Can a technical analysis-based trading strategy outperform a naive buy-hold strategy

Gross, Peter (2008-12)

Thesis (MBA)--Stellenbosch University, 2008.

Thesis

ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Empirical research is done to determine whether trading strategies based on technical analysis can outperform a naive buy-and-hold strategy. A study is made of classical and contemporary academic literature. The central investigation is threefold. Firstly, the degree of randomness of a chosen basket of securities is determined vis-a-vis the Random Walk Hypothesis. Secondly, the effectiveness of stop loss orders is assessed. Lastly, a collection of chosen trading strategies is back-tested on security data ranging over 20 years. Performance of these systems is measured on net average and risk-adjusted gains in the absence of transaction and taxation costs. The finding of this report is that, in the absence of these costs, certain technical trading strategies can indeed outperform a buy-and-hold strategy. Although end-of-day data is used throughout the study, the techniques can also be applied to intra-day trading.

AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Empiriese navorsing is gedoen om te bepaal of handelstrategiee wat op tegniese ontleding gebaseer is, beter kan presteer as 'n klassieke konserwatiewe koop-en-hou-strategie. Omvattende literatuurstudie is gedoen van klassieke en kontemporere literatuur, en die kruks van die navorsing is drieledig. Eerstens word die toevalligheidsgraad van 'n gekose aandelepakket ten opsigte van die hipotese van ewekansigce koersbeweging bepaal. Tweedens word die effektiwiteit van "stop-verlies" opdragte ontleed en laastens word 'n versameling historiese handelstrategiee getoets met die laaste 20 jaar se aandeledata. Die prestasie van die onledingstelsels word gemeet aan die hand van die netto gemiddelde en risiko aangepaste opbrengste met uitsluiting van die transaksie en belasting kostes. Die bevinding van die studie is dat met uitsluiting van die transakie en belasting kostes, die gebruik van tegniese ontledings inderdaad hoer opbrengste lewer as die klassieke koop-en-hou strategie. Alhoewel dag sluitingsdata deurlopend vir die studie gebruik was, kan die tegnieke ook op intradag data toegepas word.

Please refer to this item in SUNScholar by using the following persistent URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/8326
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