuelled its resurgence, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2010, there were an estimated 1.1 ...
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Towards an early warning system for Rhodesian sleeping sickness in Savannah Areas : man-like traps for tsetse flies
(Public Library of Science, 2012-12)Background: In the savannahs of East and Southern Africa, tsetse flies (Glossina spp.) transmit Trypanosoma brucei rhodesiense which causes Rhodesian sleeping sickness, the zoonotic form of human African trypanosomiasis. ...
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Where, when and why do tsetse contact humans? Answers from studies in a National Park of Zimbabwe
(PLoS, 2012-08)Background: Sleeping sickness, also called human African trypanosomiasis, is transmitted by the tsetse, a blood-sucking fly confined to sub-Saharan Africa. The form of the disease in West and Central Africa is carried ...
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Improving the cost-effectiveness of artificial visual baits for controlling the tsetse fly glossina fuscipes fuscipes
(Public Library of Science, 2009-07)Tsetse flies, which transmit sleeping sickness to humans and nagana to cattle, are commonly controlled by stationary artificial baits consisting of traps or insecticide-treated screens known as targets. In Kenya the use ...
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