Olie : hoop of wanhoop vir Angola?

Du Toit, Francois Stephanus (2007-12)

Thesis (MBA (Business Management))--University of Stellenbosch, 2007.

Thesis

ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The increasing global demand for and dependency on oil provides tremendous opportunities for oil-producing countries. Supported by the unprecedented economic growth in developing countries such as China and India, the global demand for oil is estimated to increase by 50% from the present 83 million barrels a day to 120 million barrels a day by 2025. This increased demand for oil provides the African oil industry with vast possibilities. Countries such as Angola, Cameroon and Nigeria are already experiencing a large increase in direct foreign investment, a higher Gross National Product en more favourable balance of trade. The logical conclusion from the abovementioned advantages of oil-rich countries would seem to imply a sharp rise in the standard of living for the citizens of these countries in the recent past. The purpose of this report is to determine if Angola, as the world’s fastest growing oil-producer in terms of increased production of barrels per day, offers its citizens an economically prosperous future. Points highlighted by the report include the inevitable problems caused by Angola’s colonial history and the recent twenty seven year long civil war. Angola faces internal and external problems caused by • “Dutch Disease” • Fluctuating oil prices • Poor governance • Institutional capacity China now plays an important if somewhat controversial role in Angola’s prosperity by providing finance and aid with less stringent conditions than Angola’s traditional sources. With Chinese aid Angola is now undertaking the rebuilding of its infrastructure which is essential to counteract the negative aspects of the country’s dependency on oil resource exploitation. There is still significant corruption within the oil industry and it seems clear that any attempts by international companies and non-governmental organisations to counteract the problem will have limited success unless the governments and all concerned parties take note of and accept new ethical and socially responsible codes of behaviour. Africa however is entering a new phase of accepting responsibility for its own internal problems. The democratisation of the continent is setting new standards for the fight against corruption. Finally the report indicates that there are lessons to be learned from other countries about using income from natural resources to benefit future generations. Countries such as Botswana (diamonds) and Norway (oil) use investment funds to limit their dependence on the resources and to counteract the effect of fluctuating prices of the commodities. Bearing in mind the above considerations, Angola cannot be expected to achieve success overnight, but the country has all that is required to eventually assume its rightful position on the continent and become another African economic success story.

AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die wêreld se toenemende vraag na- en afhanklikheid van olie bied tans geweldige geleenthede vir olie-produserende lande. Daar word beraam dat die wêreldwye vraag na olie, gesteun deur ongekende ekonomiese groei in ontwikkelende lande soos China en Indië, met meer as 50% van die huidige vlak van 83 miljoen vate per dag teen 2025 tot 120 miljoen vate per dag sal toeneem. Die moontlikhede wat hierdie verhoogde vraag vir die oliebedryf in Afrika bied, is legio. Lande soos Angola, Kameroen en Nigerië ondervind reeds ʼn groot toename in direkte buitelandse investering, ’n verhoging in bruto binnelandse produk en gunstiger handelsbalanse. In die lig van bogenoemde voordele vir lande wat ryk is aan oliehulpbronne, sou die logiese afleiding wees dat die lewenstandaard van die burgers van hierdie lande die afgelope paar jaar drasties moes verhoog het. Hierdie verslag het dit ten doel om te sien of Angola, wat die wêreld se vinnigs groeiende olieprodusent in terme van verhoogde produksie in vate per dag is, werklik sy burgers ekonomiese voorspoed vir die toekoms bied. Belangrike punte wat in die verslag na vore kom, is die onvermydelike probleme waarmee Angola te kampe het weens die land se historiese agtergrond en die onlangse burgeroorlog van sewe-en-twintig jaar. Interne en eksterne probleme wat Angola teister is die gevolge van • “Dutch Disease” • Skommelende oliepryse • Swak staatsbestuur • Institusionele kapasiteit China is ’n nuwe, hoewel ietwat kontroversiële, faktor in Angola se vooruitgang en stel minder beperkende voorwaardes as Angola se tradisionele bronne vir finansiering en hulpverlening. Met Chinese hulp is Angola nou besig met die heropbou van sy infrastruktuur, wat noodsaaklik is as hy die negatiewe aspekte van die land se afhanlikheid van olie-ontginning wil afskud. Korrupsie binne die oliebedryf is egter nog beduidend en dit is duidelik dat die pogings van internasionale maatskappye en nie-regeringsorganisasies om die probleem die hoof te bied, beperk sal bly tensy die regerings en alle belanghebbende partye kennis neem van nuwe etiese en sosiaal verantwoordelike optredes en dit aanvaar. Afrika gaan deur ’n nuwe fase waar die vasteland self verantwoordelikheid aanvaar vir sy interne probleme. Die demokratisering van die vasteland behels die aanvaarding van nuwe standaarde ten opsigte van die bekamping van korrupsie. Ten slotte noem die verslag dat daar lesse te leer is van ander lande wat hul inkomste uit hulpbron-ontginning tot voordeel van toekomstige geslagte aanwend. Lande soos Botswana (diamante) en Noorweë (olie) maak gebruik van beleggingsfondse om die land se afhanklikheid van die hulpbron te beperk en om die uitwerking van prysskommelings van die kommoditeit teen te werk. Met inagneming van bogenoemde oorwegings kan nie verwag word dat Angola oornag ekonomiese sukses sal behaal nie, maar die land het alles wat nodig is om mettertyd sy regmatige plek op die vasteland in te neem en na vore te tree as nog ’n ekonomiese suksesverhaal uit Afrika.

Please refer to this item in SUNScholar by using the following persistent URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/824
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