Scenario planning 2020 for Southern African economic empowerment : can Southern Africa leapfrog from an agrarian to a knowledge economy

Siwale, Mengo (2007-12)

Thesis (MBA (Business Management))--University of Stellenbosch, 2007.

Thesis

ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The central question that this research report attempts to answer is how southern African countries can leapfrog from agrarian to knowledge-based economies. There is no single answer to this question, but rather a complex solution. This can best be answered using scenario planning; hence the title 'Scenario planning 2020 for southern African economic empowerment'. Scenario planning is not the only way of answering the central question, but is the one preferred by the author. The scenario-building process helps to identify a number of key forces or factors that impact on the region. Culture and openness were top of the list with regard to importance and uncertainty in answering the central question. Using culture and openness, the author was able to develop a matrix with four quadrants. With these quadrants the author developed four plausible futures for the region, using the other forces identified and listed as characters, guided by the technique developed by experts in the field of scenario planning. The scenario process gives insightful information that helps one appreciate the dynamic forces, both positive and negative, and how they interact with each other to translate into an outcome - be it a desirable or undesirable outcome. There is a strong business case for recognising and appreciating the existence of culture and that this is the reason why people (and their culture) cannot be separated from the way of business. People have a way of life and, in order to do business with them, their culture must be understood.

AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die sentrale vraag wat hierdie navorsingsverslag probeer beantwoord, is hoe lande in Suider Afrika die sprong van landbou- tot kennis-gebaseerde ekonomiee kan bewerkstellig. Daar is geen enkel-antwoord tot hierdie vraag nie, maar eerder 'n komplekse oplossing. Dit kan die beste beantwoord word deur scenariobeplanning; daarom die titel 'Scenario planning 2020 for Southern African economic empowerment. Scenario-beplanning is nie die enigste wyse om die sentrale vraag te beantwoord nie, maar is die een wat deur die skrywer verkies word. Die scenariobouproses help om 'n aantal sleutelkragte of -faktore te identifiseer wat 'n impak op die streek het. Kultuur en openheid was bo aan die lys met betrekking tot belangrikheid en onsekerheid. Met die gebruik van kultuur en openheid, was dit vir die skrywer moontlik om 'n matriks te ontwikkel met vier kwadrante. Met hierdie kwadrante het die skrywer vier geloofwaardige toekomsbeelde vir die streek ontwikkel, met gebruikmaking van die ander kragte wat geldentifiseer en gelys is as karakters, gelei deur die tegniek deur kenners ontwikkel in die veld van scenariobeplanning. Die scenarioproses hied insig wat 'n mens help om die dinamiese kragte te waardeer, positief sowel as negatief, en hoe hulle met mekaar in wisselwerking is om'n uitslag te bewerkstellig - wenslik of nie-wenslik. Daar is 'n sterk saak uit te maak vir sakeondememings om herkenning en waardering te gee vir die bestaan van kultuur en dat dit die rede is waarom mense (en bulle kultuur) nie geskei kan word van die wyse waarop sakebelange bedryf word nie. Mense het 'n leefwyse en om sake met hulle te bedryf, moet hul kultuur verstaan word.

Please refer to this item in SUNScholar by using the following persistent URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/5770
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