Monetary union in Africa : using trade patterns to create interim country groupings

Mather, Sandra (2008-12)

Thesis (MBA)--Stellenbosch University, 2008.

Thesis

ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The ultimate goal of the African Union is full political and economic integration, which includes a monetary union with a common currency for all member states of the African Union. This monetary integration is proposed to take place in two stages: firstly, through five regions, and secondly, through complete integration. This report examines current trade data for member states of the African Union using k means duster analysis to group countries according to trade patterns. Analysis was performed for the actual US dollar value of trade, as well as considering only the presence or absence of trade. There are limitations to the data collected: firstly, they are annual data, which masks fluctuations in trade due to economic conditions or political developments. Secondly, they are subject to missing or under-reported values. The focus of this research report was to consider trade figures for the first time, and the limitations were considered acceptable in view of the aim of achieving a first approximation of results. When considering all solutions, there are overlaps between clusters, but no definite patterns emerge that are common to all analyses. Considering the F and Euclidean distances of all solutions, the best appears to be that for clusters derived from analysing trade figures between Africa and its trading partners outside Africa. Further analysis of this solution failed to demonstrate viable clusters. The final conclusion to be made from this analysis is that k means clustering of trade figures for member states of the African Union does not generate viable clusters that could be used as steps towards full monetary integration in Africa. Given this conclusion it is recommended that the stepwise progression towards full monetary integration be considered by utilising existing economic arrangements, i.e. by using the five Regional Economic Communities proposed by the African Union.

AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die uiteindelike doel van die Afrika-unie is volledige politieke en ekonomiese integrasie, wat 'n monetere unie met 'n gemeenskaplike geldeenheid vir al die lidstate van die Afrika-unie insluit. Hierdie monetere integrasie word in twee stadiums beoog: eers deur vyf streke, en daarna deur volledige integrasie. Hierdie verslag ondersoek die huidige handelsdata vir lidstate van die Afrika-unie deur k gemiddelde trosanalise te gebruik om lande volgens handelspatrone te groepeer. 'n Analise is ook gedoen van die werklike VS-dollarwaarde van handel, en deur die aanwesigheid of afwesigheid van handel in aanmerking te neem. Daar is beperkings op die data wat ingesamel is: eerstens is dit jaarlikse data, wat skommelings in handel as gevolg van ekonomiese toestande of politieke ontwikkelings verberg. Tweedens is hulle onderworpe aan ontbrekende of ondergerapporteerde waardes. Die fokus van hierdie navorsingsverslag was dus om handelsyfers vir die eerste keer te oorweeg, en die beperkings is aanvaarbaar beskou in die lig van die doel om 'n eerste benadering van resultate te verkry. Wanneer aile oplossings oorweeg word, is daar oorvleueling tussen trosse, maar geen definitiewe patrone ontstaan wat vir alle analises geld nie. Wanneer die F- en Euklidiese afstande van alle oplossings oorweeg word, lyk dit asof die beste die trosse is wat verkry is uit die analise van handelsyfers tussen Afrika en sy handelsvennote buite Afrika. Verdere analise van hierdie oplossing het nie lewensvatbare trosse aangedui nie. Die finale gevolgtrekking wat uit hierdie analise gemaak kan word, is dat k gemidderde trosvorming van handelsyfers vir lidstate van die Afrika-unie nie lewensvatbare trosse genereer wat gebruik kan word as stappe in die rigting van volledige monetere integrasie in Afrika nie. Met die oog op hierdie gevolgtrekking word daar aanbeveel dat die stapsgewyse vordering na volledige monetere integrasie oorweeg moet word deur bestaande ekonomiese reelings te gebruik, d.w.s. deur die vyf Streeksekonomiese Gemeenskappe te gebruik wat deur die Afrika-unie voorgestel is.

Please refer to this item in SUNScholar by using the following persistent URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/8327
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