A quantitative analysis of supply response in the Namibian mutton industry

Van Wyk, D. N. ; Treurnicht, N. F. (2012-05)

The original publication is available at http://sajie.journals.ac.za

CITATION: Van Wyk, D. N. & Treurnicht, N. F. 2012. A quantitative analysis of supply response in the Namibian mutton industry. South African Journal of Industrial Engineering, 23(1):202-215, doi:10.7166/23-1-231.

Article

Agricultural activities in Namibia contribute 5.5% of Namibia’s GDP, while 70% of the population relies on agriculture for employment and day-to-day living. The purpose of this study is to investigate the relationships between the various price and non-price factors contributing to the supply dynamics within the mutton industry in Namibia. The autoregressive distributed lag approach to co-integration was used to determine the longrun and short-run supply response elasticities between economic and climatology factors on time-series data. Supply shifters showed significant short-run and long-run elasticities with regard to the mutton produced. Results also revealed that the system takes nearly two months to recover to the long-run supply equilibrium, should any disturbances occur within the supply system.

Landbou-aktiwiteite in Namibië dra 5.5% by tot die nasionale Bruto Binnelandse Produk, in ’n land waar meer as 70% van die bevolking afhanklik is van landbou om ’n bestaan te kan maak. Die doel van hierdie studie is om die verwantskappe te ondersoek tussen verskeie prys- en nie-prys-faktore wat bydra tot die aanboddinamika van die skaapvleisbedryf. ’n Outoregressie verspreide sloering benadering tot ko-integrasie is gebruik om die langtermyn en korttermyn elastisitiete tussen ekonomie- en klimaatfaktore vir skaapvleisaanbod te bepaal. Resultate het gewys dat aanbodfaktore betekenisvolle kort- en langtermyn elastisiteite toon. Resultate het ook getoon dat die sisteem twee maande neem om te herstel na die langtermyn aanbodekwilibruim, sou daar enige drastiese veranderings gebeur in die stelsel.

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