Ontleding van die intertemporale en kruissektorale verdelingseienskappe van kontantvloeiverhoudings vir nywerheidsmaatskappye : resultate van die Johannesburgse Effektebeurs (1975-1993)

Groenewald, Jakobus Johannes (1995-03)

Thesis (MBA)--Universiteit van Stellenbosch, 1995.

Thesis

ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Traditional financial ratios are used by different analysts to predict and evaluate various elements of a company. However, such ratios all suffer from the basic limitation of accrual-based accounting, hence the perception that cash flow ratios may be more suitable and possibly even more appropriate to evaluate companies. Most of these applications employ parametric statistical procedures of which the validity partly depends on the underlying distributional properties of the ratio involved. This study project is an evaluation of the underlying distributional properties of forty seven cash flow ratios based on the published annual results of 350 industrial companies, listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange for the period 1975 to 1993. As an initial test, the results of the ratios were subject to the null-hypothesis of normality as reflected by the p-values of the chi - square and Kolmogorov-Smirnov tests respectively . Secondly, the study project attempted to give an indication of the underlying distributional properties by comparing the average with the median of the various cash flow ratios. The first evaluation was done for each ratio. after the data was aggregated, for both the various divisions and over all the financial periods to evaluate what is referred to as the sector as a whole. The results of this evaluation clearly indicate that the underlying distributional properties are definitely not normally distributed. However, the lack of normality may be founded in either the lack of homogeneity between the various divisions. or due to the aggregation of the various financial periods . A second evaluation was done on the individual ratios for each financial period. Although the different years lead to slightly different results it is still apparent that the null-hypothesis of normality for the majority of ratios are being rejected, especially consistent results to this effect were found for the period 1988 to 1993. A third and final evaluation was done on all the different ratios for the individual divisions. Again the results for the different divisions vary, but once again it ;s apparent that the null-hypothesis of normality is being rejected for the vast majority of the ratios . In this regard the results of specifically divisions industrial holding (15), food (25), engineering (28) and electronics (29) are particularly consistent. The lack of normality in the sector analysis may indicate the presence of specific division relevant characteristics, while the results of the intertemporal evaluation indicate that the distributional properties approximate normality by aggregation over time . The analysis also proves beyond any doubt that irrespective of whether disaggregation is done over either financial periods or between the different divisions, ratios 02, 03, 06, 15, 16 and 17 are positive skewely distributed . Accordingly, ratios 13 and 27 are negative skewely distributed . If one has to advise a researcher or practitioner to whom an underlying normal distribution of a cash flow ratio is important, one would probably advise in the first instance to disaggregate over time, as a second app roach to disaggregate over divisions, but never to treat the industrial sector as a pooled sample.

AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Tradisionele finansiele verhoudings word deur verskeie markontleders vir verskillende voorspellings aangewend . Aangesien die verhoudings almal onderworpe is aan die beperking van opgelope rekeningkundige waarde word kontantvloeiverhoudings voorgehou as 'n nuttiger en moontlik selfs doeltreffender metode om ondernemings te evalueer. In die meeste van die toepassings word parametriese statistiese prosedures gebruik, waarvan die geldigheid gedeeltelik berus op die onderliggende verdelingseienskappe van die verhoudings. Die werkstuk is 'n studie van die onderliggende verde' ingseienskappe van sewe-en-veertig kontantvloeiverhoudings S005 jaarliks vir die tydperke 1975 tot 1993 gepubliseer is in die finansie1e verslae van 350 maatskappye wat genoteer is in die nywerheidsektor van die Johannesburgse Effektebeurs. In die verband is die resultate van die verhoudings eerstens onderwerp aan die nulhipotese van normaliteit deur dit te evalueer aan die hand van die p-waarde van sowel die chi-kwadraat- as Kolmogorov-Smirnovtoetse. Vervolgens dui die werkstuk die onderliggende verdeling aan, deur die gemiddeld en mediaan van die kontantvloeiverhoudings te vergelyk. Vir die eerste evaluasie is alle verhoudings oar jie verskillende finansiele tydperke en van die verskillende afdelings saamgevoeg am die sektor in die geheel te eva1ueer. Vol gens die evaluasie is die onderliggende verde1ing van die verhoudings nie normaal nie. Oit mag moontlik logies verklaar word deur die heterogeniteit van die verskil1ende afde1ings, of weens die samevoeging van die resultate oar verskillende finansiele tydperke. Tweedens is die onderskeie finans;ele tydperke afsonder1ik ont1eed . A1 het die resultate van die onderskeie termyne effens verskil, is dit duidelik dat die nulhipotese van normaliteit by die oorgrotte meerderheid van verhoud ings beslis verwerp moet word. Dit is interessant dat in die resu1tate van spesifiek 1988 tot 1993 die hipotese absoluut konsekwent verwerp word. laastens is die verhoudings afsonderlik vir elk van die onderskeie afdelings ontleed. Weereens het die resultate van die onderskeie afdelings verskil, maar dit was oak weer duidelik dat die oor9rote meerderheid van verhoudings die nulhipotese van normaliteit verwerp . In die verband was veral die resultate van die afdelings nywerheids beherend (15), voedsel (25). ingenieurswese (28) en elektronika (29) merkwaardig konsekwent. Die gebrek aan normaliteit tussen die verskillende afdelings mag maontlik aantoon dat sekere eienskappe, eie aan die afdeling, die verdelingseienskappe beinvloed . Die resultate van die intertemporale studie toon beslis dat normaliteit benaderd word indien verhoudings oar tyd saamgevaeg word. Wat die ontleding ook bo alle twyfel bewys is dat die verhoudings 02, 03, 06, 15, 16 en 17 vir die sektor as 'n geheel, die intertemporale- en die kruissektorale-ontledings konsekwent onderliggend positief skeef verdee1 is. Verhoudings 13 en 27 is egter onderliggend negatief skeef verdeel. Aanbevelings rakende die onderliggende verdeling van kontantvloeiverhoudings is beslis om eerstens verskillende finansiele tydperke te onderskei en tweedens die verskillende afdelings. maar beslis om nie die nywerheidsektor as 'n geheel te evalueer nie.

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