The South African liquid fuels market : yesterday, today and tomorrow

Swart, C. J. (2010-03)

Thesis (MBA (Business Management))--University of Stellenbosch, 2010.


ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The title of the study provides a summary of the content that is explored: The South African Liquid Fuels Market: Yesterday, Today and Tomorrow. A period spanning nearly 140 years is covered from 1882 to 2020. In “Yesterday”, the history of liquid fuels in South Africa is explored to understand the development of the liquid fuels market. The periods pre-1954, post-1954 and post-2003 are discussed. The period post-1954 is important due to the establishment of a highly developed crude oil refining and synthetic fuel production capability in South Africa. A section is also included to explain the international oil market because of the direct impact of crude oil and international oil prices on the South African liquid fuels market. “Today” explains the fuel price and demand and supply dynamics. The major role players in the liquid fuel market that shape the market are discussed. Government is actively involved in the market through the Department of Minerals and Energy and associated institutions, the CEF Group and Nersa. The South African Petroleum Association represents the seven largest oil companies in South Africa. An overview is provided of these seven companies and their operations in South Africa. In “Tomorrow”, international developments and domestic issues that will influence the liquid fuels market in the period 2010 to 2020 are identified. The future oil price and related issues of “peak oil” and fuel alternative vehicles have the ability to change the oil landscape dramatically. On the domestic side, the future petrol and diesel supply and demand balance are discussed in detail. The impact of the South African government on the market through clean fuel specifications and possible fuel price deregulation is also highlighted. It is clear from the study that historical as well as current supply and demand factors indicate that the South African liquid fuels market will continue to be a growth market that will be influenced by international oil market developments and domestic factors in the period 2010 to 2020.

AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die titel van die studie verskaf ‘n opsomming van die inhoud wat gedek word: Die Suid-Afrikaanse Brandstof Mark: Gister, Vandag en Môre. ‘n Periode van bykans 140 jaar word ondersoek wat strek vanaf 1882 tot 2020. “Gister” fokus op die geskiedenis van die brandstofmark in Suid-Afrika. Die periodes voor-1954, na-1954 en na-2003 word bespreek. In die periode na-1954 het Suid-Afrika ‘n indrukwekkende vermoë ontwikkel om ru-olie te raffineer en sintetiese brandstof te vervaardig. Die internasionale olie mark word ook bespreek as gevolg van die direkte impak wat ru-olie en internasionale olie pryse op die Suid-Afrikaanse brandstof mark het. “Vandag” verduidelik die brandstofprys asook vraag en aanbod faktore. Die belangrikste rolspelers wat die mark beinvloed word bespreek. Die regering is aktief betrokke in die mark deur die Deparment van Minerale en Energie en verwante organisasies, naamlik die CEF Groep en Nersa. Die Suid-Afrikaanse Branstofvereeniging verteenwoordig die sewe grootste olie maatskappye in Suid-Afrika. Die sewe maatskappye word bespreek en ‘n oorsig gegee oor hulle belange en bedrywighede in Suid-Afrika. In “Môre” word internasionale gebeure en plaaslike sake wat die brandstofmark in die periode 2010 tot 2020 kan beïnvloed ondersoek. Die toekomstige olie prys en verwante sake soos “spits olie” en voertuie wat van alternatiewe brandstof gebuik maak het die totale olie landskap verander. Op plaaslike vlak word die toekomstige petrol en diesel vraag en aanbod balans noukeurig ondersoek. Die Suid-Afrikaanse regering se impak deur skoon brandstof wetgewing en die moontlike de-regulering van die brandstofprys word beklemtoon. Die studie beklemtoon dat historiese asook huidige vraag en aanbod faktore daarop dui dat die Suid-Afrikaanse branstofmark steeds ‘n groeiende mark in die periode 2010 tot 2020 sal wees, wat beïnvloed sal word deur gebeure op die internasionale olie mark en plaaslike faktore.

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