A human resource forecast model to support new plants in the oil and gas industry

Smith, Francois (2006-03)

Thesis (MBA)--Stellenbosch University, 2006.

Thesis

ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The shortage of skilled labour in South Africa and also abroad is well documented and has been discussed and debated in various media and on various stages. For the construction industry, the only response is to increase remuneration in order to attract the required resources from a limited pool. At the completion of a project, these resources are returned to the open market until another project has been secured. The cycle of supply and demand then continues and project capital costs increase. Sasol is small player in a very large and fiercely competitive global petrochemical industry. Its globalisation drive focuses on the establishment on new petrochemical facilities based on its ground breaking Gas-to-Liquids technology. Naturally, this requires many skilled and experience people – both in Sasol’s unique production processes as well as people able to commission and start-up a pioneer plant in a remote location. Due to the fact that the labour pool available to Sasol is insufficient to supply in its needs and that Sasol’s capital expansion plan spans a period of more than 10 years, a long-term view on supplying the required labour should be taken. This includes estimating the demand and then training pro-actively in order to supply the right skills at the right time from internal resources. The objective of this study is to do exploratory research into estimating the manpower requirements from an owner perspective from the initiation of construction through to steady state operation of a new petrochemical facility. The research will culminate in a proposed spreadsheet model that can be used in the estimating process.

AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die tekort aan geskoolde arbeid in beide Suid Afrika en die internasionale mark is al by verskeie geleenthede en in vele media bespreek. Die gevolg van die tekort aan geskoolde arbeid is dat die lone wat deur die konstruksie industrie aan voornemende werkers aangebied moet word om hulle dienste te verseker, al hoër word. Met die voltooiing van ’n projek, keer die werkers dan weer terug na die beperkte arbeidspoel totdat ’n volgende werksgeleentheid aangebied word. Die siklus van aanbod en aanvraag herhaal homself en die koste van projekte verhoog. Sasol is ’n klein speler in die baie mededingende internasionale petrochemiese sektor. Sasol se globaliseringsambisies is geskoei op ’n model wat voorsiening maak vir die duplisering van sy kommersieel beproefde Gas-na-Vloeistof tegnologie soos bedryf in Suid Afrika. Uit die aard van die saak vereis so ’n strategie baie geskoolde arbeid – arbeid wat vertroud is met Sasol se gepatenteerde tegnologie sowel as arbeid wat kennis het van die bou en inbedryfstelling van nuwe aanlegte. Die huidige bronne van geskoolde arbeid tot Sasol se beskikking is onvoldoende vir sy huidige en ook toekomstige behoeftes. Sasol se beplande kapitaal projekte strek tot verby 2015 en daarom is ’n langtermyn oplossing noodsaaklik en ook geregverdig. Die langtermyn plan moet onder meer voorsiening maak vir ’n beraming van die behoefte en dan proaktiewe opleiding inisieer wat die regte tipe geskoolde arbeid op die gegewe tyd sal kan aflewer. Die oogmerk van die studie is om eksploratiewe navorsing te doen in die beraming van mannekrag behoeftes vir die toekomstige eienaar vanaf die inisiëring van konstruksie vir ’n nuwe petrochemiese aanleg tot by bestendige bedryf. Die navorsing sal beslag vind in ’n sigblad model wat as instrument gebruik kan word om die beraming van mannekrag behoeftes te vergemaklik.

Please refer to this item in SUNScholar by using the following persistent URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/85162
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