The use of the Brink model to assess Mozambique's political risk before and after major project investments

Makgatho, Mathane (2008-12)

Thesis (MDF (Development Finance))--Stellenbosch University, 2008.

Thesis

ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Mozambique managed to attract a lot of foreign direct investment despite it being one of the poorest countries in the world and after it has been through a devastating 17 year civil war. GOP per capita in 1995 was about US$ 144 which was one of the lowest in the world. The country was faced with enormous challenges and risks in terms of both country and political risk. Major risks were associated with investment in that country because of prolonged civil war with no record of macro-economic stability. Despite these huge challenges, Mozambique managed to attract a lot of investment with Mozal 1 being the first big project post civil war. This paper analyses and quantifies where Mozambique was before and after mega projects. This is done by looking at where Mozambique was before Mozal 1 being the first mega project in the country post civil war. The analysis is in terms of political risk as it relates to cross border transactions with specific reference to a number of political risk indicators as suggested by Brink (2004) that prevailed and how the projects were structured to minimize risk. A political risk rating is developed for 1995 and 2005 using the Brink model to check if the project did improve the country's economic health.

AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Mosambiek het daarin geslaag om grootskaalse direkte buitelandse investering te lok ten spyte van sy status as een van die wereld se armste lande en die verwoestende burgeroorlog wat 17 jaar geduur het. Die BBP per capita was ongeveer US$ 144 in 1995, wat dit een van die laagstes in die wereld gemaak het. Die land het enorme uitdagings en risiko's in die gesig gestaar in terme van die land en die politiek. Die hoofrisiko's het met investering verband gehou vanwee die langdurige burgeroorlog en geen makro-ekonomiese stabiliteit in die land se verlede nie. Ondanks hierdie reuse uitdagings het Mosambiek daarin geslaag om baie investering te lok, waarvan Mozal 1 die eerste megaprojek na die burgeroorlog was. Hierdie tesis analiseer en kwantifiseer Mosambiek se posisie voor en na megaprojekte. Dit is gedoen deur te kyk na hoe Mosambiek daar uitgesien het voor Mozal 1. Die analise is in terme van die verband tussen politieke risiko en oorgrenstransaksies gedoen. Daar word spesifiek verwys na 'n aantal aanwysers van politieke risiko, soos voorgestel deur Brink (2004), wat geheers het en hoe projekte gestruktureer is om risiko te verminder. 'n Gradering van politieke risiko is vir 1995 en 2005 aan die hand van Brink se model ontwikkel om te kontroleer of die projek die land se ekonomiese gesondheid verbeter het.

Please refer to this item in SUNScholar by using the following persistent URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/5542
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