A matched study to determine a conditional logistic model for prediction of business failure in South Africa

Mota, Stephen Kopano (2001-12)

Thesis (MBA)--Stellenbosch University, 2001

Thesis

ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The subject of prediction of business failure from an academic point of view dates back to the turn of the century with the development of a single ratio, the current ratio, as an evaluation of credit-worthiness. Subsequently studies conducted have become complex using different statistical techniques and more than one variable to predict failure. The challenge in these studies has been to establish a reliable model to predict failure. The aim of this report was to find out which financial factors best predicted failure in the South African environment using a matched study by refining some elements of the study conducted by Court (1993). The data used was similar to that of Court (1993), which was independently obtained from the Bureau of Financial Analysis of the University of Pretoria. The variables used in the study were then computed from this raw data. The variables were then imputed into the stataΤΜ statical software package to run a conditional logistic regression model. As a result of a small sample size and a substantial number of missing variables in the sample size, the study did not reveal an accurate indication of the important variable. It was also found that with the instability and general complexity of conditional logistic regression the study need not have been a matched study. The recommendation is that future research be done with a larger sample size using the same methodology. It is also recommended that the data include non-financial variables.

AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die voorspelling van besigheidsmislukkings as 'n akademiese onderwerp, dateer vanaf die begin van die vorige eeu met die ontwikkeling van 'n enkele verhouding, die bedryfsverhouding, as maatstaf van kredietwaardigheid. Die toepassing van statistiese tegnieke en inkorporasie van meerdere veranderlikes het aan verdere studies 'n hoë mate van kompleksiteit verleen. Die gevolglike uitdaging was om 'n betroubare model te ontwikkel om besighiedsmislukkings akkuraat te kan voorspel. Die doel van hierdie verslag is om aan te dui welke finansiele faktore mees gepas sal wees om besigheidsmislukkings in die Suid Afrikaanse omgewing te voorspel. Die verslag gee weer die bevindinge van 'n gepaarde studie wat gegrond is op 'n verfyning van sekere elemente soos geneem uit die Court studie van 1993. Die data gebruik, is baie soos die wat die Court studie onderlê en is onafhanklik verkry vanaf die Bureau vir Finansiele Analise (Universiteit van Pretoria). Die veranderlikes wat in die studie gebruik is gebaseer op hierdie rou data en is ingesleutel en verwerk deur die stataΤΜ statistiese sagteware program na 'n kondisionele, logiese regressie model. As gevolg van 'n klein steekproef en 'n beduidenswaardige aantal ontbrekende veranderlikes in hierdie steekproef, kon die studie nie 'n belangrike veranderlike met akkuraatheid aandui nie. Dit is ook bevind dat die onstabiliteit en algemene kompleksiteit van die kondisionele, logiese regressie model die gebruik van 'n gepaarde studie onnodig gelaat het. Die aanbeveling is dat verdere navorsing dieselfde metodologie sal toepas op 'n groter steekproef. Dit word ook aanbeveel dat nie-finansiele veranderlikes by die data ingesluit word.

Please refer to this item in SUNScholar by using the following persistent URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/52084
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