A model to forecast the impact of road accessibility on the economic development potential of industrial land in urban areas

Botes, Francois Jacobus (2003)

Dissertation (PhD)--Stellenbosch University, 2003.

Thesis

ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The dissertation firstly outlines the findings of recent studies that have recorded the relationship between transport and economic development. This includes the assessment of a number of economic evaluation techniques that are available to predict the impact of improvements in transport on economic development. An historic overview is provided of the role that transport has played in the development of Cape Town. Due to the fact that the phases of development followed international development trends, it is concluded that development in Cape Town will follow the global trend. A number of economic growth scenarios are developed for Cape Town to assess how the City will be able to cope with the socio-demographic challenges facing it in the next century. The relationship between land price and the economic development potential of land is outlined, as are the factors that determine industrial land price, namely the demand and supply of industrial land. The process of determining the economic value of industrial land is described. This includes the collection and analysis of occupation rent of industrial townships in Cape Town, the calculation of property values and the calculation of the shadow price of land. A procedure of determining accessibility to industrial townships in Cape Town was developed. Firstly, accessibility was defined in broad terms. This was followed by a discussion of each of the elements of accessibility namely proximity, access and mobility in order to understand the factors that may impact on the level of accessibility. Finally, the level of accessibility is quantified in terms of generalised cost. A regression analysis was undertaken to establish a statistical relationship between the economic value of industrial land and accessibility to the industrial townships. The development of a numerical model was based on the regression analyses to forecast changes in industrial land price given a change in accessibility. The model was then tested on a case study. The main conclusions of the study are as follows: (a) The accessibility of industrial land in Cape Town is linked closely to its CSD I Port (it was not possible to separate the CSD and the port), which is typical of a monocentric city structure. (b) There is a positive, significant, quantifiable relationship between accessibility as quantified by means of generalised cost and the economic value of industrial land, which was calculated by means of the shadow price technique. (c) There are a number of conditions that should be met for an increase in local industrial production potential to be translated into an equal amount of economic output.

AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die proefskrif som eerstens die bevindings van onlangse studies op wat die verwantskap tussen vervoer en ekonomiese ontwikkeling dokumenteer. Dit sluit die taksering van 'n aantal ekonomiese evaluasietegnieke in wat beskikbaar is om die impak van vervoer op ekonomiese ontwikkeling te voorspel. 'n Historiese oorsig word verskaf van die rol wat vervoer gespeel het in die ontwikkeling van Kaapstad. As gevolg van die feit dat die fases van ontwikkeling in die verlede internasionale ontwikkelingstendense gevolg het, word tot die gevolgtrekking gekom dat Kaapstad die globalisasie markera, wat tans internasionaal gestalte kry, sal navolg. 'n Aantal ekonomiese groeiscenarios word vir Kaapstad ontwikkel ten einde te bepaal hoe die stad die sosiodemografiese uitdagings van die volgende eeu sal hanteer. Die verwantskap tussen grondprys en die ekonomiese ontwikkelingspotensiaal van grond word omskryf, asook die faktore wat industriële grondprys bepaal. Die proses van die bepaling van die ekonomiese waarde van industriële grond word beskryf. Dit sluit die insamel en analise van besettingshuurdata van industriële dorpsgebiede, die berekening van eiendomswaarde en die berekening van die skaduprys van grond in. 'n Prosedure is ontwikkel vir die berekening van die toeganklikheid van industriële dorpsgebiede in Kaapstad. Eerstens is toeganklikheid in breë trekke gedefinieër. Dit is gevolg deur 'n bespreking van elk van die elemente van toeganklikheid, naamlik nabyheid, aansluiting en mobiliteit ten einde die faktore wat op die vlak van toeganklikheid mag impakteer te verstaan. Laastens is die vlak van toeganklikheid gekwantifiseer in terme van veralgemeende vervoerkoste. 'n Regressie-analise is onderneem ten einde die statistiese verwantskap tussen die ekonomiese waarde van industriële grond en toeganklikheid na industriële dorpsgebiede te bepaal. Die ontwikkeling van 'n numeriese model is op die regressie-analise gebaseer ten einde veranderinge in industriële grondpryse te voorspel, gegewe 'n verandering in toeganklikheid. Die model is op 'n gevallestudie toegepas. Die vernaamste gevolgtrekkings van die studie is : (a) Die toeganklikheid van industriële grond in Kaapstad is nou gekoppel aan die sentrale sakekern I hawe (dit was nie moontlik om die sentrale sakekern en hawe te skei nie), wat tipies is van n monosentriese staduitleg. (b) Daar is n noemenswaardige positiewe kwantifiseerbare verwantskap tussen toeganklikheid, soos gekwantifiseer in terme van veralgemeende koste, en die ekonomiese waarde van industriële grond wat deur middel van die skaduprystegniek bereken is. (c) Daar is 'n aantal voorwaardes waaraan voldoen moet word alvorens 'n toename in plaaslike industriële produksiepotensiaal tot 'n soortgelyke toename in ekonomiese ontwikelingspotensiaal sal lei.

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