Evaluation of a hybrid investment model on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange
Thesis (MBA)--Stellenbosch University, 2012.
The study determined whether an investment model on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) incorporating risk, simple rules and simulating a realistic environment could yield statistically significant returns. Further, the study assessed the success of individual trades and profitability compared to a buy-and-hold strategy where funds were switched between shares and a riskless asset. JSE data from 1997 to 2011 were studied using popular technical rules and fundamental indicators integrated into a hybrid investment model. Investments on individual shares were simulated over time and results were analysed by profitability of individual trades and the interaction of technical rules and fundamental data. Parameters were identified that outperformed the All Share Index (ALSI) by 18.6% and exposed the investor to lower risk than the ALSI. Other parameters were also identified that earned a return 137% higher than an ALSI buy-and-hold strategy. However, the identification of a single set of parameters that yielded statistically significant returns at a lower risk than the ALSI, met a priori expectations of outperforming the ALSI and outperformed a buy-and-hold strategy was not identified. Areas of future research included expanding on the technical analysis implemented such as introducing stop-loss rules, and adopting a finer-grained approach to the sectors of companies. Areas to detect further patterns of market inefficiencies were also identified.